GAP's International Strategic Importance

GAP Project

The targeted completion years of the project were stated as 2005 in the GAP Master Plan, 2010 in the GAP Regional Development Plan and 2012 in the GAP Action Plan, but these targets were not achieved. According to the 2019 Final Status Report published by GAP-RDA, the realization rate of energy projects is 78% and the realization rate of irrigation projects is 53%. (1) 

The constant postponement of the completion of the Project has been caused by a number of factors, including terrorism in the region, the constant tension and conflict in the Middle East, and the deterioration in Turkey's public financing balance. In his book published in 2011 (2), the author made the following observation on the completion date of the project. 

"It seems very difficult to achieve the planned returns from the GAP before 2023. Even if continuity of financing is ensured, this difficulty will arise from the fact that the project is an integrated project, involving 40 public institutions and 270 projects, and that it will take a long time to prepare the land and farmers for irrigation investments. It would be more appropriate to accept the year 2040 for the final development status at the whole Basin scale."

The current status of the Project suggests that 2040 is an accurate prediction for the ultimate development at the basin scale. However, it should not be forgotten that the returns from this project in the field of energy have already been received for a long time. In other areas, it should be noted that developments are taking place as sub-projects at the provincial scale. For example, in 2019, the share of the GAP region in Turkey's exports was 5.34% and 235,000 people were employed. (3)

International Dimension of GAP 

Since GAP is an integrated project based on the development of transboundary waters, it has also affected international relations. In this context, problems of international dimension emerged between Syria, Iraq and Turkey regarding the sharing of transboundary waters, which strained the internal affairs and bilateral and trilateral relations of the countries, especially after the GAP.

During the development of the projects in the GAP, Turkey's water policy was shaped and implemented on the basis of not victimizing the riparian countries. Turkey has emphasized many times officially and unofficially that it sees water as a means of peace and cooperation in the region. However, it was observed that the objections of the riparian countries of the Tigris and Euphrates increased and internationalized as the GAP project took shape. 

There have been major internal conflicts in Iraq since the early 2000s and in Syria since 2011, but development in the GAP has continued, albeit slowly.  These developments, which have caused great economic destruction in the region, and the increasing impact of climate change indicate that the transboundary waters of the GAP should be evaluated with a different paradigm than in the past, which would be more appropriate for the future and stability of the countries in the region. In other words, the new paradigm should evolve from the division of water to the prioritization of water benefits for regional food security.  

The basis of this new understanding of regional cooperation and development should be to maximize the potential of the countries in the region with an understanding of mutual benefit. For this purpose, work should be done on joint projects for the reconstruction and development of the region.

The countries of the region have recently weakened economically and politically and the influence of global powers has increased in these countries. In this sense, the countries of the region will not be able to determine and implement their own future strategies with a unique political will in the near future. This reveals that the projects in the region can be created under the coordination of a common central unit in which global powers are also active. 

In the event that preparations are made today, proposals on the equitable, rational and efficient use of water and ensuring water and food security can be made and common goals can be set. In this study, GAP can be evaluated as an integrated infrastructure opportunity that can initially provide great benefits to the countries in the region and then generate common benefits. 

In short, GAP is a concrete project that can realize mutual cooperation through joint trade and investments for the medium-term stabilization of the region. In sum, GAP has emerged as an infrastructure that can offer a wide range of possibilities to utilize the benefits to be generated from water for the stability of the entire region.

GAP Region, Tigris and Euphrates River Basins and riparian countries 

GAP, an integrated development project planned during the Cold War era of global economic and international relations, is now a project bordering a region that is being politically reshaped. Political developments in the climate and in the region have expanded the limits of GAP's regional benefits.

Status of countries in world food trade (4)

Food Security for the Arabian Peninsula 

With rapid population growth in the Middle East and the Arabian Peninsula, food demand is increasing and diversifying. The UN map in Figure 6 shows the Arabian Peninsula as a net food importer. There is an annual food market of 30 billion dollars in this region. This food market is dominated by distant countries such as the Union, the USA, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and Canada. (5) 

Prof. Dr. Ahmet Şahinöz said in an interview (6) "It is not possible for Middle Eastern countries to meet their food demands with their own production due to geographical reasons. Therefore, the food imports of these countries will continue to increase for many years. Turkey needs to go for a production planning in the GAP region and make production planning in accordance with the structure of the food markets of the Middle Eastern countries."

