Putin Describes Turkey as an Island of Security and Stability in Energy Supply

During the global pandemic, it has once again become clear that it is not possible to do anything in the world without energy.  Both individually and as a country. Everything that exists in the universe is made of energy. I remember, years ago, as a believer in the Day of Judgment and Reckoning, I asked an atheist scientist friend of mine who worked at NASA, "Do you think there is a Heaven and Hell?" I asked. He answered in a simple way. "Why not, after we find the energy." The answer was very simple. In one breath, he succinctly described the importance of energy, which is indispensable for both this world and the next. So? So: In one fell swoop, he saw no harm in linking the phenomenon of energy with the belief codes embedded in DNA molecules. Indeed, today, energy and access to energy resources are fundamental to the daily life of every modern person. As Bill Gates said, "Today we are very dependent on cheap energy. We just accept it - everything you have at home is a form of industry." 

It was a chain reaction that led to the endless use of energy. But with one difference: cheap energy no longer exists. 

This high need for first-hand energy resources, which are indispensable for human life, brings the energy phenomenon to the forefront of today's world politics. Shall I tell you something a little more ambitious? Every country's foreign policy and its strategy for action are determined in line with its vision on energy. It is as simple as that. It is ambitious, but this is what is visible. The geographical distribution of fossil fuels is heterogeneous, heterogeneous and depletable, and the ever-increasing consumption of energy resources in developing and developed countries brings the world's energy supply problem to the forefront. Therefore, the search for and diversification of new energy sources and the control of their transportation routes are leading to tense struggles that may lead to war. So much so that the US has documented this situation at a primary level and prioritized this situation in its "National Defense Document". 

This is the right thing to do and the right thing to do. It is only natural that in today's environment, every country pursues its own energy interests, and energy has become the primary task of international relations. On the other hand, if we look at the energy factor in the multipolarity universe in isolation, it has formed the basis of the social-economic development and foreign policy structuring of the fossil fuel-rich RF in opposition to the US, the EU (EU(D)) and the UK. This is clearly the rule of polarization. In fact, Putin emphasizes the importance of the RF inherited from the Soviet Union by saying "Our biggest mistake was the dissolution of the Soviet Union". When we sit down crookedly and make a correct determination, it is clearly seen that what Putin has actually done is to reconstruct the SB as a foreign policy argument under the guidance of the RF. 

The Commonwealth of Independent States is the starting point of the evolution leading to this process. Russia, with its huge energy resources potential, is also a major consumer, producer, exporter and transit country of energy resources and actively participates in all energy-related processes in the world. Russia's energy relations with the Post-Soviet countries have developed depending on whether these states are producers, importers or transit countries of energy resources. For Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, which are producers of energy resources, not only Russia but also Turkey is a transit country for the export of the energy resources they produce. The remaining countries are importers of energy resources. RF is trying to strengthen its position in the post-Soviet space on the basis of its geological location in the energy resources transportation corridors established during the Soviet era. These efforts have yielded different results according to each country's position in the energy market and political strategies. Russia's unique position underlines Russia's key role in ensuring world energy security and influences the formation of the country's energy policy and strategy. A well-developed fuel-energy industry enables Russia to integrate into the world economy and contributes significantly to Russia's geopolitical power. (1)

First of all, let us say that the war between Russia and Ukraine is in a very real sense an RF-US war. It is obvious that the Ukrainian leadership is not in a position to decide the course of events, and it is even more obvious that it does not even have a voice in this matter. The Ukrainian battlefield is seen as an area where RF's energy will be depleted. It should not be forgotten that at no stage of their shared history have Russia and the United States ever confronted each other in their own countries and in any way, but have always been on the same side. From this point of view, it should not be forgotten that regardless of who sits at the table, it is the US and Russian leaderships who will ultimately be able to decide whether a "ceasefire" or a "melhame-yi kubra" will be reached. The sinking of Moscow's flagship with the Neptune missile attack and the Kerch attack on Putin's 70th birthday proved that Ukraine, with the support of the EU(D) and the UK, could cross Russia's red lines. Putin, enraged and enraged by this situation, has shown how heavy his hand can be by ordering rocket attacks on the civilian energy infrastructure of 11 Ukrainian cities. Of course, the innocent population had to pay the price for the Kerch attack, which was backed by the EU(D) and the UK. This is why the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba described the aftermath of the attack as "Putin's Missile Terrorism". Tit for tat, but it was the innocent people who paid the price. 

