international-relations

Is a Serbia-Kosovo War about to commence?

the Western world, and NATO and European Union member states in particular, including Turkey, do not want a repeat of similar events, including the genocides that followed the break-up of the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. That is why they decided to immediately reinforce the NATO military force in Kosovo. Will this swift reaction prevent things from escalating? Can events be brought under control without a new war between Serbia and Kosovo? These questions will be answered in the coming days...

Europe's delicate balance of security and stability is entering a new phase in the crisis in Kosovo, with the long-standing conflict between ethnic Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo worryingly escalating into conflict and flaring up again. The new crisis in Kosovo, in the face of escalating tensions in addition to Russia's ongoing occupation of Ukraine, further heightens security concerns in the Balkans. A new Russia-Ukraine war is feared. This is because the Western world, and NATO and European Union member states in particular, including Turkey, do not want a repeat of similar events, including the genocides that followed the break-up of the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. That is why they decided to immediately reinforce the NATO military force in Kosovo. Will this swift reaction prevent things from escalating? Can events be brought under control without a new war between Serbia and Kosovo? These questions will be answered in the coming days...

What is the background to the Kosovo conflict?

Kosovo, an autonomous region within the former Yugoslavia, was located in the south of Serbia and had a majority ethnic Albanian population. In 1989, Serbia ended Kosovo's autonomous status and Kosovo Albanians opposed this decision. In 1998, as a result of open conflict between Serbian military and police forces and Kosovo Albanians, around 1,500 Kosovo Albanians were killed and 400,000 were forced to flee their homes.

Taking a lesson from Bosnia and Herzegovina, NATO, led by the United States, realized that there was no short-term solution to the problem. NATO decided that the only option to end the human tragedy, albeit belatedly, and to restore stability in the region was to resort to military means and launched an air campaign on March 24, 1999. The operation, which ended on June 10, 1999 with the establishment of peace, lasted 78 days.

Turkey participated in the NATO operation in Kosovo with elements of its air force. Turkey initially participated in the operation with 10 F-16 aircraft based in Ghedi/Italy. Turkish aircraft flew 444 sorties during the operation, totaling more than 2,000 hours day and night. A decision was taken to allow fighter jets based in Turkey to participate in the operation and the operation was terminated at that time. A frigate from the NATO Permanent Naval Force Mediterranean in the Adriatic and a mine hunting ship from the Permanent Mine Force Mediterranean participated in the naval operation.

It is worth mentioning as a footnote. During the Kosovo Operation, there was no consensus within NATO for a ground operation to be launched if needed. Especially Germany and Greece were opposed to a ground operation. In addition, Greece did not want to make its bases available to the Allies, which might be necessary for a ground operation, and it became clear that an air operation would be sufficient, so a ground operation was abandoned.

On June 10, the NATO operation was terminated as a result of the stabilization and establishment of peace. Since then, Kosovo has been administered by the "United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo" (UNMIK) established by Security Council Resolution 1244. Meanwhile, in line with the same resolution, the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) started to operate in the Kosovo region as part of the Operation in Support of Peace (OPS). A total of 31 countries, 23 NATO member countries and 8 non-NATO member countries, have troops in KFOR. Turkey is also among the countries sending troops to KFOR. Turkey is currently supporting NATO's operation in Kosovo with a Motorized Infantry Company, Liaison and Monitoring Teams in KFOR and providing training support to the Kosovo Armed Forces.

Kosovo Declares Independence

In Kosovo, where peace was maintained with the support of KFOR, Kosovars finally declared their independence from Serbia on February 17, 2008, based on the Ahtisaari Plan supported by the international community. On July 22, 2010, the International Court of Justice ruled that Kosovo's independence did not constitute a violation of international law.

Turkey recognized the Kosovars' independence decision on February 18, 2008 and immediately opened the Turkish Embassy in Pristina. Subsequently, the Turkish Consulate General was opened on September 1, 2015 in Prizren, where the Turkish community in Kosovo is densely populated. Turkey also maintains good relations with Serbia, which has been experiencing some disputes with the Republic of Kosovo after independence, and supports the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue Process in order to ensure stability and peace in the region.

The population of the Republic of Kosovo, whose capital is Pristina, is around 1,750,000, of which 5% (85-90 thousand people) are of Serbian origin. The ethnic composition is as follows: Albanian 92.93%, Serb 5%, Turkish 1.08%, Bosniak 1.6%, Roma 0.5%, Ashkali 0.9%, Egyptian 0.7%, Gorani 0.6%, other 0.05%. The country is governed predominantly by citizens of Albanian origin, with President Vjosa Osmani Sadriu and Prime Minister Albin Kurti also of Albanian origin. Albanian and Serbian are the main languages spoken in the country.