With the completion of GAP, a significant portion of the demand in this market can be met from production in GAP under much more favorable conditions. When relations in the region are handled with a win-win approach instead of zero-sum, geographical proximity, similarity in consumption patterns and consumption habits will facilitate cooperation in this area. However, it is not unlikely that political developments in the region, together with climate change, will lead to the securitization of water and foster instability by increasing the crisis of trust between countries. However, despite all these negative possibilities, what Turkey needs to do in GAP should be re-planned in the light of past experiences and implemented rapidly. GAP is a project that will offer many opportunities for stability and cooperation in the Arabian Peninsula and will strengthen Turkey's hand. 

Some Factors Delaying the Completion of the GAP

The reasons delaying the completion of the GAP in 2005 as planned, or more precisely, further progress in the project, can be listed as follows (7)

- Institutional factors such as centralized management, cumbersome bureaucracy, lack of institutional capacity and lack of coordination between government agencies, 

- GAP-BKİ's administrative structure and administrative factors such as indefinite tenure, lack of institutional capacity and authority, 

- Economic factors such as insufficient financial resources, inadequate public and private investment, 

- Security factors such as the prevention of the private sector from investing in the region due to PKK terrorism,

- Political factors such as lack of political will and political stability 

Instead of Last Word 

The continuous expansion and prolongation of the GAP has eliminated the possibility of tangible and positive impacts of the project, especially on a regional scale. The GAP has been a bundle of many projects, but it has moved away from the result of a total regional development project with concrete objectives. This has dampened enthusiasm for the GAP and partially dampened expectations. However, despite the fact that GAP has been going on for nearly half a century, it has the characteristic of being a project that does not stop and is not blocked. This situation offers us the opportunity to revisit and complete the GAP today.   

The negative developments in the world since the beginning of the 21st century, particularly climate change and international security-oriented developments, have brought the food security policies of countries to the forefront. With this understanding, many developed countries have purchased or leased agricultural land in many countries, especially in Africa.

These efforts to ensure food security are particularly prominent in countries with limited water and land resources, such as the countries of the Arabian peninsula. 

This situation increases the international strategic importance of a project such as GAP, which is located in Mesopotamia and the fertile crescent region, which has contributed greatly to the development of history with its water and soil resources. 

When international developments on a global scale, their regional consequences and the risks posed by climate change are analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach, the increase in the strategic importance of GAP can be easily seen. Turkey's new plans for the GAP, which will be implemented by reading and evaluating these developments very well, will ease Turkey's hand in the near future. However, it should not be ignored that the increasing strategic importance of the GAP will also be within the sphere of interest of the global powers that are very active in the region.

Footnotes

(1) Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi Son Durum 2019 GAP BKİB S.2

(2) Yıldız D. Özbay Ö (2011) Şu Fırat’ın Suyu Truva Yayınları. İstanbul 

(3) GAP Broşürü 2020 “GAP Büyük Türkiye “T.C. Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanlığı Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi Bölge Kalkınma İdaresi Başkanlığı. Şanlıurfa www.gap.gov.tr 

(4) Countries Are Starting to Hoard Food, Threatening Global Trade (March 30 2020) https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/31071-countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade erişim: 17 07 2020.

(5) Prof. Dr. Ahmet Şahinöz: "GAP Ortadoğu'yu Doyurur” Söyleşi (2011). ORSAM https://www.orsam.org.tr/tr/prof-dr-ahmet-sahinoz-gap-ortadogu-yu-doyurur-2/ erişim: 15 07 2020.

(6) Prof. Dr. Ahmet Şahinöz: "GAP Ortadoğu'yu Doyurur” Söyleşi (2011). ORSAM https://www.orsam.org.tr/tr/prof-dr-ahmet-sahinoz-gap-ortadogu-yu-doyurur-2/ erişim: 15 07 2020.

(7) Bilgen A. (2018) 1977’den 2017’ye Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi (GAP): GAP’ın 40 Yılı Üzerine Nitel ve Çok Boyutlu Bir Değerlendirme Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, Cilt 73, No. 3, 2018, s. 811 -840