Meaning of Returning to Iranian Nuclear Agreement

The Iranian nuclear program maintains its place and importance in the agenda of the world and the region for many reasons. During the US President Obama era, after long negotiations between Iran and a group of countries including the world's major powers and some European powers, a ten-year agreement was reached in 2015, the essence of which was to prevent Iran from reaching nuclear weapons. The Israeli prime minister of the time, Netanyahu from the very beginning, strongly opposed this agreement with the claim that “With this agreement, Iran could have a nuclear weapon” and even clashed with President Obama by displaying a daring stance that could mean interfering in the internal affairs of the United States. The biggest supporter of President Trump, who came to power with the support of the Evangelical and Zionist alliance in the USA after Obama, was Prime Minister Netanyahu and his supporters.
After Trump became president, he declared that he did not recognize the 2015 Nuclear Iran agreement, began to implement a series of heavy sanctions and pressure policies against Iran until he agreed to a new agreement, and clearly followed a strictly pro-Israel policy. According to the claims reflected in open sources; The US and Israeli coalition under the Trump and Netanyahu duo conducted a series of overt and covert operations against Iran at that time (assassinations of critical personnel, cyberattacks against the nuclear program and strategic facilities, sabotage of strategic facilities, intelligence operations, and incitement of subversive activities); He tried to weaken the Iranian administration, to disrupt its nuclear program and to force a new agreement.
Although the Iranian administration was affected in many ways, it did not succumb to these pressures, resisted and tried to develop and maintain ballistic missile technology along with its nuclear program. With the beginning of the President Joe Biden era in the USA, the US administration announced the initiative to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran and invited the Iranian administration to the negotiation table. Netanyahu lost power in Israel and a new multi-party coalition government was formed. The new government in Israel accepted the new approach of the USA by putting forward some new conditions. Iran has not yet sat at the negotiating table directly, by putting forward some conditions at the beginning of the indirect negotiations with the USA, which were initiated in Vienna. But within the last week, the Iranian President's Chief has announced that negotiations can be resumed in late November.
As of this point and within the framework of the new situation; In line with the information in foreign open sources and the statements made by the authorities of the relevant countries; It is important to focus on the factors that are considered to be effective in the possible course of the subsequent processes and to reach some conclusions. Although the issue has an international and multi-actor character; This review is limited to the factors and actors that directly affect the issue.
THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
According to the Iranian administration in early October; They still have 210 kg of Uranium enriched at 20% and 25 kg of Uranium enriched at 60%. It is quite interesting that the U/A Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has stated that the actual amount is even below this. According to experts; In any case, it is not yet possible to think that these amounts are important for a nuclear power in the military sense. Because by experts; It is stated that for around 20 kg of uranium metal required for nuclear weapons, tens of kg of uranium enriched at least 90% should be produced and converted into metal. Another important issue is; It is the ability to produce the necessary equipment for a nuclear warhead. Again, according to foreign sources; Iran is one or two years away from achieving this. In other words, it is stated that Iran does not yet possess a nuclear weapon, nor does it have the status of a nuclear threshold country. However, it is claimed that he is making an effort towards this goal. As proof of this; the construction of an underground facility where high-tech centrifuges are installed, which can produce three to four times faster and are smaller (taking up less space), and the Iranian administration has not returned to the negotiating table for a long time.