The 19 km long Kerch bridge, the apple of Putin's eye, which he had personally built, was severely damaged both on the railroad and on the normal vehicular road, which halted supply and logistics activities between the RF and Crimea.  It is not known how soon the bridge will be repaired and refurbished. The fact that Ukraine, backed by the EU(D) and the UK, went so far as to hit a serious air shield shows the extent of its support from the West. Russian missile attacks on infrastructure have brought the war, which had been confined to the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson fronts, back into Ukraine after months. At the beginning of the war, the RF aimed to paralyze Ukraine's civilian and military leadership by targeting the Kiev decision-making center with Ukraine's will and determination to fight. It is believed that the power outages may not only lead to the exhaustion of the Ukrainian people and their disgust with the Zelensky administration, but also to the disruption of Ukraine's reflexes to counterattack. These things really need to be seen, dear readers. Secondly, the RF, in other words, a nation-state, which is directly engaged in national and indigenous production, is engaged in a tit-for-tat battle with Multinational Corporations (MNCs). No matter what anyone says, it is an indication that the nation-state is not over yet, and that it is getting stronger by returning to its factory settings after the global pandemic. The clues to this should be seen in RF leader Putin's description of Turkey's becoming Europe's largest natural gas hub, who said "Russia is ready to ship energy to Europe even in winter, the ball is in their court" during the Russian Energy Week 2022 in Moscow: (2) 

"We do not plan to work with Western companies until 2025. Local production will continue. 80% manufacturing in this sector belongs to us. The stupidity of Western companies was to challenge us. The Russian market is now closed to them! They are finished. The gas (Natural Gas) we produce will definitely be sold! World markets will now turn to the TURKISH STREAM PROJECT. We will only give gas to TURKEY. I fully support the TURKISH STREAM PROJECT. I will transfer 14 billion cubic meters of gas to the 'Blue Marmara Stream'. Let the Westerners think about it now! I will transport all the gas I have from the bottom of the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. If the West wants something, now their interlocutor is "TURKEY". Whoever wants gas will go and buy it from Turkey! Turkey will be the biggest natural gas center in Europe. No problem for me. We will see it all this winter! For deliveries and payments, I don't recognize any international currency. We will be paid in our own currency. In RUBLE. China, which will help with transportation, will be paid in Yuhan. Whoever wants gas from me will pay in RUBLES!!!.That's it."

The oil pipeline from Ukraine to the EU has been idle due to Ukraine's intransigent stance on not paying the natural gas money to the RF, the Nord Stream -1 Project, which was built under the Baltic Sea in the face of Ukraine's negative attitude, has been disabled as a result of leaks in four places as a result of sabotage, and the Nord Stream -2, which was built by the EU with half of its money, has also been disabled. This has indeed made Turkey, which has proven itself with the Agricultural Corridor, a safe harbor for both agricultural supply and energy supply. In addition, Turkey has, in Putin's words, established itself to the whole of Europe in terms of energy supply security. As is known, a "National Petroleum Stocks Commission" with the necessary powers was established in 2005 with regard to security of supply. Turkey has largely harmonized with the acquis on security of supply. 

Turkey has also constructed the necessary storage areas in Thrace and under Tuz Lake to ensure that it maintains a minimum stock of oil equivalent to 90 days of annual consumption, in line with the requirements set by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Turkey has developed the FSRU (Floating LNG Storage and Regasification Unit) in Dörtyol, Hatay, the Aliağa LNG Terminal and the Marmara Ereğlisi LNG Terminal. Meanwhile, the FSRU-LNG Ship berthing, service jetty and coastal facilities planned to be built in Saros Bay by Pipeline Petroleum Transportation Inc. (BOTAŞ) for similar purposes, 50 km as the crow flies from Alexandroupoli, were halted before construction started due to the opposition of environmentalists motivated by the known negative attitude of the TMMOB Chamber of Civil Engineers. However, it is a simple and universally accepted fact that even after the recent astronomical increases in oil and natural gas prices, Turkey has become one of the few countries to maintain one hundred percent of its storage capacity. 

