Europeans will survive this winter, but will they not forget the frost?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently escalated his invasion of Ukraine by formally annexing four regions of Ukraine partially occupied by the Russian Army. In a speech accompanying these invasions and annexations, Putin made it clear that he sees the current war as an existential struggle with the collective West to shape the future of the entire world.

Meanwhile, Russian troops in eastern Ukraine have suffered a series of humiliating defeats in recent weeks. They have even been forced to retreat in disarray. Putin's response to the setbacks and defeats of his army is to raise the bar even higher. In addition to annexing around 15% of Ukraine's territory, he announced Russia's first mobilization since the Second World War. The Russian military is ready to use nuclear weapons if necessary to achieve its goals in the war in Ukraine, which it launched on February 24.

In addition to threatening to use nuclear weapons, the Kremlin has also launched attacks on a number of strategic facilities that are vital for the Ukrainian people. While the world was busy wondering whether Putin would use nuclear weapons, the Russian military carried out a series of pre-planned missile attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure in early September. As a result, large parts of northern and eastern Ukraine were temporarily without electricity. There were also floods in the south of the country.

Putin himself confirmed that these attacks were a sign of things to come if Russia's fortunes on the battlefield continued to deteriorate. In a speech on September 16, following Ukraine's successful Kharkiv counter-offensive, Putin said that "not long ago the Russian army hit some sensitive targets in Ukraine. Let's take this as a warning", he was quite serious. In a sense, the message to the Ukrainians was, don't try to take back your occupied territories, otherwise we will hit civilian facilities and infrastructure all over Ukraine, and you will be in a worse situation than today.

Ukrainians are aware of the threat posed by large-scale attacks on the country's civilian infrastructure and are preparing accordingly. With winter fast approaching, the Ukrainian government is calculating the likelihood of power outages and heating failures in all regions during periods of intense cold weather. Nonetheless, everyone knows that water, electricity and gas shortages in the aftermath of possible Russian aggression will have severe consequences for the civilian population.

The situation in the European Union is of course not as dramatic as in Ukraine, but the inhabitants of the EU countries are also facing the prospect of an extremely difficult winter due to the Kremlin's gas cuts. For several months now, Russia has made it clear that it plans to use its energy resources as a weapon in its conflict with the West. It seems that Moscow is already turning a deaf ear to the humanitarian problems that will arise from its energy resources. According to some experts, the recent explosions in the Nord Stream pipelines were carried out by the Russians in order to force EU leaders to end their support for Ukraine. This is the latest episode in a drama that seems designed to prevent Europe from receiving Russian gas in the coming winter months. Putin, on the other hand, has implied that the attacks on the pipelines serve American interests, forcing Europe to use LNG instead of Russian gas, and that the United States should therefore be held responsible for this action. In the end, even though there is a propaganda war going on, these explosions point to serious problems in the flow of natural gas.

This sets the stage for what some observers predict will be the most difficult European winter since the Second World War. According to World Bank forecasts, energy prices will rise further. Rising energy bills are already pushing up the cost of living and inflation is rising to record levels across Europe. Higher prices for staples and other essentials will hurt poor households and could fuel political instability across the continent. 

Since Russia launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February this year, there have been calls from some quarters within the EU for Moscow to make concessions and end the war. Putin's recent escalatory actions and irrational anti-Western rhetoric have all but destroyed any illusions about the possibility of reaching a negotiated settlement with the current Russian regime. 

According to some experts, European leaders must realize that Ukraine is close to victory and continue to support it at the highest level. Together with the Ukrainians, the whole of Europe must be able to show that Putin cannot break the Ukrainian resistance by threatening to use nuclear weapons or by energy blackmail, and the European spirit must be revived.

The last time Europe faced a threat similar to the challenges posed by Putin's Russia was during the rise of Nazi Germany in the 1930s. Like Hitler, Putin embraced ethnic unity, attacking Ukraine under the guise of reuniting the Slavs. According to some experts, Kremlin propagandists will say that Ukraine is a futile effort against Russia and that the economic suffering inflicted on European families is in vain. Such messages are likely to resonate with millions of people in Europe who are shivering in their cold homes, struggling to provide for themselves and their families. Calls will inevitably increase for a compromise deal that would condemn millions of Ukrainians in the currently occupied parts of the country to a terrible future under Russian rule.

Those who advocate European unity and integrity believe that an all-out European resistance against the Russians is necessary. They advise focusing on the bigger picture. If Putin's invasion of Ukraine does not result in a decisive defeat, they argue, the consequences for Europe will be far more dire than the current energy shortages and economic woes. Russia's possible success in Ukraine would pave the way for the rest of Eastern Europe to follow suit. All European countries would feel the political chill as a victorious Moscow asserts its newfound authority to undermine the EU and fuel political extremism across the continent. Generations of democratic progress will be jeopardized. Europeans must be prepared to pay a price to protect Europe's core values of freedom, dignity and democratic rights. 

The coming winter promises to be a difficult time for European democracy, unity and the future. If Europeans survive this winter as one and as a whole, it will be possible to say: "Europeans will survive this winter, but they will not forget the frost!"

References:

Oleksii Reznikov, Atlantic Council, "A strong Ukraine is the best solution to Europe's Russia problem", August 23, 2022. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/a-strong-ukraine-is-the-best-solution-to-europes-russia-problem/

Kira Rudik, Atlantic Council, "European unity is essential as Putin prepares to weaponize winter", 3 October 2022. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/european-unity-is-essential-as-putin-prepares-to-weaponize-winter/