The Role of Water Will Continue to Grow in India-Pakistan Tensions

The historical Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan has finally escalated into limited military action. What distinguishes this conflict from previous low-intensity and limited clashes is India's clear play of the Indus Waters card.

India announced that it was suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (1) and subsequently took measures such as closing and suddenly opening the gates of dams for the purpose of cleaning sediment.

The Kashmir issue is essentially a problem left behind by British colonial rule when it withdrew from the Indian subcontinent. When Britain withdrew from the Indian subcontinent, it left behind many problems, such as the sharing of administrative institutions and material resources, the sharing of transboundary water resources, and disputed borders. The failure to clarify the status of the principalities that were bound to Britain by special agreements also caused serious crises between India and Pakistan, which were in the process of nation-building.

History of the Kashmir Issue

While India and Pakistan managed to resolve most of the issues inherited from the British, they failed to agree on the status of the Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir Principality, which was ruled by a Hindu Maharaja. The war that followed this disagreement resulted in the division of the Jammu and Kashmir Principality (Kashmir). After the conflicts, the ‘Azad Kashmir Administration’ was established in the western part of the Jammu and Kashmir Princely State, covering one-third of its territory and with Muzaffarabad as its capital, under Pakistani control. The eastern part, covering two-thirds of the Jammu and Kashmir Princely State, remained under Indian control.

This division did not resolve the issues and the Kashmir question has remained a source of tension between the two countries, occasionally leading to border clashes. The Kashmir question is actually the result of a movement that began against British colonialism in the region and led to the establishment of nationalist movements in both countries. Ultimately, the Kashmir issue, which holds a significant place in the construction of national identity for both countries, has transformed into a mechanism that triggers new crises and fuels conflict.

Indus Waters Agreement

The Indus Waters Agreement was signed between Pakistan and India under the auspices of the World Bank in September 1960. The agreement, which defines the rights and obligations of the two countries regarding the use of the waters of the Indus River system, outlines the use of the waters of six rivers in the eastern and western parts of the Indus Basin by the two countries.

Under the agreement, control of the Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers, which feed the Indus River, was granted to India, while control of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers was granted to Pakistan. Since the rivers granted to India feed the Indus more extensively, Pakistan was granted rights over these rivers. A clause was also added to the agreement granting India rights to energy production, agriculture and fishing.

Under the Indus Waters Agreement, India, which is obliged to share part of the water flowing from the three transboundary rivers in the east with Pakistan, has accelerated the construction of dams in the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region under its control. In this region, it has started the construction of the Ratle and Kishanganga hydroelectric power plants on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers. The Kishanganga hydroelectric power plant was completed in 2018, and the Ratle Dam is scheduled to be operational by 2026. This dam is a concrete gravity dam with a height of 133 m, an installed capacity of 850 MW, and a total storage capacity of 78 million m³. Pakistan has taken the issue to the World Bank and the Court of Arbitration, claiming that the project violates several provisions of the Indus River Agreement.

The Arbitration Court rejected Pakistan's objections to the project, stating that they were submitted after a three-month period that did not meet the conditions of Annex D of the IWT. Additionally, India had previously stated that it does not recognise the jurisdiction of the Arbitration Court in this matter. The Ratle hydroelectric project is located in the Kishtwar region of Jammu and Kashmir, upstream of the 450 MW Baghlihar project and downstream of the 390 MW Dulhasti project. There are also several other dams and hydroelectric power plants planned by India in the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region.

Among these is the Pakal Dul Dam, which will be the region's tallest dam and hydroelectric power plant, standing at 167 metres high with a capacity of 1,000 MW, and is nearing completion (4). Pakistan has lodged a complaint with the World Bank in 2019 over these dam projects, which it claims block water flow or control large amounts of water.

The meetings held in Washington in May 2020 between the two countries' officials and the World Bank, which is the guarantor of the agreement, ended without a decision. While India argues that these dam projects are in line with the agreement, Pakistan claims that the dams will create water shortages and flood risks. India requested that the agreement be formally reviewed and amended in 2024, but Pakistan stated that it would adhere to the agreement in its current form. These developments have recently begun to seriously threaten the water cooperation between the two countries, which had been running smoothly for a long time.

