Is the water problem one of the reasons for the war between Russia and Ukraine?

The North Crimean Canal was built for the water supply and irrigation water needs of Southern Ukraine and Kherson Oblast on the Crimean Peninsula. The construction of the canal started in 1961 and was completed in 1975. Before 2014, Ukraine supplied 85% of Crimea's fresh water needs through the North Crimean Canal, which connects the Dnieper river to the Crimean peninsula. After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine stopped the water supply to Crimea through this canal.

The following map includes the North Crimean Canal Route and Dams.

As can be seen in the picture above, the North Crimean Canal, which is approximately 400 km long, provided drinking water and irrigation water to many dams and settlements on the peninsula through secondary channels. The population of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea before the annexation of Russia is given as 2.3 million people. After the annexation of Russia, 160 000 people settled in the peninsula from Russia and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

As of 2020, the population of the Crimean Peninsula has been determined as approximately 3 million people, of which 650 000 are unregistered. It is estimated that about 80 000 of these are military personnel. The dry periods and the increasing population in recent years have caused the water shortage to increase and the water supply security to be at risk. This has increased the hydropolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine over the supply of water from the North Crimean Canal.

Total storage volume and water potential of the Crimean Dams There are 14 dams and ponds in the Crimea that are fed by natural flow and have a total storage volume of 188 million m3. Apart from these, there are 8 dams and ponds with a total storage volume of 146 million m3 in Crimea and they are fed by the water coming from the North Crimean Canal. The annual water potential of the Crimea varies between 430 million m3 and 915 million m3. The annual total water use of Crimea is known as approximately 1.4 billion m3.

It is planned to take 1 billion m3 of water annually from the North Crimea Canal. After the water from the North Crimea Channel was cut off, especially after 2018, the search for alternative solutions started due to the insufficient water resources in the peninsula. After Russia's annexation of Crimea, the peninsula's water needs were tried to be met from lakes and groundwater, but the over-drawing from the wells caused the sea water to mix and the water quality to deteriorate, especially in the coastal areas.

Transportation of water by rail tankers over the new bridge over the Kerch Strait and by tankers
on solutions such as transportation to city and town areas and sea water treatment.
however, these solution alternatives have not been put into practice. This is the case in Crimea.
Serious economic losses and ecological losses by affecting sectors such as agricultural irrigation, tourism sector.
also created problems.

Why Partial Water War?

The long-term negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in order to supply the water need in Crimea from the North Crimean Canal could not yield any results. After these negotiations were inconclusive, it was also discussed that Russia might engage in a military operation for the supply of water after 2020.

In some publications, the 130,000 hectares of cultivated land in 2013 was due to the water cut in the canal.
It is located where it fell to only 14,000 hectares in 2017. In 2021, only three channels per day
water was given for five to five hours. That same year, the New York Times reported that high-ranking American officials
Securing the water supply could be the target of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine.
conveyed what he said.

Some analysts say that Russia's operation from eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper river.
predicts it will continue. This is the whole of Russia's Dnieper river.
emerges as the goal of gaining control.

In the pictures below, the North Crimean Canal and the structure preventing the passage of water can be seen.

Another military target for water supply to Crimea was the relief structure on the North Crimean canal.

Russian Army Blows Up Structure Blocking Water Passage

According to the Reuters news agency; The Russian governor of Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, said in a statement on February 27, 2022, that Russian soldiers blew up the water structure built in 2014 to cut off the water of Crimea.

However, this will not be enough to ensure the security of supply of water going to Crimea, and the water will have to be controlled from the dam on the Dnieper river. This was a partial operation to control the water supply to the Crimea.

Although it is not the main target in Russia's invasion plan of Ukraine, water supply security to Crimea is ensured. Hence all of a sudden, a partial irrigation system has taken as a water target.

Did the Water Cut Brought the Occupation?

Alexander Kovalenko, an Odessa-based military analyst, said in 2020 that water shortages are hurting Russia's ability to maintain and increase its military presence in Crimea. Sooner or later, they may have to figure this out.” One solution could be to seize military control of the canal and the areas it passes through.” he said.

Kovalenko continued, “Such an operation could open a way for Russian troops to engage northward with the Donbas region, or westward, seizing the economically important ports of Odessa and Mykolaiv, creating an uninterrupted Russian presence between Transnistria and Crimea.” had made the statement.

This Operation Also Has the Purpose of Controlling the Water to be Delivered to Crimea

When the situation in Ukraine before the invasion of Russia is evaluated, It can be said that the population in Crimea has the right to reduce the amount of water flowing through the canal by meeting their basic needs, but completely blocking the canal is a debatable situation. Today, it seems that Russia's operation to invade Ukraine aims to ensure water resources and water supply security. First, the plan for the water supply security of Crimea has been executed, and according to the political goal of the operation, full control of the Dnieper river may also be on the agenda.

It is difficult to call this situation a complete water war. However, due to the water problems between the two countries before, seizing the source of water going to Crimea was also among the military objectives of this operation. With this dimension, it can be said that the operation has the characteristics of a partial water war on a regional scale.

We are entering a period in which the importance of geopolitics will increase even more in the world. The new water and food geopolitics may emerge as more serious national security threats for many countries, including Turkey. It would be beneficial to revise our threat perceptions in these areas according to the new situation.