THE ATTITUDE OF THE PARTIES AND THE FINAL DESIRE TO ACHIEVE AT THE NEGOTIATION TABLE
Israel
In the evaluation and approach of the multi-party coalition government, of which the far-right Naftali Bennet is prime minister, about the Iranian administration and Iran's nuclear program; In fact, it is no different from the governments under Netanyahu. “The 2015 Agreement is not enough to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and means returning to that agreement and lifting sanctions; It means paving the way for Iran to have nuclear weapons. The current government also has the future opinion and thought.
According to the information in open sources; Unlike the US administration, Israeli intelligence; “In terms of the amount of uranium metal required for nuclear weapons, Iran is very close to being a nuclear threshold status country, with the amount of enriched uranium in its possession and a uranium enrichment capacity three or four times faster than before in the underground centers consisting of advanced centrifuges it has established, and that it is very close to being a nuclear bomb head production. The fact that there is no certain information about whether they have the necessary equipment, information and technology is the factor that increases the concern; The Iranian administration can never be trusted; In addition, their convictions and claims that it may not be easy to hit the nuclear facilities built underground, kinetically, are remarkable.
The Israeli administration argues that for a new agreement, it is necessary to sit at the negotiating table. A new agreement to be made; It argues that addressing the exploitative aspects of the 2015 Agreement should be longer-lasting and more robust (with mechanisms that can be effectively monitored and prevented from breaching). It also wants the new agreement to contain provisions that will end Iran's development of ballistic missile and missile head technologies and its support for terrorism and terrorism in the region. There is a prevailing opinion that the existing embargoes should be continued and even aggravated before these conditions are accepted and implemented by the Iranian administration.
The main factor in Iran's decision to return to the negotiating table and the announcement by the President of Iran that the negotiations will start at the end of November; The destruction caused by the current sanctions in the Iranian economy and the fact that this has put the Tehran administration very hard is shown. However, in order to get results at the negotiation table and/or to be prepared to use it if no result can be obtained; The importance of preparation for the use of force is emphasized by the authorities in Tel Aviv and this information is found in open sources.
The prevailing opinion on the Israeli side; The Tehran administration knows that it is not legally possible for the US administration to fulfill the conditions Iran demands from the United States, and it is unlikely that Iran will accept a stronger and longer-term agreement, and the Tehran administration will try to gain time to achieve its goal, but it is believed that Iran's willingness to agree to a new deal, albeit a slim one, could give Israel some significant advantages. The Israeli government is in line with this conviction; Believing that having an agreement with Iran is more preferable than no agreement, it seems to have accepted the US President Biden's approach of resolving the issue through negotiation and diplomacy in order to prevent it from reaching a nuclear weapon. As a matter of fact, the statement of the current defense minister and former chief of staff (R) Lieutenant General Beny Gantz that "Israel can live with a new nuclear deal" was covered in the media.
The new approach of the Israeli government; It should be noted that it is an approach in line with the strategy of making the issue a matter of the USA and the world and creating a more solid ground on which Iran can be held responsible for the violations it may commit after a new agreement.
Another important issue for Israel: In order to bring the Gulf countries closer to Israel, to normalize relations, to make people forget the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian lands and to form a front against “common threats”; It is also necessary to see that Israel and the USA exploit the "Nuclear Iran" issue and play on the fear factor in the Gulf countries. It is seen that Saudi Arabia has not yet joined the Abrahamic agreements, but the pressures are intensifying. In other words, it is still in the interests of Israel and the USA that the issue of "Nuclear Iran" hangs over the heads of the Gulf countries like Damocles' sword.

USA
It is clear that there is a significant divergence between the global interests and grand strategy of the USA and some regional interests of Israel. This differentiation is also seen in the issue of Iran's nuclear program.
The main message given in the evaluations and comments made by powerful non-state actors in America and influential figures recognized by the public long before the elections was as follows:
It was emphasized that "it is very important to follow a very careful and delicate policy in the competition and/or struggle between the USA and China, and to avoid policies that will lead to a global escalation and conflict." This emphasis is an important aspect to help understand the Biden administration's foreign policy. Accordingly, the US does not want any war in the Middle East that it will be involved in or will be drawn into later on, and the army is the last tool to be used in solving the issues.
Biden administration as a sign of goodwill; It partially loosened sanctions on Iran and He expressed his will to solve the lenin through diplomacy and negotiations. But on the other hand, it also sends warning messages in different tones so that the Tehran administration does not exploit this softening and goodwill initiative. The US administration, as part of its global grand strategy; While trying to achieve an Israel-centered geopolitical transformation in the Eastern Mediterranean-centered Greater Middle East region, on the other hand, it follows a regional strategy that will prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power by preserving the regional balances.

Iranian
It is inevitable for the Tehran administration to use the lawlessness and distrust created arbitrarily by the US administration in the past, in line with the demands of the Israeli administration, for its own interests. As a matter of fact, the Iranian administration, according to a foreign source; It makes demands that are not easy to be accepted by the United States to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement. These demands; It is the complete lifting of all sanctions and embargoes, and a promise by the US to Iran by taking a Congressional resolution that the US will not return from the agreement and will not impose sanctions on Iran again. Although Iran stated last June, upon the instruction of Supreme Leader Khamenei, that it would not return to negotiations until these demands are met; It is an important development that the new Presidential Chief announced last week that negotiations will start at the end of November. While the Tehran administration is moving towards its strategic goals to the extent that the regional and global power balances allow; It is seen that it follows a strategy in line with the aim of gaining time on the one hand, protecting its gains and ensuring the continuity of the regime on the other.

