Russia will not attack Ukraine, however!

Summary History of Ukraine

If we take a look at the history of today's Ukraine, this region, which was founded by the Scythians for the first time in history and came under the rule of the Goths in the 3rd century BC, remained under the rule of the Huns in 375 until the end of the 5th century, and in this process, the Slavic tribes settled in Ukraine and became their homeland.

The capital of the Principality of Kiev (Kievskaya Rus), which ruled between 882-1132 and considered the ancestor of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, was the capital of today's Ukraine, Kiev. In the 12th and 13th centuries, when the Kievan Kinesis dissolved and became independent principalities, the lands of today's Ukraine came under the rule of Moscow.

Ukraine, which struggled for independence with Lithuania and Poland for centuries, took its place again on the European map between the 16th and 18th centuries as the Zaporozhye Election, a community of military and administrative administrations.

As a result of the 1672-1676 Ottoman-Poland Wars, the Podolia Province was established under the rule of the Ottoman State in the historical Podolia region covering the southwest and midwest of Ukraine.

At the end of the Ottoman-Russian War of 1676-1681, the Bakhchisaray Agreement was signed in Crimea between the Ottoman Empire, the Crimean Khanate and the Russian Tsardom.

According to the agreement, which was accepted to be valid for 20 years, the Dnieper River passing through Ukraine was determined as the border between the Russian Tsardom and the Ottoman Empire. As a result, Zaporozhye came under Ottoman rule. Ottoman domination in the region lasted until the 1699 Karlowitz Agreement.

After the 1917 Socialist Revolution, the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic took its place within the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).

During World War II, almost all of the territory of Ukraine was occupied by Nazi Germany. The Nazi massacres manifested themselves most violently in Ukraine. During the war, partisan wars took place in the country. Ukraine was liberated from Nazi occupation in 1944. 5 million Ukrainians died in the war, and the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic was incorporated in 1945.

Gaining Independence

Ukraine left the Soviet Union on August 24, 1991. Leonid Kravchuk became the country's first head of state. In 1996, Leonid Kuchma took the chair of the presidency and a significant momentum was gained in relations with Russia.

The pro-Russian policies implemented by Yanukovych, the former governor of the city of Donestk in the Donbass region, which is the problematic area between Russia and Ukraine, who came to the office of Prime Minister during Leonid Kuchma's term and is still in exile in Russia, caused great mass protests.

The mass protests that started with the demand for Yanukovych's removal from power turned into armed clashes between the police and the demonstrators, turning the capital into a battlefield. More than 100 people lost their lives and hundreds were injured in clashes between the activists, most of whom were radical nationalists, and the security forces.

The biggest tragedy in the center of gravity of the Russia-Ukraine crisis is the crash of the Boeing 777-200 type passenger plane belonging to Malaysian Airlines on July 17, 2014, in the village of Hrabove, in the Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine, 60 kilometers away from the Russian border, resulting in the death of 298 people. airline disaster.

The problem, which started in 1991 when Ukraine officially gained its independence from Russia and made the Donbask region a center of gravity, attracted more attention from the outside world with this event, and the problem became internationally discussed.

Ukraine's Moves

In order to strengthen Ukraine's defense systems against Russia, it gave priority to the procurement of western origin weapons and equipment, and in this context, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which maintains a special friendship relationship with the Republic of Turkey as the first country to recognize its independence, received 7 Bayraktar TB2 Unmanned UAVs from Turkey in 2019. It has taken an important step in strengthening its defense by purchasing an Air Vehicle (UAV).

Developments over time brought the issue of membership to NATO, which Ukraine sees as a western shield that can protect itself, on the agenda, and the point reached as a result of some unofficial contacts with NATO authorities, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on 5 November 2019, "All allies have decided that Ukraine should become a NATO member. Montenegro joined NATO only two years ago. North Macedonia will join NATO in a few months. We've seen this before, after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Poland, the Baltic states. No one could have imagined that they would become members of NATO. couldn't," he said. By saying that, he offered an important support to Ukraine.

Stoltenberg promised to help Kiev strengthen reforms and modernize society so that Ukraine can become a member of NATO. Replying, "This country is one of the 40 partners of the alliance," he said:

“For some countries, partnership is the first step towards membership. But for all countries, partnership is a continuing relationship with NATO. It should be understood that there is a great distance between the 'no relation' status and the 'full membership' status.” With his strong message, Ukraine was announcing the NATO dialogue.

As it is known, the years 2020 and 2021 turned into a show of strength between the heads of state of Russia and Ukraine and the official military forces, and the year 2021 passed with the news of the murder of a Ukrainian soldier almost every day in the Donbask region. President of Ukraine Zelensky and his government constantly went through intense diplomacy to gain the support of the western world.

On April 15, 2021, the British broadcaster BBC reported that the world public opinion again turned to the Russian-Ukrainian border. In the news and satellite images, Russia was massing 14 000 soldiers and a significant number of tanks and armored vehicles on the Ukrainian border in the Donbas region. This number was later announced by the Ukrainian official organ as 40 000 soldiers.

What could it be?

Undoubtedly, Russia has made an important move against Ukraine by making a significant number and quality of military build-up here. However, before answering the question of whether this move will result in an invasion, it is useful to analyze Russia's previous moves in detail.

The fact that Russia, which seized Crimea in 2014 with a fait accompli, now appears to be preparing to invade Ukraine, has brought the West face-to-face with a new threat. However;

In the post-World War II bipolar world, both the USA, the founding leader of NATO, and the Soviet Union, the founding leader of the WARSAW PACT, remained in the strongest position in their spheres of influence and displayed all kinds of military power and intelligence activities in the name of deterrence during the cold war.

In the new world order formed by the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, the sphere of influence of both pacts weakened and more flexible policies were developed by weakening NATO's idea of ​​protecting and guarding the European continent. While implementing a stricter branding policy with the solidarity of the Commonwealth of Independent States, it took care to use a more careful language against the pro-western countries that broke away from the pact, such as Ukraine and Lithuania in Eastern Europe.

With the new policy it has adopted; It is seen that it has adopted the policies of attracting Western European countries against the USA. Instead of controlling the countries that receive the support of the West, such as Ukraine, by sending troops, in the first stage; It is understood that he implemented the strategy of aligning the separatist forces in these countries by supporting them or by producing high-tension policies to bring the governments under his control instead of the current governments, and then in the second stage: to enter these countries at the invitation of these governments.

The recent example of Kazakhstan is a clear example of this and it has successfully implemented this strategy here. If he had entered Kazakhstan by force by giving a military note, he would have received a great reaction from the world, but his entry into Kazakhstan at the invitation of the Kazakh government in order to prevent the uprising and internal turmoil in Kazakhstan did not attract any reaction. This strategy is the current application of a kind of "steel hand with velvet gloves" policy.

Conclusion

It seems that the outbreak of a Ukraine-Russia war in the near future does not seem rational, but it is understood that Russia's new proposal, the two-stage plan, has been put into effect. It is possible that after a controlled tension period, a pro-Russian government like Yanukovych will come in Ukraine and it is a planned strategy to give way to Russia's second move.