Is the Leaders' Summit of Russia, Turkey and Syria a Solution?

After the meeting held in Moscow on December 28, 2022 with the participation of the defense ministers of Turkey, Syria and Russia and their senior intelligence and intelligence counterparts, it has become clear that the address of the trilateral meeting with the participation of the Foreign Ministers on the horizon will again be Moscow. However, the Russian Defense Ministry also shared the information that the parties disagreed on the classification of terrorist organizations in the trilateral meeting where the fight against refugees and terrorist organizations was discussed. While Ankara adds ISIS to the Syrian PeKaKaKa, i.e. PYD/YPG, for Damascus, terrorist organizations are the groups supported by Turkey. Russia, on the other hand, even if it tends to consider those who accept the Astana and Geneva processes as 'reasonable', emphasizes on every occasion that even these are on the 'de facto to be destroyed' list. Nonetheless, this highest-level contact since the start of the Syrian civil war reaffirms the importance of the dialogue, as it shows that a roadmap according to a planning guide has finally been put forward. 

Indeed, the step-by-step implementation of this roadmap has brought some relief to the Syrian refugees in particular and to those whose hearts are beating with Syria. However, there are so many questions that are heartbreaking. Can President Erdoğan's participation in this formation, as the opposition media in Turkey is now insisting, be considered a 'U' turn? I think no. However, let's not forget that there is a public opinion in the capital Damascus that holds Erdoğan primarily responsible for the catastrophe that has befallen the country since the beginning of the civil war. 

Could this label of 'U-turn' also be applied to regime leader Bashar al-Assad?  I would say that this is also a wrong attitude. But where should we put the salvos of the media, especially the well-known media, who are urging Bashar not to engage in such an act at all costs?  Based on the assumption that a meeting with Erdogan could influence the elections, the most typical sign of this is the call that if the government comes to power, all Syria's demands, including compensation, will be met, Turkish troops will be withdrawn from secure areas, but only if Erdogan is not met. 

It is an undeniable fact that there can be no permanent confrontation or rancor between states that lasts forever and to the end. This is the necessity of rationality, pragmatism, acting according to rational principles in reaching the truth. Mutual interests of states require this, these are indispensable principles. The late Suleyman Demirel's aphorism "yesterday is yesterday, today is today", which he uttered for every new conjunctural situation, also marks the turning point of today's Turkey-Syria relations. It is an inevitable principle that every state has to protect the interests of its own nation by uniting with the other states on minimum commonalities for the benefit of its own nation. In this respect, it cannot and should not be said that you were bad yesterday, how can you come together today? The systematic, planning guide and road map of the talks initiated in Moscow under the mediation of the RF towards the "Erdoğan-Esad-Putin Summit" has been a correct, timely and appropriate move.  

The civil war, which was organized and motivated behind closed doors under the mask of the Arab Spring and evolved into an inhuman chaos, not only paralyzed Syria economically, but also caused the loss of almost all its economic assets. Hundreds of thousands of children, women and the elderly have lost their lives as a result of crimes against humanity in Syria since 2011, while millions of people have fled their country and found themselves in a struggle for survival in unhealthy conditions, even if they have been admitted to the EU as refugees. The erosion of the regime's sovereignty over resources and territories has eroded the pillars that sustain the economy, resulting in unprecedented budget deficits, balance of payments deficits, public debt, trade deficits, inflation, foreign exchange, investment, savings and unemployment figures unprecedented in the country's history. These figures have led to negative growth and economic contraction, making society poor and needy. (1) 

The deterioration of the economic situation in Syria, the current economic paralysis and chaos will lead to the military collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime, and Assad is faced with the prospect of accepting a political solution imposed from the outside along with military and economic collapse.  This is an important achievement. There is no doubt that these gains are not only based on the future of the regime's own political life, but also on the permanence of the Baath Party, which has been in power for seventy years. When the hoped-for strategic gains, especially the permanence of the Ba'ath Party in power, were expressed in Moscow under the mediation of Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, regime leader Assad showed almost no resistance, if not no resistance at all. This is because the most important gain of this stance is the expectation that it will make it impossible for the United States to remain in the region. 

