European Security and increasing Russian natural gas prices and its effects on European countries
Along with the rising commodity prices around the world, the price of natural gas has also increased. price increases; Considering the approaching winter months, it brings an effect that will increase the natural gas import bills of European countries.
Along with the rising commodity prices around the world, the price of natural gas has also increased. price increases; Considering the approaching winter months, it brings an effect that will increase the natural gas import bills of European countries. Increasing prices serve to strengthen the hand against buyer countries, especially through the "energy policies" of natural gas seller countries such as the Russian Federation. Today, European countries, including Turkey, which is dependent on natural gas, faced a 'difficult' situation in which they are largely dependent on Russia's gas supply and new pricing in terms of energy. In this article, we will discuss the effects of Russian gas price increases on European countries in the context of Europe's security. We would like to discuss its effects on Turkey in another article.
Europe; It is in a vulnerable position against Russia opening and closing gas valves. Naturally, most natural gas buyer countries have tried to act with the foresight to be affected by price fluctuations at the minimum level, within the framework of their previous agreements with the Russians. However, in times of falling natural gas prices, it took advantage of this opportunity to cancel the natural gas agreements with the Russians and to procure gas from the market at the most affordable price. In any case, cold winter is at hand for countries that have canceled or expired or are about to expire gas purchase contracts. As a matter of fact, in the negotiations to sign new agreements, it is known that natural gas prices have been increasing by almost 500% as of the beginning of October 2021. As the weather gets colder, countries whose domestic gas supply will not be sufficient will be faced with the possibility of signing new contracts at the price band dictated by Russia.
Meanwhile, European countries; In these days when natural gas prices are on the rise, it has become increasingly 'vulnerable' to Russia. In other words, a new "cold war" has started between the Russian Federation and European countries. Moreover, with indirect pressure from the United States, it will probably not be possible for Germany to 'delay' the controversial Nord Stream 2 (north stream) gas pipeline project, which will bring more Russian gas to Europe via the Baltic Sea. This project, which has been realized with a total cost of 11 billion dollars, is almost on the verge of completion nowadays, exactly in line with Russia's expectations. The only factor that could delay the project's implementation these days is whether the Germans would 'consent' the valve to be opened.
Germany's resolute stance will only be possible if it follows an energy policy compatible with the USA. However, a situation of distrust towards the Biden administration began to emerge among the member states of the European Union. This attitude of the USA, which completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan as of August 31, 2021, almost without consulting its European allies, caused political discomfort in European countries. In the context of NATO and the European Union, Western countries, including the Cold War era, are uncomfortable with the unilateral world politics of their allies America; In recent years, it has increasingly sought to develop a new identity independent of the United States. In this sense, it is tried to reveal a common will. However, in crisis environments where the USA is not present, in order for Europe to be present in the field on its own, for example, to remain in Afghanistan without the USA, its current military capabilities and capabilities must be sufficient for such missions. The main problem of Europe starts here.
The EU's ability to turn to self-sufficient and independent power policies necessitates Europe to allocate more resources to the defense and security dimension. For European countries that do not see it necessary to increase their defense budgets under current conditions, developing a unique common defense identity in the near future cannot go beyond a distant vision.
In fact, Europe's efforts to create a military force for its own defense date back to the years immediately after the Second World War. Western European countries, which established the Western European Union (WEU) in 1948, preferred to transfer their defense and security needs to NATO with the establishment of NATO in 1949. Thus, the WEU, which is expected to develop as a second defense pact parallel to NATO, which is a rapidly developing defense pact, under the leadership of the victorious and resource-rich USA, has to continue its existence mainly as a political platform, as the European countries do not transfer sufficient resources to it. remained.
With the signs of the end of the Cold War beginning to be seen in 1984, the WEU began to occupy the agenda of European countries again in order to develop a common European security identity. In this period, Western European countries that turned to the formation of a military power outside the framework of NATO; The WEU is Europe's main concern for Europe's security.
He wished he had a pillar. A certain amount of progress has also been made with structuring such as the European Riot Forces and the European Corps. However, while there is NATO, which is a common defense pact based on the Atlantic, the European Union has never been successful in developing an alternative security structure to NATO through the WEU.
With the disintegration of the Soviet Union, in the process of NATO's eastward expansion, Western Europe embraced the Eastern European countries through the European Union, both economically and politically. However, in the military sense, since an alternative structure to NATO could not be realized under the umbrella of the EU, this task was assigned to NATO's eastward expansion. Thus, NATO's leadership in European defense, which is a defense pact dependent on US priorities and political guidance, has been tacitly accepted by all European countries.
With the 2000s, the EU efforts in the security perspective that emerged with the process of building the European Security and Defense Identity, especially in parallel with the international terrorism and the fight against terrorism, and the efforts to keep the peace; The unwillingness of European governments to allocate the necessary resources for defense expenditures, and the fact that there was no need to feed large armies since the Soviet threat was eliminated, in the final analysis, brought about a reduction in the armed forces in European countries and contractions in their defense budgets.