Turkey has also continued its efforts to diversify its energy sources and routes and to strengthen its position as a transit country for the transportation of oil and gas from the Caspian Basin and the Middle East to the EU, and has taken successful steps such as TANAP/TAP. It has also secured the Turkey-Greece gas interconnection. In addition, Turkey is also supporting the "Nabucco" gas pipeline project (Turkey-Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary-Austria), currently in the planning stage, where Caspian Basin countries, including Iran, can also be a source of supply, and cooperating with Persian Gulf countries in the framework of the project envisaging gas transportation from Egypt, Syria and, when conditions permit, eventually Iraq to the EU. 

The Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline, the South Caucasus gas pipeline, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline for oil have been built, turning the Yumurtalık region into a major oil distribution center (hub), just like Rotterdam. The construction of pipelines not only increased the security of energy supply but also reduced the burden of hazardous materials transported through the Turkish Straits. However, the perception of the US military base in Alexandroupoli as a threat only to Turkey dictates a very wrong position. In fact, the US military base in Alexandroupoli is intended both for the logistical support of NATO member Bulgaria, Romania, Poland and even non-NATO member Ukraine, and for the security of the oil and gas depots built in the port area. Secondly, the largest US military base ever built on foreign soil, the 'Bondsteel Camp', also known as the 'armory of the 21st century', was built in Kosovo. KFOR soldiers serving in Kosovo said: "There are two things visible from space. One is the Great Wall of China, the other is this base' with praise. Spread over an area of 460 thousand square meters, the base is located in the 'Presevo Valley'. In other words, it is located on the planned route of the number 8 energy corridor sponsored by the EU since 1994 and the 894-kilometer giant Trans-Balkan oil pipeline to be sponsored by the US. (3) 

All this is a justification for the US to wean Europe away from Russian gas and oil and make it dependent on US-led hydrocarbon energy. Because the US has become the only power in the world in terms of giant liquid natural gas tankers. Even Turkey has been forced to buy LNG from the US in order to keep its natural gas tanks full and avoid supply shortages.  The voyage of LNG ships from the US takes an average of 18 days, depending on the terminal, while the voyage from Nigeria to Turkish ports takes an average of 15 days and from Algeria 5 days. The gas in liquid form in the LNG ships arriving in Turkey is converted into a gas suitable for pipeline form after the necessary processes and sent to the system. However, due to Montreux restrictions due to the tonnage, length and width of the ships, Turkey's FSRU (Floating LNG Storage and Gasification Unit) in Dörtyol, Hatay and Aliağa LNG Terminals are used.

After all, I would like to say that, as in the Cold War, the geographical spread and high firepower in the systematic of the attacks on the Ukrainian battlefield inevitably increase the tension in an inextricable way. This escalation in the intensity of the war in the Ukrainian battlefield is considered to be an open-ended process that could draw NATO into it and trigger a nuclear war, as well as bring a ceasefire closer (4). 

Having proven itself in the grain corridor, more precisely in agricultural supply security, the largest natural gas hub in Europe, entrusted by Putin, strengthens Turkey's indispensable position in energy supply. As a NATO member, Turkey has largely complied with the acquis on security of supply, and its policy of balance in today's conjuncture reinforces its status as a power that can prepare the environment for peace. It should not be forgotten that it dictates that bringing peace to our globe can only be achieved through negotiations between the RF and the US. 

Footnotes

(1) Altyn Ablabekova, The Role of Russian Energy Policy in the World Energy Market, PhD thesis, Istanbul University Institute of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, Istanbul, 2014, p. V.

(2) Emre Gurkan Abay, Russian President Putin: Russia ready to ship energy to Europe even in winter, ball is in their court, Anadolu Agency, 12.10.2022; https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/rusya-devlet-baskani-putin-rusya-kisin-dahil-avrupa-ya-enerji-sevkiyatina-hazir-top-onlarin-sahasinda/27094707Erişim Tarihi 16.10.2022/  

(3) Hürriyet News Service, Base Seen from Space, April 06, 2008; https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/uzaydan-gorunen-us-8600959/Erişim Date 07.11.2021/

(4) Fehim Taştekin, "What now: Armageddon or ceasefire?" October 13, 2022; https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/simdi-ne-olacak-armageddon-mu-ateskes-mi-makale-1584665/Erişim Date 16.10.2022/