It is an undeniable fact that a possible security agreement between Damascus and Ankara could leave the Kurds, who have been artificially turned into a core-state in the region, without a choice. In this case, the Kurds, who were treated as stateless in Syria in the past, and who have changed the demographic structure in the region with the help of the US, are now worried that Damascus may be forced to agree to their conditions. In this case, it is thought that the 'Syrian PYD', which has established a de facto artificial cantonal administration in the region with the military support and assistance of the US, and insists on this administration, may make it impossible for it to remain in the region. The fact that Mazlum Apti, the leader of the PYD/YPG, has settled in a villa in a US base outside the 32-kilometer strip strengthens this argument.  

Turkey emphasizes on every occasion that the US, which voices the argument that "the Assad regime's atrocities should be carefully evaluated", is against normalization. Since the rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus positively concerns millions of Syrians, Turkey states on almost every ground that all efforts are aimed at stopping the civil war in Syria. The US is relatively more concerned about one issue. Turkey's efforts may upset the balances created in Syria in favor of the US, and there is a strong possibility that the Arab tribes who joined the SDF, the 'Syrian PeKaKaKaKa', with the encouragement of the US may change sides. It should not be forgotten that a change of allegiance, especially in oil and water regions, is a scenario that has been talked about for a long time. (2)

Regrettably, as mentioned above, the main opposition in Turkey tends to continue the Damascus regime's position of the past until the elections. Why? Let's not ask why, we tried to understand this situation two weeks ago from the content of the CHP's message to Damascus and we made concrete comments on this issue. The letter in question was leaked to the press by the Syrian Foreign Ministry while it was being delivered to Assad by CHP's Hasan Akgöl and Mehmet Güzelmansur through the Baath Party. (3) 

In this letter Kılıçdaroğlu wrote to Assad: "A meeting with Erdoğan may affect the elections. In our government, all Syria's demands including compensation will be met. We will also withdraw all our troops, but do not meet with Erdoğan". While the presence of PYD/YPG, the Syrian PeKaKa, which attacks Turkey with missiles and rocket launchers, and the security problems of our country were not mentioned in the letter, the promise to withdraw all troops in the region revealed an exemplary picture. I think it would be useful to note that the opposition mentality represented by Kılıçdaroğlu, who promises that they will not hesitate to take steps that will turn the security strip built by cleaning the region from terrorism by shedding the blood of martyrs into a terrorist corridor, has previously prevented the parliament from passing the parliamentary resolution authorizing the cross-border operations of the heroic Mehmetçik by voting 'no' many times. (4) 

In an environment of distrust of President Erdogan in Damascus following such moves by the opposition in Turkey, this normalization proposal, which has been recently voiced by Erdogan himself, has been seen as a pre-election maneuver. According to Al-Watan newspaper, Syrian officials said 'yes' to the normalization process with Turkey, while Damascus acted according to its own independent decision. According to a source who spoke to al-Watan, the ministerial meeting would not have taken place if things had not gone the way Damascus wanted and in an acceptable manner during the intelligence-level meetings. (2) 

Not only has Damascus rejected the 'Syrian PeKaKaKa' demands for autonomy, it has also failed to make progress in its efforts at political reconciliation, even when relations with Turkey were severed. Damascus' opening to Turkey clearly shows that it is convinced that both the US and the 'Syrian PeKaKaKa' are convinced of its demise. The US Caesar Sanctions Act and Western sanctions are suffocating Syria, making reconstruction impossible and blocking countries that want to rebuild bridges with Damascus. Turkey is likewise aligned with the Syrian regime under CAATSA, the US Countering Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. The Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) has been facing embargo-like sanctions since April 7, 2021. Under this sanctions law, Turkey cannot obtain export licenses from the US, cannot benefit from loans from the US and its affiliated international financial institutions, and, just like the Syrian regime, countries that want to continue their relations with Ankara are blocked. 

