Is the Tension Between Serbia and Kosovo Close to an End?

The tension between Serbia and Kosovo has increased further since 27 December 2022. Between the Governments of Kosovo and Serbia, the problem of the Serbian minority living in Kosovo has grown, bringing the course of relations between the two countries to the level of conflict. 

Kosovo police set up roadblocks between the parties to prevent clashes in Mitovica and Zveçan settlements in the north of the country. In reaction to this, Serbs also set up a counter barricade. This resulted in the reflection of tension on the field without a political solution. 

The Kosovo Peacekeeping Force's call for an end to the barricading practice, which abolishes freedom of movement on Kosovo territory, was not responded to. 

In 2008 Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence and Serbia does not recognise it. Serbia continues to recognise Kosovo as its own territory. Despite this, the EU was able to launch a mediation initiative between the two countries. Launched in 2011, the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue process sought to define a common road map for the two countries to recognise each other on the road to normalisation.

Today, Albin Kurti, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, and Aleksandar Vucic, the President of Serbia, are meeting under the EU-led Franco-German Plan. The process continues. In essence, the plan was dictated to the parties by the EU in the context of "take it or leave it" for a solution rather than a negotiation. 

According to the Franco-German Plan, it is understood that the establishment of a 'Union of Serbian Municipalities' is envisaged in the municipalities in Kosovo where mostly Serbs live. This proposal was actually signed between Kosovo and Serbia in 2013 under the mediation of the EU. However, at that time, the agreement could not be put into practice due to its incompatibility with the Kosovo Constitution. According to the 2013 agreement, Serbia was to respect Kosovo's territorial integrity, recognise Kosovo and not pose an obstacle to its membership of international organisations.

The Serbian government had stipulated the establishment of the Union of Municipalities of Serbia as a precondition for Kosovo's independence. Kosovo, on the other hand, claimed that the proposal for a Union of Municipalities was unacceptable because it was an obstacle to the establishment of a "mono-ethnic" union. 

In response, Germany, France and Italy, determined to bring the two countries together, acted together and sent a joint letter to the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia. In the letter, the three countries stated that the parties must now sign the agreements, that this is essential for progress, and that they want an end to this tension in the centre of Europe. The letter emphasised that the leaders are expected to make a constructive effort. It emphasised taking steps in line with the European perspective for the common good of the citizens of Kosovo and Serbia and for the peaceful and prosperous development of the region. 

Mirislav Lajcak, the European Union's special envoy for the Belgrade - Pristina Dialogue, told Kosovo state television that they would not force Kosovo to accept situations contrary to its legal system. It was stated that the plan was prepared according to the red lines of the two countries. He stated that the drafts prepared by the EU were shared with the parties, that their opinions were received, that this framework document was matured, and that there should be no obstacles on the way to negotiations from now on. This plan, which was seen as a continuation of the negotiations, was based on the de facto recognition of the 1972 East-West German Treaty model. 

Kosovo is recognised as an independent state by 117 countries. However, it has not yet become a member of the UN. The Serbia-Kosovo 'frozen conflict' remains a problem. Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti says that normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia is only possible through mutual recognition. US President Joe Biden, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have also stated that mutual recognition is core and central to the normalisation of relations.

The leaders of Kosovo and Serbia, Kurti and Vucic, met a week ago in Brussels, Belgium. They discussed the proposal publicly known as the Franco-German Plan. According to Kurti, Kosovo was ready to sign the plan. Serbian leader Vucic refused to sign the document. In its final form, the plan stipulates that Serbia recognises Kosovo de facto, if not de jure, and does not prevent it from becoming a member of international organisations. The plan also includes the organisation of an administrative structure in Kosovo, known as the Union of Serbian Municipalities. Kosovo and Serbia are expected to resume negotiations within the framework of the EU-brokered Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue on 18 March in Skopje.