Kosovo's foreign policy is shaped in line with the goals of increasing its visibility on international platforms and the number of countries recognizing its independence, securing membership in the UN and the Council of Europe, and integrating with the European Union and Euro-Atlantic institutions.

A New Crisis Between Serbia and Kosovo

As June 10 approaches, there are assessments that the peace established in Kosovo on June 10, 1999 is about to break down again 24 years later. In a press conference on 30 May, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that 700 NATO troops from the NATO Response Force (NRF) would arrive in Kosovo by 31 May to reinforce the KFOR already in the country, and that a Reserve Battalion of approximately 1,000 troops would be placed on High Readiness to deploy to Kosovo within hours.

NATO's precautionary measures were prompted by an attack on KFOR forces during demonstrations organized by the Serbian minority in northern Kosovo, in which 11 soldiers were wounded. The crisis is feared to escalate rapidly.

Last year, the Kosovo government announced that it would make it compulsory for all vehicles in the country to use its license plates. But the ethnic Serb minority, which largely does not recognize Kosovo's independence, resisted the decision and continued to use Serbian license plates. This simple disagreement further strained already tense relations, leading to roadblocks, armed attacks and even the postponement of local elections. I believe that the tensions of two days ago are a continuation of this, but in a more organized manner.

Is Serbia Escalating the Kosovo Crisis?

To put it more generally, the Kosovo tension is essentially caused by the northern Serbian provinces, which have a problem of subordination to Kosovo. Serbia is also taking a stance in favor of the Kosovo Serbs and gives the impression that it is pursuing a policy in this direction. So much so that it is alleged that a Serbian policeman named Dragan, a non-Kosovo Serbian on duty in the Serbian town of Rudare, was sent by Vucic to organize violent incidents in Kosovo. Meanwhile, some 50-60 KFOR soldiers are reported to have been wounded during the clashes between Serbian demonstrators and Kosovo Police in Kosovo. Eleven of these soldiers belong to the Italian task force. According to Kosovo Serbs, KFOR is characterized as a NATO force helping to expel the remaining Serbs from Kosovo and Metohija. It is also claimed that most of the Serbs clashing with NATO troops are civilian policemen brought from Serbia and Wagner-affiliated militias, also based in northern Kosovo.

Meanwhile, Milorad Dodik (President of the Republika Srpska in Bosnia-Herzegovina and head of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats), who visited Putin last week, is believed to have met with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić after the visit, and the events erupted after that. There are warnings that a similar crisis in Kosovo could soon erupt in Bosnia-Herzegovina. It is also rumored that Moscow is behind the events and aims to squeeze the Western world, which supports Ukraine and imposes sanctions on it, through Balkan crises.

As tensions in Kosovo exploded, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic put the Serbian Army on high alert last Friday (May 26). He even ordered the army to "mobilize" towards the Kosovo border. Vucic also said he would adopt a defense planning aimed at strengthening the country's defense capabilities and that the highest alert level would be maintained "until further notice" to protect its people.

Other things are also happening that are exacerbating the tensions. For example, demonstrators of Serbian origin marching towards Kosovo chanted: "Kosovo is Serbia! Always has been and always will be!" chanting slogans, raising tensions. The fact that this small group of Kosovo Serbs marched under the name of Crusader march with the slogan "Od Jadrana do Iran'a nece biti Muslimana (From the Adriatic to Iran, there will be no Muslims left)" is also considered as a revival of some historical problems in the Balkans geography based on centuries-old religious and ethnic discrimination in the region over the name Kosovo.

On the other hand, some argue that the conflict between Kosovo and Serbia could have been resolved through a territorial exchange, had it been prevented in time. However, since this train missed at the beginning, this solution seems unlikely nowadays. The tensions between the parties are unlikely to ease.

Conclusion

On the one hand, the deployment of NATO troops to the region, giving the appearance of looking out for Albanians against Serbs, and, according to some, NATO's provocation, will exacerbate rather than resolve existing tensions. NATO should not be so harsh as to make the Serbs feel victimized. It should not pump blood into the veins of Albanian nationalism. But neither should Russian influence in the region be allowed to grow. Really difficult balances.

Otherwise, there is a danger that something similar to the Ukraine-Russia war could happen in the Balkans, between Kosovo and Serbia. According to the statements made, the Western world wants to take control of the situation in Kosovo and is trying to prevent the crisis from deepening and turning into a war. However, it is not yet clear whether the West, which 'encouraged' Ukraine against Russia, is playing the same 'courage game' against Serbia and indirectly Russia through Kosovo.