Russia
Russia is Iran's arms supplier. The Putin administration prefers the method of closed diplomacy regarding Iran's nuclear program and does not openly declare on this issue. In terms of its regional and general interests, it is clear that Iran will not desire to become a nuclear-armed country. Just like his attitude in Syria. This area offers opportunities for Russia to exploit both sides. Along with these; Russia is in competition with China over Iran. The long-term and comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement between China and Iran has created a new situation for Russia.
In the final analysis; The results of the comparison of gains and losses in the bargain with the USA-Israel in the first degree, and the results of the comparison of the gains and losses in the bargain with China in the second degree will determine whether Moscow will take an active stance in favor of Iran. What is important for Russia; the conditions likely to occur after a possible agreement serve Russia's long-term regional and general interests. At a time when the US's interest in the region is shifting towards the Asia-Pacific region, as required by its grand strategy; Russia will follow a policy aimed at preventing the deployment of another global power, namely China, as a military power in the region. As can be seen, this issue is one of the most important bargaining issues between the USA-Israel and Russia.

Chinese
As in the example of Russia; The problems between Israel and Iran and the problems in the region are open to exploitation by China against both countries. As a matter of fact, it can be seen that China follows policies in this direction. In the context of the issue, China's interests differ significantly from those of Russia. This difference has to do with China's global power struggle with the United States. According to the grand strategy of the USA; The US has determined the center of gravity of its power struggle with China in the field to be in the close vicinity of China in the Asia-Pacific region. China's ability to maintain its claim to be a global power and even to take the lead is directly related to achieving its goals in those regions. This is why; The Chinese administration is in need of distracting the attention and power of the US administration. We can see this in the example of North Korea. In order to understand how China views the issue of the Iranian nuclear program, it is necessary to look at it from this perspective. From this point of view, China is disturbed by the US's strategy of getting rid of the endless wars in the Middle East region. Therefore, there is a possibility that a long-lasting US-Israeli military operation against Iran will serve China's grand strategy and result in a change in these conditions in favor of China.

EVALUATION AND CONCLUSION
The issue of Iran's Nuclear Program; It is clear that it is a very COMPLEX issue in terms of the interests and grand strategies of major actors. The solution of such a complex and sensitive issue with regional and global dimensions will not be easy. In the game of power struggle on the Eurasian and Middle East chessboard, the consequences of an erroneous move to be made in this context will affect the global power struggle between Beijing and Washington and the entire Middle East. has the potential to sting. Washington will therefore always remain in control of the processes involved and will not wish for a surprise development for itself.
It is very clear that the resolution of this big and complex issue, which has global dimensions in terms of its potential effects and is beyond Tel Aviv's size, is an important and priority issue of the diplomacy and negotiations that Washington conducts and will conduct with the great powers (China, Russia, the United Kingdom and the EU).
Based on the fact that Washington and Tel Aviv are under time pressure; In case the expected result cannot be obtained within a reasonable time from the bilateral and multilateral diplomacy and negotiations with capitals such as Beijing, Moscow, London, Paris and Tehran; they will have to make a decision for the next roadmap.
Conclusion:
According to Tel Aviv, the United States has no alternative for them. The green light and/or support of the USA will be the determining factor in the realization of any military force exercise on Iranian soil. It has been evaluated that Washington and Tel Aviv will not turn a blind eye to the presence of a nuclear-armed country in the region, or even an Iran that has reached the nuclear threshold, and that they will force diplomacy and negotiation methods in order to give legitimacy to the use of force in case of need. In a way to force the Tehran administration to come to an agreement in the protracted negotiation processes; As in the past, in the context of controlled tension, it is highly probable that a series of overt and covert operations will be carried out with a fluctuating course in intensity and dosage.
On the other hand, it is clear that the attitudes of Beijing and Moscow are of critical importance in the negotiation processes and Beijing can exploit this issue as much as possible. However, although the negotiations will take longer, there is a high probability that a new nuclear agreement can be reached with Iran at the end of the day. In general, the economic interests of the countries are a factor that encourages developments in this direction.
Again, it should be emphasized that; Reaching a new agreement with Iran will not mean that the tension between Israel and Iran, and therefore between Iran and the United States, will come to an end.