Is the "Iron Curtain" Re-drawn in Europe?

The Ukraine issue has long ceased to be a problem between Russia and Ukraine. After sitting in the presidency, in February 2021, US President Biden said, "America is back". In the last year, the international community has always wondered how this slogan will be reflected on the field.

During the Trump era, the "America is first" approach was applied for a while. Thus, the USA seemed to be returning to a doctrine that moved away from multilateralism and amounted to isolationism. Then, this was quickly abandoned and American foreign policy was implemented within the framework of the slogan "Make America Great Again". However, this policy has led to an increase in discussions among the American nation about what the role of the USA will be in the world, has brought the disagreements to the light and the American perspectives that have been put forward have caused confusion. In fact, these debates have raised questions about how to protect the general interests and values ​​of the Western world, especially across the Atlantic, including the American allies in NATO.

In this turmoil of direction, Biden, the US president, put an end to the fight with his allies in the first place and assured them that they would be supported in European and global affairs. He drew attention to the rivals of the USA, especially Russia and China, and highlighted his belief in the continuation of American-led international cooperation. He talked about rebuilding American alliances, reconnecting the world (around the USA). Biden has used language that insists that core liberal democratic values ​​will continue to be the cornerstone of US global strategy. Contrary to the Trump era, Biden, who started to use the diplomacy army of the American State Department instead of the Pentagon and the CIA, is trying to find answers to the questions on everyone's mind about the future of the European security mechanism, with the American diplomatic missions, while Ukraine is boiling nowadays.

Two things stand out in the Ukraine question. First, Ukraine is a country of high strategic importance for Russia. It is seen as a part of its own self, and it is not accepted as a separate country. Indeed, the fact that Ukraine, one of the key countries of the former Soviet geography, becomes a part of the Western society means that all rights and interests of the Russians in the Black Sea are blocked. The Russian Federation, which consented to the independence of Ukraine due to de facto conditions in 1991, sees it as a necessity for the last ten-fifteen years to somehow tear off important pieces of land of Ukraine from this country and follows its policies in this direction. From the point of view of geopolitical and geostrategic realities, although this "power policy" implemented by Russia is meaningful, it has created a situation contrary to the realities of international law and international politics. Since March 2014, the Russians have occupied Crimea with the discourse of self-determination. This has revealed the second problem between Ukraine and Russia. Thus, the border disputes between Russia and Ukraine have moved to an insoluble point and have been carried to the present day. The Russians did not feel the need to hide that they wanted to add the Donbas region to their lands, as they did not think of giving back the Crimea. They just want to do it by disguising it and at the same time snatching something from the Western world at the same time.

Looking at the political parties in Ukraine after 2000, it is seen that three main groups stand out:

The first group is the pro-Western and pro-NATO Liberal parties, the anti-Russian parties.
The second group is the pro-Russian parties closer to the Soviet culture. Those who do not want integration with Europe and who are cold towards American policies and liberalism are in the second group.
The third group consists of parties that are among the first two groups and follow a policy based on the regional realities of Ukraine.

The last two Ukrainian presidents, Petro Poroshenko (2014-2019) and Volodymyr Zelensky (2019-present), are the ones that the pro-Western and liberal first group has brought to power. Former President Viktor Yanukovych (2010-2014) came to power as the leader of a party that is a member of the second group and as a representative of a mentality based on former communist parties. In April 2010, with the Russia-Ukraine agreement signed at the time of Yanukovych, Ukraine obtained the right to purchase natural gas from the Russians at a 30% discount. In return, the Russian Navy gained the right to extend its presence in the Black Sea for another 25 years. This meant the extension of the agreement signed between the parties in 1991 and the free use of the Black Sea by the Russian navy until 2042. This sharp policy change of Yanukovych, which was close to the Russians, caused criticism both inside and in the Western world. American ace in 2003 

Ukraine, which sent its soldiers to serve in Iraq with its troops, made a policy change in favor of Russia before it could fully integrate into the Western world, naturally, it was "not accepted" in the eyes of Europe and the United States.

Yanukovych's realization of the constitutional amendment, which guaranteed his own power for a longer period of time, caused the Western world to take action to regain Ukraine. The US-led Western world, which started to support the pro-Western people who wanted to become a member of the European Union, by using the corruption in the country, caused Ukraine to "mess up" and the protests triggered a political crisis in the country. Meanwhile, the EuroMaidan protests launched in 2013 against the Yanukovych government, which started to move away from the European Union membership process, were held with the support of 45-50% of the country's population. Meanwhile, as of March 16, 2014, the Crimean lands passed to the Russians with a “referendum”. This 'self-determination' movement, which was against international law, gave Moscow the opportunity to seize the most strategic peninsula of the Black Sea and to have the freedom of the Russian navy to use the Black Sea forever. With the seizure of Abkhazia in 2008, this strategic gain for the Russians, who secured the Eastern Black Sea Region with Crimea, further encouraged Moscow to reconstruct the former Soviet geography.

Businessman Petro Poroshenko, who led the EuroMaidan protests, won the 7 June 2014 elections and started to rule Ukraine. On the other hand, Putin, who captured Crimea, was not content with this, in a public speech he declared that he considers it a duty to protect the rights of Russian citizens and Russian-speaking communities living in Crimea and southeastern Ukraine. Immediately after this speech, Ukrainian citizens of Russian origin in Donetsk and Luhansk, especially in the Donbas region, revolted against Kiev and began to demand to be connected to Moscow. Thus, the conflicts between the Ukrainian army and the Russian-backed Donbas separatist group have become one of the main issues on the international agenda. In July 2014, a Malaysian Airlines passenger plane was "dropped" while passing through the Donbas region, causing the issue to become global in safety.

