Tripartite Summit in Sochi

How quickly time passes. There's no need to go too far, that's the pace of the routine, but on the face of it. But let's not forget that the conspiracy works that are planned and organized behind closed doors take place on a different level and plane. Sensitivities and sensitivities are produced on how to exploit them. You can feel it, indeed. Now, don't you have to ask? So, can the problems be solved in the same time frame? There is no possibility. Problems evolve towards problematization and are postponed as much as possible. It is really difficult to express this in a justified event or phenomenon, especially in the South Caucasus. Unfortunately, international law, which should be respected the most, cannot be a solution to this situation. You can say, because the parties are looking at the issue from their own paradigm. In this situation, it is extremely difficult to establish and maintain peace and justice in this geography. Let's remember, exactly one year ago, the 44-day war in Karabakh was ended with a habit inherited from the Soviet Union and still continuing, more precisely, with the pressure of Russian President Putin on Azerbaijan, with a "tripartite declaration".

The rationale of Vladimir Putin, who left his mark on Russia's last 20 years and will remain in power until 2036, is ready: referring to the Soviet Union (SB), "as peoples who have lived in the same state for centuries." That's wrong, SB barely survived for 70 years. He has recently entered a vegetative state. He is probably trying to mean the Republic of Turkey, the continuation of the Ottoman Empire. The hand son says. If you say such a thing, you will immediately be stigmatized as “Neo-Ottomanist”. Do you remember the trio photo around the round table in Sochi? The image of Azerbaijan and Armenia reminds two heads of state and government who are held to account. At the end of every war, there is a truce, armistice, strife. But let's see that in a significant part of international law, one cannot even say a full 'ceasefire agreement'. Why? Because the ceasefire agreement has a legal sanction. Because the ceasefire agreement evolves into a political agreement. It seems as if a special effort is being made so that the ceasefire agreement does not evolve into a political agreement. The 'Statement' is an indication of an instantaneous open-ended quality. It is an indication that the war is not over yet… One year after the end of the 44-day war, do the hostilities continue? In spades. So, does the implicit and open support for Armenia continue? By members of the Minsk group themselves. The whole goal is to strengthen Armenia against Azerbaijan.

When Armenia is mentioned, it is necessary to put the RF aside. Like the US passion for Israel in the Middle East, Armenia is the Israel of the RF. The relations between Russia and Armenia are strategic, they have deep historical roots in the Caucasus, like Greece, which was taken to Western Anatolia after the First World War. The largest investor in the Armenian economy is Russia, and Armenia's largest commercial and economic partner is Russia. It is evident even from the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who presided over the second meeting at the trilateral summit in Sochi on November 26, 2021, presented a golden olive branch, a symbol of peace and prosperity, to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. In ancient, Jewish, Christian and Islamic traditions, the blessed tree is the olive branch, a symbol of peace. Putin's statement, "I hope that today's decisions will be implemented and will generally create opportunities for the next steps in the normalization of relations in the South Caucasus," is also an indication of Armenia's standing by it. In fact, a war of attrition is being waged in return for the realization of the "Zangezur Corridor" that will unite Azerbaijan with its territory, Nakhchivan. We see that this issue gained even more momentum after Russia expressed its views that the means of communication between the two countries and the opening of roads should be handled within the framework of territorial integrity, and that the roads should remain under the sovereignty of the Armenian side (1). Can you imagine the realization of this issue, which is futile to even bring up? This important issue is not even mentioned by us.

Let us remember again, that the liberation of the cultural capital of Azerbaijan, Shusha, from the Armenian occupation on November 8, 2020, caused the geopolitical mind to be put before the Armenian administration without delay. During the war, a ceasefire agreement to end the war was proposed to Armenia several times, but Armenia was never even there. But military service is different. That's why Putin didn't allow more, nor would it be allowed. What was noticed in the Karabakh war? Not to be encircled and captured by the Armenian Armed Forces at all costs. During the war, Armenia quickly escaped from the siege and has opened.

Apart from continuing the ceasefire violations that caused civilian casualties, which disregarded human rights during the war, Armenia also ignored the implementation of the ceasefire. He committed a 'crimes against humanity', which clearly has a place in international law, and no one was upset. The siege phenomenon is a military strategic move in which the Turks are most successful in the field. Understanding that after the capture of Shusa, Armenia faced the danger of 25 thousand soldiers falling under siege, it had to accept the conditions of Azerbaijan on 10 November 2020 and sign the tripartite declaration. (2) It was also unlikely that he would continue any more wars, militarily.