Today, the combined military force pool of European countries, which has become a military 'dwarf', is perceived as a weak power structure that stays 'away from war', except in some US-led military operations. At this point, the USA and especially the UK, which has made it an 'unchangeable policy' to act together with this country after Brexit, has started to break away from Europe in the 'defense' dimension. The USA, which did not hesitate to deploy troops in these countries in a way to eliminate the "historical fears" of NATO member Eastern European countries against the Russians; In recent years, it has undergone an axis shift in its military power. With a conscious choice, the USA started to focus on a military deployment and power projection in the Pacific Indian region that would fulfill the requirements of the strategy to contain China.
As a result, European Union countries entered a period in which they began to question the necessity of a military structure that would enable them to determine their own destiny. The event of withdrawal from Afghanistan had a cold shower effect on the Europeans in this sense. Subsequently, France, which was in a way isolated from the Pacific-Indian region, especially with the alliance of AUKUS (Australia, England and the USA); As the country with the largest defense industry and military power among the EU countries, it has sought to lead the way in addressing European defense and security needs again outside the NATO cap. Although not directly related, the rapprochement between France and Greece in recent years and the mutual efforts of these two countries to create a common defense pact, which is on the agenda these days, should be seen as a small example of the search for military restructuring in the European Union in the big picture has carried.
On the other hand, despite US warnings, the fact that Germany consented to the construction of the 2 northern stream gas pipelines in 2015, just months after the Russian occupation and subsequent annexation of part of Ukraine's territory in 2014; It has now given rise to debates within the EU about energy security and European coherence.
According to the experts of the subject, the Russian Federation; By using the 'natural gas' card, he wants to punish Europe or at least draw it closer to his own line. According to some, a kind of proxy war is being waged between the USA and Russia over the issue of gas supply to Europe. Both countries are trying to increase their share in the European market by selling natural gas (Russia) and liquefied natural gas (USA). If Nord Stream 2 is approved by Germany, Europe's largest gas consumer, and Russian gas begins to flow to Europe through this line, then US gas exports to Europe may be jeopardized.
At this point, European countries that want to get rid of a situation dependent on Russians in energy security have fallen into an "energy security dilemma" between "blocking" and "opening" the Nord Stream 2 line. If the Nord Stream 2 line opens, it will be possible to buy gas cheaper from the Russians, but in the long run, this will cause Europe to become more and more dependent on the Russians. If the line is not opened, the voices that will rise in the European public, which may face the danger of not being warmed enough in cold winter conditions, may put European governments in political difficulties. At this point, all European countries agree that Europe must somehow find a way to move away from Russia without jeopardizing its energy security. The more the natural gas supply to Europe can be diversified, the less the risk will be for European countries.
In this sense, in recent years, in line with the expectations and wishes of the USA, there has been an increasing amount of LNG supply initiatives from this country in Europe. In order to overcome the Russian pressure and to keep natural gas prices at a reasonable level, the USA must not leave Europe without gas in the cold winter months. The coming cold winter months will serve as a kind of litmus paper in the process of rebuilding Europe's trust in the US in terms of natural gas and energy security, in the last months when the Biden administration has experienced an erosion of trust due to the withdrawal of Afghanistan in the eyes of Europeans.
There are lessons that Turkey will definitely learn for the coming years, if not this year, from the experiences of Europe, which is supported by the USA and goes in search of diversity in gas supply. Instead of Turkey's increasing dependence on Russian natural gas, diversification in supply stands in front of Turkey as the most basic policy to be followed, as it will increase large natural gas storage opportunities.
In this respect, the EU's readiness for a cold war without the USA has come to a point where it can be measured by the success of their struggle for energy security against the Russians this winter. European countries, which felt the imminent threat of the Russian armies in terms of security during the Cold War, now faced the cold face of the Russians over natural gas. Nowadays, as Europe enters the winter, it has been talked about that Russia will pursue a policy of bringing Europe on the road with the cold until it activates the Nord Stream 2 line. Waiting for the Germans to give 'acceptance' to this line, the Kremlin has signaled that it is ready to cut the gas valve it gives to Europe, if necessary, and to push the prices up in the process, until it gets this permission.
In this regard, Putin has reserved a Russian government meeting, which he recently reflected on the international media, for discussions on the "natural gas" to be delivered to Europe. The Kremlin has stated that it is ready to negotiate new long-term contracts for the sale of gas, declaring that it is wrong for European countries to cancel most of their long-term gas contracts in exchange for spot deals, which is not true. On the other hand, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that German consent to the pipeline could help cool prices.
According to European Commission data, about 90% of the gas used by EU countries is imported from outside the Union. Leaving Norway aside, the security of the gas supply is entirely at the mercy of the Russians. European governments; While contemplating the necessity of energy independence and the fact that existing pipelines strengthen Russia and that Europe should find a solution for energy security, rising prices put the issue at the top of the EU agenda.
