The Global Food Crisis and the Danger of Hunger

Cases of Hunger and Famine in the 20th Century:

It is known that food shortages and famine problems have been experienced in various periods throughout the world from ancient times to the present. The problem of famine, which is seen in many countries in Africa and still continuing in Somalia, is not new. Millions of people died because they did not have enough food. Just looking at the famine and hunger problems experienced in the last century is scary enough for humanity and is a reminder of the necessity of taking precautions:

• A total of 25 million people died in the food crisis in China between 1907 and 1911.
• In 1919, 763,000 German citizens lost their lives due to the embargo in Germany to force the Germans to sign the Treaty of Versailles.
• Between 1917 and 1919, an estimated 2-10 million Iranian citizens lost their lives due to famine. It is known that the Russian and Tatar population, who lost their lives due to famine in 1921, was around 7 million.
• Between 1928 and 1930, famine in China killed 3-10 million people. As a result of the famine in Ukraine in 1932, 7 million Ukrainians lost their lives. Again in 1936, 5 million Chinese died due to starvation in China.
• In the city of Leningrad, which was besieged by the Germans for 900 days between 1941-44, a total of 1 million people from Leningrad lost their lives due to the extreme cold (-40 degrees) and lack of food.
• The famines in China and Iran in 1942 caused the death of 3 million people in both countries. Due to the Japanese siege in 1944, 2,400,000 people died of starvation on the Indonesian island of Java.
• The Great Food Crisis in China between 1958 and 1962 was the worst famine in world history, and a total of 15-55 million Chinese died.
• As a result of the Second Congo War between 1998 and 2004, 2,700,000 people died from starvation and disease.

First Pandemic Then War Triggers Global Food Crisis:

With the pandemic that emerged in 2019, there were closure phases around the world, and food production slowed down. Shrinking food production during the pandemic period caused food prices to increase in the market, but food shortages were not experienced on a global scale at that time.

In the middle of 2021, a gradual normalization was made in pandemic measures. Consumption also increased rapidly. Markets revived. With the effect of supply-demand imbalances during the pandemic period and the global stimulus packages of 10 trillion USD afterwards, world markets were more active than usual and countries were faced with a global inflation phenomenon.

Described as the factory of the world economy, China; tried to meet the production demand after the pandemic. This situation directly affected both the energy sector and consumer indices negatively. An inflationary environment has emerged throughout the world, especially in oil and natural gas prices.

As a result, food prices were also affected. Meanwhile, it has been talked about that markets should get used to the "scarcity economy" in the 2020s, unlike in the 2010s.

Global Food Problems Caused by the Russia-Ukraine War:

The world, which has just emerged from the pandemic environment, focused on another crisis that emerged in Eastern Europe this time. The tension between Russia and Ukraine from the middle of 2021 brought Russia's attempt to invade Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Meanwhile, with the effect of the sanctions, energy prices have increased and natural gas prices have almost quadrupled in European countries.

In the same period, the food crisis triggered by the Ukraine-Russia war caused the fear that humanity might face the problem of hunger. With the effect of this fear, warnings came one after another from many international institutions. The whole world is on alert. Even Europe seems to be affected by the food problem.

The great pressure of the Ukraine-Russia war on energy and especially food prices quickly spread to other areas. Thereupon, many international organizations, including the United Nations, increased their warnings. Wheat and corn prices peaked globally due to the war in Ukraine and Russia, known as the 'bread basket' of the world. In addition to the increase in wheat and corn prices, the impact of the food crisis is increasing in other food products.

David Beasley, Head of the World Food Programme, said: “The shells and bombs in Ukraine could exacerbate the global hunger crisis. "Supply chains and food prices will be significantly affected," he warned. According to the news in the world press, the pain of wheat famine has already begun to be felt in Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria, which are among the North African countries. Although Algeria tried to fend off the crisis with some preventive measures, it has not been able to overcome it yet.

Far Eastern countries are also adversely affected by the wheat shortage. Among these countries, especially Indonesia, is a country fed with Ukrainian wheat. Indonesia, which is among the top countries importing wheat from Ukraine, is in search of importing wheat from other countries.