In order to make a major contribution to a positive solution to the Syrian refugee problem, it is Turkey that maintains the upper hand in the situation for the Turkish Armed Forces and/or the SMO to carry out the fifth operation in order to complete the 32 X 444 km of secure zone that remains after the operation of the Turkish Armed Forces and/or the SMO in Tel Rifaat, Manbij and Ayn al-Arab (Kobani) and the subsequent establishment of the security strip. While Iran is struggling with its internal problems and Russia is busy in Ukraine, the Republic of Turkey is the only country capable of tearing the nightmare that the Syrian regime is in. The never-ending diet that is being paid to Iran and Russia, who have been leading Syria astray in the face of a proxy war, has gone beyond Omer Seyfettin's story "Diet" and turned the state of depression into a nightmare. In any case, limiting the unpayable diet necessitates diversifying Ankara-Damascus relations. In other words, Turkey is not only the only neighbor with the potential to strike this balance, but also a regional actor.

It is the trust, the erosion of trust, that has been lost the most during the civil war, making it imperative and necessary to rebuild trust in Syria. Yes, it is difficult to repair the erosion of trust in a short period of time, societies have become so distant from each other with feelings of revenge. Undoubtedly, the opposition, which is trying to settle in the safe zone and has tied its future to Turkey's protection, is at the highest level of concern and anxiety about whether it can engage with the regime, which wants the Syrians to return. This delicate issue has naturally led to protests in the region. From Idlib, Azaz, al-Bab, Afrin, Jarablus-Cobanbey-Tel Abyad-Ras'ul Ayn, the opposition has been expressing their anger with banners reading "We will die but we will not compromise with Assad" and "We will not compromise with a murderer". 

The society has reached or has been brought to such a state of bloodshed that a solution can only be achieved through a bi-communal and bi-administrative organization, just like in Cyprus. The continuation of life in a secure zone under the protection of Turkey is currently seen as the best solution. Aside from this autonomous structure created in a secure zone provided by Turkey, it is of great importance that the refugees return their properties left behind in their own lands within the framework of a gradual dialogue with the regime, what opportunities will be provided to them upon their return, and the realization of projects that create jobs for education, health and survival. Another issue is the engagement of the international community with the regime in the reconstruction of Syria. Although one tries to be optimistic, the sedimented problems left by the experiences trigger each other resonantly like intertwined Matryoshkas.  But no matter what, to create a positive atmosphere for the return, one has to start somewhere. 

Footnotes:

(1) Mesut Şöhret, “Suriye’nin Ekonomik Yapısı”, Uluslararası Politikada Suriye Krizi, İstanbul, 2016, s. 116; https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352366151_SURIYE'NIN_EKONOMIK_YAPISI/ Erişim Tarihi 05 Ocak 2023/

(2) Fehim Taştekin, “Adam Kazanıyor”, Gazete Duvar, 02 Ocak 2023; https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/adam-kazaniyor-makale-1596476/Erişim Tarihi 04.01.2023/ (3) “Böyle muhalefet düşman başına! Esed’e ‘terör’ koridoru sözü” Diriliş Postası Gazetesi, 21 Aralık 2022, s. 11; https://www.dirilispostasi.com/haber/13315969/boyle-muhalefet-dusman-basina-esede-teror-koridoru-sozu/ErişimTarihi 24.12.2022/

(4) Esat Arslan, “Olası Suriye Zirvesinin Düşündürdükleri”, Kırmızılar, 25 Aralık 2022; https://www.kirmizilar.com/tr/index.php/guncel-yazilar3/7452-olasi-suriye-zirvesinin-dusundurdukleri/Erişim Tarihi 05 Ocak 2023/