Russia-Ukraine War, Turkey, Black Sea and the Importance of the Straits Convention
Any amendment to the Convention on the Straits requires a request from one of the littoral states and its ratification by the Black Sea littoral states. This request will come sooner or later.
Many think tanks, especially in the foreign press, have presented their analyses to the world public opinion on the course of Russia's war in Ukraine and whether it was successful or unsuccessful, analysing each component of the struggle one by one. It is clear that these analyses and evaluations are mostly neo-con oriented. Our aim is to present a different perspective for the readers and decision makers by analysing the neglected and developing events of this struggle from Turkey's perspective.
Every operation has a military objective and a political objective in line with this military objective. The main goal is the political goal. Is Russia's military objective to occupy the whole of Ukraine and/or take over the Ukrainian army? Or is the political goal of Russia's military operation to create Autonomous Regions on the Black Sea coast in accordance with international law in line with Russian national interests, which can later declare their independence and join the Commonwealth of Independent States? It should not be forgotten that if the political goal has been realised, the real goal has been achieved. Of course, it is impossible to know what Russia's military and political objectives are.
The Black Sea basin is a geostrategically important place in terms of both the extraction of underground riches and their supply to the world markets, the energy resources of the Caspian basin, the energy resources of the Caspian basin, the opening of the rising Far East economy to the world market, and the security of Russia (of course, Turkey) in the Exclusive Economic Zones of the countries bordering the Black Sea ( Map 1 and Map 2 are shown before and after Russia started the operation). The Black Sea did not witness any conflict during and after the Second World War. It should be underlined that the reason for this is the Montreux Convention on the Straits. In this respect, the Black Sea deserves the name of a sea of peace. However, some developments that have emerged in recent years have started to cloud the atmosphere of the Black Sea.
MAP 1
MAP 2
After the dissolution of the USSR, NATO initiated an enlargement process for the countries that gained their independence from the Soviet Union, which came under the EU umbrella and brought their economic and political lives closer to western examples. Firstly, Czechia, Hungary and Poland in 1999, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia in 2004, then Albania, Croatia in 2009, Montenegro in 2017, Macedonia in 2020, Finland in 2023 and Sweden in 2024.
When the enlargement process is carefully analysed, it resembles the Green Belt theory that the US has been implementing within the framework of the containment policy against communism since the Jimmy Carter era (Map 3).
MAP 3
MAP 4
Regarding the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, it is necessary to put forward the following first; NATO's ‘commitment to Ukraine and Georgia for membership’ in 2008, while the NATO expansion process was in progress, initiated a Russian counter-operation that led to the Ukraine war. In short, for Russia, the preparations for today's war in Ukraine started with NATO's enlargement process (before 1999) and the fuse was lit with the commitment given to Ukraine and Georgia in 2008.
Immediately after Ukraine and Georgia pledged their membership in July 2008, Russia divided its counter-strike into phases and first took action against Georgia in 2008. The Russo-Georgian War started in August 2008 with the tension between South Ossetia, Russia and Georgia, and the recent participation of Abkhazia in this tension.
At the end of the war, Georgia lost its limited control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia and lost the war. Russia announced that it recognised Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which unilaterally declared their independence, and three de facto countries emerged on Georgian territory, two of which (Abkhazia and Adjaria), together with the Autonomous Republic of Adjaria/Ajara, border the Black Sea (Map 4). Georgia severed all diplomatic relations with Russia and left the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
Russia's next move continued with the annexation of Crimea on 18 March 2014, separating it from Ukraine and creating an autonomous region under a pro-Russian administration. The process, which started in accordance with international law when the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych, who seized power with the turmoil caused by the Russian influence in the Ukrainian government, requested Russian troops to the region due to the tension in Crimea, resulted in the annexation of Crimea. After the annexation, two federal structures emerged on the Crimean peninsula: the Republic of Crimea and the Federal City of Sevastopol.
Until 2016, these federal structures formed the Crimean Federal District , which also has a coast on the Black Sea, and on 28 July 2016, it was annexed to the Southern Federal District of the Russian Federation (Map 5).
MAP 5
MAP 6
For now, it would be more accurate to analyse the Russia-Ukraine struggle that started with the occupation of Crimea in three separate phases. As a result of the events unfolding as described above, the annexation of Crimea actually constitutes the second phase after Georgia within the framework of Russia's general operation, but the first phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The second phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war started with an operation carried out by Russian special forces and protests against Ukraine in the Donetsk and Luhanks oblasts, which are located in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, also bordering the Black Sea, mostly Russian-speaking and identifying themselves as Russian. The events gained a different dimension with the declaration of Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics with the support of Russia. After these developments, the Minsk Protocol was signed on 5 September 2014 as a result of the negotiations between Russia, the Luhansk People's Republic, the Donetsk People's Republic and Ukraine to ensure a ceasefire, but despite the Protocol, the conflicts continued until 2022.
As a result of the ongoing conflicts and the instability created within Ukraine, Russia recognised the Donetsk and Luhanks People's Republics as ‘independent republics’ on 21 February 2022 and declared that the Minsk Protocol was no longer valid the very next day, and then Russian forces began the occupation of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. This is the beginning of the third phase of the Ukraine-Russia war, which is still ongoing.
