Japan’s Geopolitical Landscape for Shinzo Abe Assassination

Just days after assassination of the former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan held a general election and Abe’s party which is Liberal Democratic Party had an overwhelming victory. Some of the votes may have been sympathetic but the election was primarily a clear signal of the public sentiment regarding the growth of Japan’s military capabilities and a de facto break with the country’s Post-World War II pacifist stance and that was precisely one of the Shinzo Abe’s last wishes before his death. His successor Fumio Kishida is gradually restoring Japan’s military super power status. Eighty years ago imperial japan possessed one of the largest and most powerful militaries in the world and the mighty japanese offensive brought the empire extensive territorial gains but ultimately suffered a devastating defeat resulting in subjugation by the United States of America. After the end of World War II, in order to avoid renewed bloodshed the Americans wanted to have Japanese military capabilities under their control. Thus acting prudently, they inserted a provision into the newly created Japanese constitution in 1947 and for this to be guaranteed, which have been intoduced duress and overseen by the commander of the occupation forces General Douglas MacArthur article 9 of the Japanese constitution prohibited Tokyo from having a military capability. Japan after World War II diametrically changed its policies and it abandoned its own imperial past altogether to become a democracy by focusing on one goal which was the economic growth.

The 1947 constitution’s most celebrated innovation was Article 9. By the time the constitution came into effect, Japan’s imperial military had been dismantled and its leaders tried for war crimes. A new military was created in 1954, named the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), with the mission of defending Japan. Today, Japan’s SDF works with partners around the globe.

The United States was fighting battles in many places around the globe in a strategic rivalry with the Soviet Union at the forefront. On the other hand Japan’s location in the pacific theater continued to be crucial. It was located in close proximity to the soviet’s main pacific port which was known as Viladivostok that soviet ships could not sail into the open pacific without circumventing Japanese islands first. At this point, Moscow was looking for a way to field a significant naval force in the pacific and draw American power away from the other side of the globe. However Washington having its main interest in securing the atlantic and Europe did not want to pull resources away to the other side of world. Therefore for this purpose the United States wanted to use the economically growing Japan which is no longer presented a threat to Washington strategic aims. Japanese were reluctant to invest in the navy and air forces instead preferring to invest in the electronics and automotive industries which were soon to threaten the American counterparts. Japan’s constitution despite having 75 years since its inception has not experienced any amendments to date but interpretation of article 9 has become increasingly flexible.

Japan’s location in the pacific theater continued to be crucial. It was located in close proximity to the soviet’s main pacific port which was known as Viladivostok that soviet ships could not sail into the open pacific without circumventing Japanese islands first. At this point, Moscow was looking for a way to field a significant naval force in the pacific and draw American power away from the other side of the globe.

The first signifcant step took place as early as 1954  when the Japans self defense forces were established and this due to persistent urging from the Americans. In the eight years since end of World War II, japanese still remembering the trauma of those events have become an extremely pacifist nation in which the ceiling of just 1 percent of GDP being spent on self –defense forces. Japanese were content to lease their own security status to the Americans which they concluded on the back of a mutual security treaty signed after the end of World War II. The United States pledged to defend Japan’s sovereign integrity in exchange for the aforementioned pacifist constitution in which under this treaty The United States established more that 80 military facilities in Japan with more than 60.000 U.S troops deployed there. However in the 10 years the architecture of global security has begun to change rapidly due to the unprecedented “ Rise of China” which is Japan’s close neighbor and historical rival in the reigon. The threat posed to Japan by China’s rise was quickly realized by Japan’s long time Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Former Prime Minister Abe implemented a unprecedented series of security reforms and heavily modernized Japan’s forces with aware of the waning power of The United States. Shinzo Abe acted strongly in favor the QUAD Treaty in line with countries those who are concerned about “China’s recent meteoric rise”. In addition to Japan and The United States, QUAD includes Australia and India. In this circumstances, Japan’s self –defense forces began taking part in international maneuvers under the concept of another flexible reinterpretation of article 9.

Chinese military build up emerging as thesis then QUAD emerged as antithesis as a result of that Japan Former PM Shinzo Abe who is known as founder father of QUAD have been assasinated on the way of synthesis.