The situation is getting worse:

It is said that many countries in Indonesia, Pakistan, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will be among the first to experience food problems due to their dependence on the Ukrainian market. Meanwhile, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shares estimates that 8-13 million additional people worldwide will suffer from malnutrition if food exports from Ukraine and Russia are stopped permanently.

According to FAO's 2022 Global Food Crisis report, approximately 193 million people in 53 countries/regions experienced crisis or worse levels of access to food in 2021 due to conflicts, global warming, variable weather conditions and the economic effects of the pandemic. “193 million” indicates an all-time high. This growth, which means an increase of approximately 40 million compared to 2020, has globalized the fear of access to food. In particular, warnings are made that the population of Ethiopia, Southern Madagascar, South Sudan, Sudan, Yemen, Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan, Southern Niger, Syria, Pakistan and Haiti may face the problem of hunger at the highest rate in the world, and urgent measures are needed to prevent collapse. attention is drawn.

The Global Food Crisis report emphasized that the Russia-Ukraine War revealed the interconnected nature and fragility of global food systems. Countries that are highly dependent on food and agricultural imports, in particular, are defined as more vulnerable to global food price shocks. It is emphasized that such countries are vulnerable to the risks of war in Eastern Europe.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also said that Russia's war in Ukraine caused the prices of agricultural products to increase. Guterres warned that "if the war and the increase in prices continue, there may be a global food crisis". Guterres stated that especially in underdeveloped countries and poor peoples, food security is in more serious danger due to war. Guterres warned that the world could face years of famine if food exports from Ukraine do not return to pre-war levels.

Sunflower oil and some grain products that Ukraine wants to export cannot be exported because the ports of this country are closed. While this situation reduces the food supply on a global scale, it also causes prices to increase at the global level. According to UN data, global food prices increased by around 30 percent in USD terms compared to the same period last year.

India Bans Wheat Export:

The war in Ukraine brings disaster upon disaster, but this war is only part of the food and hunger problem.

India is the second largest wheat producer in the world. When the wheat export of Ukraine was cut off due to the occupation of Russia, the eyes were turned to other producer countries. It was thought that India could be a support for the countries that could not import wheat from Ukraine. However, the Government of India suddenly decided to ban wheat exports on May 13, 2022, with the thought of protecting its population approaching 1.5 billion from the negative effects of the global food crisis. Before this ban, which came one week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's words 'India is ready to feed the world', it was said that India could export 10 million tons of wheat in 2022. This ban was immediately reflected in food prices. Wheat futures prices traded in Chicago rose 5.9 percent to 12.47 USD. According to Reuters, corn prices increased by 2 percent and soybean prices by 0.8 percent. Price increases were experienced in other food products as well, and they continue to be experienced.

While the increases in energy and food prices throughout the world caused a global increase in inflation, the central banks of many developed countries, including the USA and England, had to increase interest rates.

The World Bank warned on April 27, 2022 that the Russia-Ukraine War would lead to the biggest price increase in the last 50 years. According to the World Bank, the global price increase will have "massive economic and human impacts." For now, no decline is expected, prices of raw materials, including fertilizers, metals and minerals, are expected to rise further. There is a possibility that tea, rice and timber prices may fall.

Conclusion:

The World Bank shares its assessment that “prices will generally peak in 2022, and this peak will be much higher than previously anticipated”. Also, “the outlook for product markets is largely due to the duration of the war in Ukraine and its supply chains, particularly in the Black Sea.” It is stated that it will be subject to disruptions”.

Meanwhile, India's ban on wheat exports a week ago triggered the global food crisis even more. Moreover, the expectation of a 69% increase in fertilizer prices this year may cause farmers to have to use less fertilizer in agriculture, which may lead to the risk of a decrease in agricultural yields on a global scale. Considering the news that China has stockpiled food for the last two years and the climate scenarios, together with the food crisis, the world, and especially the people of poor countries, awaits a great hunger problem in the coming years, if global measures are not taken.

All in all, 2022 is considered to be a challenging year in all aspects. It is predicted that there will be problems in food supply for a while in 2023 and beyond. The increase in food prices in Turkey has exceeded 100% in Turkish currency. Although a decrease in food prices is expected to some extent in the summer of 2022, Turkish people; Considering the high inflation and the crisis in economic life, it seems very difficult to consume cheap food in the coming years.