Map 6 shows that after the second phase of the Ukraine-Russia war, two de facto people's republics emerged, of which Donetsk has a coast to the Black Sea via the Sea of Azov (Map 6).
In the third phase, which started with the occupation of Ukraine, the struggle for Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts continues (Map 6). Although the Russian Federation makes tactical withdrawals from time to time, I believe that it will not give up these two regions bordering the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea without making the Sea of Azov a Russian Lake. At the same time, most of the Ukrainian ports, with the exception of the most important port of Odessa, open to the Sea of Azov, and Russia's control of this port puts economic pressure on Ukraine.
Following the collapse of theSoviet Union, the Russian Navy began a sudden decline, but in recent years it has begun to modernise both its shipyards and its naval power. Russia has been modernising its shipyards on the shores of the Sea of Azov for some time and has been renewing its Black Sea fleet in particular, as the Arctic Ice Sea limits the mobility of its Navy and it has difficulties in reaching the open seas and most importantly the Mediterranean Sea. What is noteworthy in this modernisation is that the construction of submarinesand relatively small attack boats is given more importance. Because of the rivers flowing into both the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov, the salinity of both seas is low. For this reason, the low buoyancy of the water and the waterway to be followed to reach from the Caspian Sea to the Sea of Azov and from there to the Black Sea (Volga-Don Canal, the canal connectingthe Idyll River and the Don River with the shortest distance. It connectsthe Caspian Sea to the Black Sea via the Sea of Azov. The total length of the waterway is 101 kilometres, including 45 kilometres of streams and artificial lakes. Map 7) It is estimated that the fact that it passes through narrow and low-depth points at some points plays a role in this.
MAP 7
MAP 8
It should not be overlooked that while Russia is strengthening its Black Sea fleet, it is also reinforcing its Caspian Sea Fleet, whose legal status was recently resolved by the littoral states, with modern surface ships. The capability of Russia's fleet deployed in the Caspian Sea should not be underestimated. It is known that ISIS targets in Syria were hit by long-range missiles fired from the ships of this fleet in 2015. Missile attacks on Ukraine from the same fleet continue from time to time.
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I am of the opinion that the naval power deployed in the Caspian Sea, with access to the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea via the Volga and Don rivers and the canals connected to these rivers, will provide the Russian navy with great flexibility and at the same time security. In addition, Russia has started to consult with the countries of the region on the idea of opening a new canal to connect the Don and Volga rivers. If it is decided to build it and the canal is constructed to allow the operation of high tonnage shipping vessels, it will clearly rival the Central Corridor ( Map 9 ), which is planned to start from Lithuania and connect to Istanbul via Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, creating an alternative shortcut option to China's connection to Europe through the Road-Belt Project (Map 8). With this move, it is valued both as a trump card to force Ukraine to peace and as an effort to keep Russia's trade and energy lines under its control.
In the light of these developments, the importance of the Black Sea seems to have increased in geostrategic and geopolitical terms since it is the transit route of the energy resources that the West needs but the East has.
The importance of the Montreux Convention on the Straits, which regulates the rules of passageto the Black Sea, which is the only sea where non-Black Sea coastal countries cannot enter with open arms, once again emerges. According to the Convention, warships that will pass through the Turkish Straits must notify the Turkish authorities at least 8 days in advance for littoral countries and at least 15 days in advance for non-littoral countries. There are a number of tonnage and number restrictions for the passage and a limitation on the duration of stay in the Black Sea. Warships of foreign countries cannot stay in the Black Sea for more than 21 days. For this reason, the forces supporting the ‘Revolution of Roses’ in the Russia-Georgia war could not go to help and Russia finished its work in Georgia within three weeks.
In the coming period, we need to be very vigilant against the demands for updating and/or amending the Straits Convention. Especially after Bulgaria and Romania became NATO members, the plans to build military bases worth billions of dollars in both countries will definitely demand an update of the Straits Convention on the passage of warships to the Black Sea with the establishment of a NATO Naval Base in one of these two states in the near future. Already in April 2024, NATO has shown how eager it is to step into the Black Sea by conducting the Naval Shield Exercise with 12 NATO member states in the Black Sea.
Any amendment to the Convention on the Straits requires a request from one of the littoral states and the amendment must be approved by the littoral states of the Black Sea. This demand will come sooner or later. It would probably not be a surprise to predict that the autonomous regions bordering the Black Sea, which Russia has caused to be established with its operations in the last 15 years, will declare their independence in their geographies and become part of the Commonwealth of Independent States. I believe that it would be the most appropriate course of action for those in power at that time to make decisions according to national interests, or more precisely, within the framework of Realpolitik.
I wanted to draw your attention to the fact that the developments in the region are closely related to Turkey and even put the Black Sea at the focal point. The richness of the Exclusive Economic Zone that Turkey has in the Black Sea, the fact that the transit routes of energy transmission lines follow the Black Sea and Anatolian directions, and the fact that this line is located right on the nodes of the routes that will connect the developing Far East economy in the western direction bring great gains for Turkey. I consider that the keystone of the expansion and protection of these gains is the Montreux Convention on the Straits.
MAP 9 (cover page)