Veteran US official Kurt Campbell has long championed more American engagement in Asia and Campbell is often referred to as President Joe Biden’s “Asia Tsar” and has been influential in shaping the Asian style NATO which is named as “QUAD” grouping. The Biden administration has focused considerable attention on the Indo-Pacific region, declaring it central to advancing a range of U.S. economic, political and security interests. This U.S. commitment to allies and partners in the region and the intensifying geopolitical competition with China have animated several new U.S. diplomatic initiatives. At this point, under the QUAD partnership, United States and Japan agreement opened the door to sharing sensitive defense technologies to demonstrate U.S. leadership and cooperation in defense. QUAD means Quadrilateral Security Dialogue as Asian style NATO structured between India, United States, Australia and Japan. If the one look at the these four countries on the world map it will form a quadrilateral structure basically a closed two dimensional shape which has four straight sides. The main objective of this alliance is that it is the security formation for the Indo-Pacific Region from Chinese expansion policy. It can be explained by Hegelian Dialectic Idea formulated by Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel because of the fact all international security systems created on balance of power notion taking its own roots from Hegelian Dialectic Idea. Hegelian dialectic, usually presented in a three fold manner as comprising three dialectical stages of development: a thesis, giving rise to its reaction; an antithesis, which contradicts or negates the thesis; and the tension between the two being resolved by means of a synthesis. At this point, Chinese military build up emerging as thesis then QUAD emerged as antithesis as a result of that Japan Former PM Shinzo Abe who is known as founder father of QUAD have been assasinated on the way of synthesis therefore “the revolution always eats its own children” as a political science notion become realized on the way of International Chicken Game Theory.

Japan revising its constitution of article 9 on the way of militarisation having influence on ASEAN countries on the other hand Japan having membership QUAD meanwhile Japan also would like have leadership on South China Sea This is creating political dilemma with concept of Hegelian Dialectic Strategy at Japan domestic policy on the way of assasination Shinzo Abe even broke the nuclear taboo in Japan and raised the possibility of stationing The US nuclear weapons on japanese soil on a similar basis to NATO’s nuclear sharing program. These proposals were greeted as highly controversial by the japanese public who still have memories of horrors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Admittedly Shinzo Abe has sent out to redefine Japan’s military mindset with all these test. The most critical move was that Shinzo Abe fought for double the defense budget and it seems that this goal will be realized event after his death. Incumbent Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida enjoys widespread public confidence sealed by having recently won the landslide election. Although Kishida is considered by many analysts to be a more subdued politician than Shinzo Abe but his foreign policy is an extension of the past rather than a subversion. Fumio Kishida’s moderation is even as an asset among a public that although increasingly aware of growing threats does not want the transition abruptly.

There are two primary threats the harder to read danger is North Korea’s nuclear and misilse program. At this point 86 percent of japanese feel a danger from North Korea. On the other hand, 64 percent of japanese support a program of to expand their country’s defense capabilities. The second and strategically more serious challange is China. China’s aggressive policies in the context of Taiwan in the form of militarization of artifical islands and all extraction in disputed waters are dorcing Tokyo to abandon its pacifist doctrine and take more responsbility for its own and regional security.

China’s aggressive policies in the context of Taiwan in the form of militarization of artifical islands and all extraction in disputed waters are dorcing Tokyo to abandon its pacifist doctrine.

Japan and The United States share a common interest in neutralizing the threats from North Korea but primarily from China. However the characteristic of this threat for the two sides are different while the Americans are operating on broader scale concerned with securing their current level of prosperity and power but Japan like Ukraine today face an existencial threat in the Asia- Pacific Region. It is not a matter of months or even the next few years but actions taken today will project into the following decades when China will inevitably become the world’s largest country economically as the disparity between Tokyo and Beijing continues to grow. This disagreement boils down to the “Senkaku Islands” located to the Northwest of Taiwan which is perennial flashpoint between Japan and China. Moreover Biden Administration reiterated the position taken by the Trump and Obama Administration to bring Japan’s “ Senkaku Islands” under Article 5 of the bilateral security treaty which allows The U.S military intervention in the event of chinese agression. The Japanese having deep concern and also watching situtation around Taiwan in which the island is only about 110 km from japanese island of “ Yanoguni ” where the Japanese have patriot systems deployed and 500 km from the strategically crucial “Okinawa” which is home to massive The U.S military base hosting 26.000 marines.