In order to end the Donbas-centered conflicts between the parties, as a result of the ceasefire negotiations held in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, with the participation of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, a Minsk ceasefire agreement was signed on September 1, 2014, but conflicts continued in Donbas from time to time. . The subsequent Minsk regulations did not provide much benefit either. During the talks, the Ukrainian side wanted the Russians to withdraw their heavy weapons from the region and allow the Russians to have full government control in the Donbas region, in addition to the ceasefire. Russia, on the other hand, wanted the Donbas region to be granted the right to autonomy (in a way, to allow the continuation of Russian influence in the Donbas). Since the Donbas region is an industrial base, Kiev does not want to lose this region to the Russians. On the other hand, Moscow thought that if it took the Donbas, Ukraine would gain power and that it would not be possible to control Kiev afterwards, and that Ukraine would eventually shift to the West, and therefore did not want to give the Donbas. For this reason, the Ukrainian government stipulated that the Donbas should be given the right to autonomy in the administration and that the people of this region should hold elections to determine their own future. This means that Donbas will pass under the control of the Russians in a similar way to the Crimea. Zelensky, who naturally got the support of the West and came to power in 2019, did not accept this policy of the Russians.

It is almost impossible for Ukraine, on its own, to oppose Moscow's power policies without the support of NATO and especially the United States. There is an asymmetrical power imbalance between the two countries. It has been a priority for Ukraine's current administrations to get the support of NATO, which considers it necessary to deploy even a small force to Eastern Europe against the Russian aggression in 2016. However, as long as Ukraine has border disputes with the Russians, it has become impossible to be accepted as a member of the European Union and NATO. The same is true for Georgia. If Ukraine is made a member of NATO despite everything, NATO's total defense against Russian soldiers entering Ukraine will arise, as per NATO's fifth article. Is NATO ready for this? I think "no!"

At this point, Putin, who has taken the Western countries completely against him, continues to give strong signals that he can invade the Donbas region with his military presence consisting of a total of 150,000 soldiers, which he keeps ready in the east of Ukraine and on the territory of Belarus, relying on the energy dependence of the Western world. Perhaps even occupying all Ukrainian lands Russian 

started to be among the options. Why did Russia, which could not add Donbas to its territory in 2014, but did not take any steps in this regard, wanted to increase the tension in 2021?

I think the answer is hidden in Biden's "America is back" policy. The Donbas issue in Ukraine proved to be a convenient argument for Washington, who wanted to contain the Russians before they could fully turn to China. The United States, acting in coordination with Ukraine's liberal-democratic government; He started to voice that the Putin regime, which is a role model for totalitarian regimes, is a threat to the interests and values ​​of the West in the context of Ukraine. As if confirming this, Putin began to follow a "policy that puts Russian power above everything else" in Europe.

This situation evoked the fears of the Cold War in Europe and made it necessary for Eastern Europe, especially Poland and the Baltic countries, to take sides with Ukraine. Russia, which reinforced its cooperation with Belarus and partially silent Moldova in return, increased its pressure on Ukraine, which it needed on the chessboard. At the beginning of 2022, the Russian military force, which suppressed the protests against the gas price hikes in Kazakhstan, continued to display a frightening appearance.

Continuing to keep in its close memory the occupations of the Russian military presence 70-80 years ago, the European society has begun to gain a widespread belief that a new iron curtain has descended on the east of the European continent. The signs of the Russians returning to expansionist policies once again brought Europe to the brink of division. This time, the division is seen as a division that can preserve the European unity to a certain extent compared to the division after the Second World War, and it is seen as less damaging. The most frightening development in this regard has been in Belarus under the leadership of Lukashenka, who cooperated with Putin in order to maintain his power and slipped into totalitarianism. The Belarusian government currently continues to host Iskander missiles, S-400s and Su-35 aircraft at four permanent military bases it provides to the Russians, and 30,000 Russian soldiers, who are kept ready to open a front against Ukraine from the north if necessary. After Belarus, which is clearly a vassal of Moscow, if no action is taken, are Moldova and Ukraine candidates to become vassal countries as well?

Acting with this fear, Poland, the Baltic countries and partly Romania and Bulgaria, in the face of the rapidly changing landscape of Eastern Europe, due to the situation in Ukraine, which defines itself in the forefront and turns it into a front country against the Russians, from the USA, France and England in particular. began to expect them to establish more permanent garrisons and military bases on its territory. Within the Normandy Format, France and Germany are pressing Kiev to accept Russian demands, let alone establishing bases, so that bloodshed is not spilled on Ukrainian soil and a possible war is also destabilizing Europe. And given that the visits of both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Moscow and Kiev were closely coordinated with Washington, the Franco-German pressure on Ukraine appears to have the tacit approval of the White House.

In a plane where the Russians are trying to pull the iron curtain again, the US actually wants to focus on turning towards the Indo-Pacific region and surrounding China. In order to do this, Biden is trying to ensure that the potential lines drawn across the Old Continent are stable. Distracted on a global scale, Washington has once again turned its attention to Europe in the face of the rising Russian threat. The American administration, which strives to stop the Russians with a policy based on sanctions threats, shows that it does not intend to take up arms for Ukraine. If taking up arms is going to be a necessity, it almost stipulates that it should happen at the initiative of the leading EU countries.

It seems that the tendency of the USA to move away from Europe will continue to play a large role in shaping American foreign policy going forward. The Ukraine crisis serves as litmus paper on whether an enduring European security order will almost certainly depend on an American force that can guarantee it. Russian interests, above all, seem to develop depending on the course of the ruptures in the transatlantic world.