The growing strategic importance of the waters of the Indus Basin

The Indus River Basin is governed by an agreement signed in 1960, which, despite various objections, has prevented the severance of relations between the two countries and established a basin commission in the region. The escalation of disputes over water sharing in the basin or the emergence of new problems is fuelled by the historical Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan. Kashmir is a historical area of conflict between India and Pakistan since independence. Both countries claim sovereignty over the entire region. The tributaries of the Indus River originate in Indian territory, particularly in the Kashmir region controlled by India. India has implemented a hydropolitics strategy to control water in this region, developing numerous dams and hydroelectric power projects. This not only gives India control over water but also strengthens its dominance in Kashmir. Agriculture accounts for 24% of Pakistan's gross domestic product (GDP), and 37% of Pakistan's workforce is employed in the agricultural sector. Therefore, the dams built by India to control water will provide it with a huge strategic advantage. The fact that a large portion of the water flowing to Pakistan originates from and passes through the Kashmir region, which is controlled by India, makes water cooperation a necessity rather than a preference in resolving the Kashmir dispute.

As seen during the recent conflict between India and Pakistan, water has been used as a strategic resource. In other words, control over water resources has become a geopolitical pressure tool in the tension between India and Pakistan, and water has become a strategic resource. India's recent statements regarding the Indus Waters Treaty and its moves to control water have broken with the tradition of isolating water sharing cooperation in the region from political and military tensions.

India's suspension of the Treaty on the Indus River system was a hydro-strategic move aimed at securing its revision. India has embarked on an effort to establish hydrogeopolitical control in the region through the limited use of military force. In this effort, the importance of water as a rapidly growing strategic resource for the region has played a crucial role. Transboundary water resources, under pressure from climate change and rapid population growth, will become natural resources of increasing strategic importance in this region and will play the most important role in determining its future.

Water will shape the future of the region

India's decision a month ago to ‘suspend’ the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which is cited as an example of water cooperation agreements around the world, has dealt a serious blow to a long tradition of cooperation.

During this period, statements made by both countries on water will play a role in facilitating the securitisation of water in transboundary rivers and its use in national security strategies in the region and around the world.

India has put the water card it has long held in relation to Kashmir on the table. It can be said that this latest escalation in Kashmir is not a water crisis that will lead to a water war, but rather the beginning of a crisis of water strategies being pursued through Kashmir.

The water strategy moves by India and Pakistan are aimed at reducing the threats that will arise from the sharing of water in the near future. This is because the Indus Basin is affected by climate change.

Kashmir is the heart of water in the region. From now on, water resources will be used as a tool to shape a new equation through terrorism and nationalism in the region. Therefore, the threat of international powers turning the long-standing geopolitical tension in South Asia into a new wave of conflict over the sharing of water resources has increased. This new equation, which will be shaped by water, terrorism and nationalism, will affect not only Pakistan and India but the entire region. Therefore, the new water equation has emerged as a more useful tool in maintaining or disrupting the regional security balance.

In the Indus River Basin, rather than a water war in the short term, tense diplomacy, mutual threats, and international mediation are likely to take centre stage. In this process, it is necessary for the basin countries to develop their hydro-diplomatic relations with the mediation of international organisations. This new situation requires the Indus basin countries to stay away from hydropolitics that would allow for intervention or direction by external powers. In addition, steps should be taken to renew the Indus Waters Treaty, taking into account new conditions such as climate change and population growth. This is because the treaty was made in 1960 based on the climate conditions and population of that time and does not fully reflect today's changing environmental and socio-economic needs. Furthermore, issues such as new water management models and water efficiency studies are not included in this treaty.

The status of all dams constructed and planned by India in the basin in recent years should be identified in a detailed report. The operating conditions of dam projects that would give India absolute control over the water to be allocated to Pakistan should be determined in a manner that does not violate Pakistan's water rights and should be included in the revised Indus Waters Agreement. The operation of these dams in accordance with the terms of the agreement should be monitored by the Basin Water Commission as well as international organisations. In conclusion, all technological possibilities and applications of hydro diplomacy should be utilised to prevent tension from building up on the hydrogeopolitical fault line in the Indus basin.

Sources

[1] Nishant Sirohi ‘Indus Treaty in “Abeyance”: A Strategic Pause, Not a Legal Breach’ Indus Treaty in ‘Abeyance’: A Strategic Pause, Not a Legal Breach Apr 28, 2025

[2] Major Dams in Jammu and Kashmir (Map) https://lotusarise.com/maps/dams/major-dams-in-jammu-and-kashmir-map/?srsltid=AfmBOopLE4NKRcFF_Qk52N2V-4T1oxXyX0iTChOuo9JsgTw7kQ6VFDLO

[3] Majed Akhter, (2015) The hydropolitical Cold War: The Indus Waters Treaty and state formation in Pakistan, Political Geography, Volume 46, 2015, Pages 65-75, ISSN 0962-6298, . (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629814001255)

[4] Jammu & Kashmir PrevNext Pakal Dul Hydropower Project

https://www.drishtiias.com/state-pcs-current-affairs/pakal-dul-hydropower-project