The Japanese having deep concern and also watching situtation around Taiwan in which the island is only about 110 km from japanese island of “ Yanoguni ” where the Japanese have patriot systems deployed and 500 km from the strategically crucial “Okinawa” which is home to massive The U.S military base hosting 26.000 marines

As of December 2021, Shinzo Abe said that “Chinese attack on Taiwan would present a direct threat to japan and that conflict would drag Japan and the United States into it.” The Japanese also have a territorial dispute with Russian Federation over the northern territories which is better known by its Russian name “The Kuril Islands”. Russia is a theoretical third threat to Japan but in practice is non-existent compared to North Korea and China. That’s why the Russian invasion of Ukraine has intensified beating of war drums even by the Japanese who are thousands of kilometers away from epicenter of events. The Ukranian-Russian and Chinese –Japanese correlations are diametically different and have their own dynamics but it is difficult to not notice parallels an deven draw direct comparisions.

Conclusion

Japan’s sensitivity on this issue can be gauged from the fact that Japan was one of the first  and most forceful nation to take concrete action against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. If Shinzo Abe have not been assassinated, Japan would have taken forceful action against China over the Taiwan Strait on the contrary of The U.S chicken game policy over Indo-Pacific and this assassination prevented Japan’s military operation to China on which with Nancy Polesi visit to Taiwan, The United States given to message to China that American Administration wishing for protracted conflict rather than direct military action then China received message very well by launching live-fire military drill over the Taiwan Straits. Assassination of Abe will delay Japan’s military action but it will not stop Japan in long term  After the invasion of Ukraine, Tokyo froze the assests of Russia’s central bank banned the export of high end technology and stripped Russia of its privileged country trade status. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was the first Japanese leader in history to attend a NATO summit. All this is forcing Prime Minister Kishida to redefine Japan’s defense doctrine. Japan will consider every option to increase country’s defense capabilities including the controversial ability to strike enemy bases through spending on the military to 2 percent of GDP like NATO nations does.

This developments will make Japan the world’s third largest military power at least in terms of defense spending which will increase from 50 billion dollars to 100 billion dollars to per year. Nowadays Japan has more than 900 combat aircraft, 38 destroyers including anti-missile systems and 20 submarines. On the other hand, Tokyo is buying F-35 fighters making it the largest user of The U.S stealth fighters outside the United States. Whether Japan will develop its own independent missilse capability or contine to rely on U.S technology remains to be seen. Howoever what is certain is that Tokyo is on its way to acquiring “ counter-strike” capability.

How do China see all this ? How Chinese decision makers will do reaction?

1-    Chinese decision makers are watching event carefully and received message of Nancy Polesi visit after Shinzo Abe Assassination. They see Japan as subservient to U.S interest.

2-    China blame to Japan for terrible crimes committed druing World War II. Even China suggesting that They defeated Japan militarism during World War II and they will defeat Japan again and if Japan dares to threaten the security of another country or even make a suprise attack, China will turn Japanese territory into battlefield.

3-    Just day after Nancy Polesi’s visit to Taiwan, China fired a dozen missiles five of which landed on Japan’s exclusive economic zone 

4-    China want to international balance of power on the concept of chicken game theory as United States also implementing it  on the way of protracted conflict therefore American administration easly arranging policy for pivoting Asia from Europe. XI Jinping implementing a doctrine which called for calm and not getting ahead of game. He also endorsed Russian imperial plans and all of those developments will make Tokyo as world’s third military power as lefting traditional military pacifist nature.Aralık 2021 itibariyle Shinzo Abe, "Çin'in Tayvan'a saldırmasının Japonya için doğrudan bir tehdit oluşturacağını ve bu çatışmanın Japonya ve ABD'yi de içine çekeceğini" söyledi. Japonların ayrıca Rusya Federasyonu ile daha çok Rusça adıyla "Kuril Adaları" olarak bilinen kuzey bölgeleri üzerinde bir toprak anlaşmazlığı var. Rusya, Japonya için teorik olarak üçüncü bir tehdittir ancak pratikte Kuzey Kore ve Çin'e kıyasla mevcut değildir. Bu nedenle Rusya'nın Ukrayna'yı işgali, olayların merkez üssünden binlerce kilometre uzakta olan Japonlar tarafından bile savaş tamtamlarının çalınmasını yoğunlaştırdı. Ukrayna-Rusya ve Çin-Japonya ilişkileri birbirinden tamamen farklıdır ve kendi dinamiklerine sahiptir ancak paralellikleri fark etmemek ve doğrudan karşılaştırmalar yapmamak zordur.