Footsteps of the Approaching War

The "Cold War" was the name of the post-World War II world order in the 20th century, which Hobsbawm called the Age of Extremes.

This order, which ended with the collapse of the USSR in 1991, was replaced by a decade of "warm peace" in which weapons were hardly used except in Kosovo. The most important feature of this period was that globalization was felt all over the world. While the capitalist world benefited greatly from the blessings of globalization, all kinds of illegal structures, including terrorism, began to emerge in the underdeveloped countries, which could not get enough share from the wealth, and the terrorism that gradually flourished attacked the center of the capitalist world in 2001.

The world order of the decade after 2001 was determined by the doctrine of "you are either with us or with the terrorists", which Bush Jr. tried to dictate to the whole world after the September 11 attacks. 

In this decade of the US's desire to increase its influence in the world, particularly in the Middle East, and to reintroduce the bipolar system as the world order, the US-led states fought against terrorism and states that allegedly supported terrorism. The US and its allies benefited from this asymmetrical process, which played right into the hands of the US.

The Syrian crisis, which began in 2011, changed the world order once again. The policy of the great powers to fight terrorism has turned into a fight against each other using terrorism. "Cold peace" was the best name for this new world order.

What was this "cold peace"?

"Cold peace" can be defined as states that are at peace and even in the same partnership, without disturbing the peace between them, using economics, terrorism, proxies and show of force to realize their own interests, not with weapons, but with messages and policies of "I tell you my daughter, you understand my daughter-in-law" and fighting without entering into a hot conflict. 

This is exactly how the war in Syria reflected on the international arena. For a while, states maintained this order through proxy wars. Each state tried to achieve its goals through its proxies. America used the PYD, Turkey used the FSA, Iran used Hezbollah, Russia used Assad. The common enemy and the common tool was DAESH. When it was finished, its rope was pulled.

The proxy started to return to the nobles after DAESH lost its power. Turkey, by taking the proxy of fighting the remaining elements of DAESH, tried to gain a strong position in the possible war of the nobles. The main goal was to destroy the PKK and the PYD and not to allow any fait accompli that might occur next to it. The US, on the other hand, positioned the proxy it used, the PYD, differently from the PKK, and with the meddlesomeness of protecting this illegal organization, it tried to economically damage its partner, Turkey, which is its ally in many international organizations, in order to act politically with it. And it has succeeded to a certain extent. The fragile Turkish economy, negatively affected by the refugees, especially those from Syria, and unable to take the necessary austerity measures and cut consumption, succumbed to this "cold peace" policy of the US and the cost of living skyrocketed. 

While the cold war period, which turned into cold peace, was being considered whether it would turn into a hot war in the context of the Syrian crisis, the hot war suddenly erupted in another region, Ukraine. With this war, which started on February 24th of 2022 and continued with increasing intensity, the world order began to be reshaped. Russia attacked Ukraine under the assumption that it could change the world order, and it continues to attack Ukraine without any kind of target, without discriminating between civilians and soldiers. The West's intensified support for Ukraine against Russia, which is trying to bring Ukraine to its knees, increases the likelihood that the war will be prolonged.

The world is being subjected to cycles of cold, heat, peace and war, in cycles of ten years. The winners are always the same: the rich and the arms dealers. The losers are the same: the poor and the victims of armed attacks. The movie and the cycle continues to rewind and rewind. 

With the Russia-Ukraine war, the cold peace evolves into a full-scale hot war, the world once again sees the dirty face of war, with the death of civilians and the destruction of buildings. 

The political atmosphere is becoming increasingly tense.

The hot war between states, which was expected in the Middle East, but which emerged in Ukraine, must somehow end, must be ended before it leads the world to the third great war. Three will be bigger, more destructive and far more corrosive than one or two. There are no winners in wars, and big wars wear out, dry up and destroy all components. 

Unfortunately, the world is heading towards self-destruction unless it takes measures to ensure that its politicians act rationally. 

Atatürk's motto "Peace at home and in the world" is far better than all wars, hot and cold. 

If this motto permeates all the great powers that shape world politics, it could save the world from a new war.

Let us hope so.