Armenia was so encouraged to continue the war by the three members of the UN Security Council that 15-20 days after the Armistice Agreement, sabotage groups were sent from Armenia to the liberated lands from the Lachin corridor, the region under the responsibility of the RF peacekeepers. A sabotage group of 62 people was detained and arrested by the Azerbaijan Armed Forces. Trying to cause a storm in a handful of waters, as always, and trying to describe the captured saboteurs as prisoners of war, Armenia demanded the return of the saboteurs they sent to Azerbaijan according to the Armistice Agreement. Could such a thing ever happen?

According to the conventions and conventions valid in international law, they are not prisoners of war, but members of sabotage groups, and their trial is expressly bound by Azerbaijani law. But let's see that no one should doubt that these saboteurs of Armenia were also rescued at the Sochi Trilateral Summit. Now it is useful to reiterate. Azerbaijan carried out its operation on its own territory and liberated Karabakh from the occupation of Armenia. He fought a war of liberation in his homeland. But let's see that the co-chairman of the Minsk Group, RF, who brought Azerbaijan to the ceasefire table under pressure, has become Armenia's lifeblood. That's why Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says he appreciates "Putin's role in stopping the 44-day war and the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces". (3)

Admittedly, this is not a new situation. The Minsk Group Co-Chairs, USA, France and RF, who believe that a geopolitical reality has emerged in the region after the thirty-year occupation of Azerbaijani lands, and are responsible for solving the problem, instead of encouraging Armenia for peace, they almost collapsed on Azerbaijan, as if there was nothing else to do. They did nothing but dictate to him. The mission of the Minsk Group Co-Chairs has become clear as to try to convince Azerbaijan that there is no other option and that it has to accept this 'de facto' situation.

A 'de facto' or 'de fakto', i.e. "de facto", "de facto" situation had arisen, 'de jure' meaning "according to the law" or "legally" could no longer be applied in Karabakh. Throughout the year, three “solution documents” were the indication of the deadlock proposed by the Minsk Group co-chairs on the table for the solution of the problem. The first of these was the 2007 Madrid Document, the renewed Madrid Document in 2009. The second was the 2011 Kazan Document proposed by Russia during the Presidency of Dmitry Medvedev, and the third was the Vladimir Document. It is the “2014 Lavrov Document” proposed by RF Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during Putin's term. Undoubtedly, although there are some differences and similarities between the documents, the common point of all of them was briefly as follows: First of all, the 5 occupied rayons (Agdam, Fuzuli, Cebrayil, Zangilan and Kubatlı), then the Armenian army will gradually withdraw from the remaining 2 rayons (Kelbacer and Lachin), Azerbaijani immigrants will return, the former Nagorno-Karabakh Ozer Region k would be given a temporary status and the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh would be determined in the next 10 years.

While Azerbaijan declared that it would not give the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region a status other than the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and would fight for it if necessary, Armenia demanded the right of self-determination to the Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, which is recognized as Azerbaijani territory. (4) By the way, in the suggestions made by the West and Russia, there was also the granting of the "right to self-determination", which would pave the way for independence for the Armenians living in Karabakh. Until the morning of September 27, 2020, that was all they did. That was all they said. There was only one way to break it, by executing a major operation based on his own strength. But, as Sun Tzu suggested, it is more important than anything else to prepare a suitable infrastructure that will make victory absolute in a struggle process, and to make a methodology that aims to achieve success without great losses. However, they considered it impossible for Azerbaijan to undertake such an operation. Why? There were no vehicles, no weapons, ammunition.

There was no such thing, first of all, it was deprived of the national spirit and national consciousness to fight, Azerbaijan. Three people were behind a rifle in the 1988 offensive of Armenia, there was no weapon, the military training was at zero degrees. But the old friend Turkey was on the side of Azerbaijan while Armenia was attacking, and it protected Azerbaijan's lack of military training. The Turkish Armed Forces had seen the deficiencies during the war and received training support. In this context, Turkey and Azerbaijan, within the framework of the "Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of Military Education" signed on 11 August 1992 and the "Military Education, Technical and Scientific Cooperation Agreement" signed on 10 June 1996, cooperation in the field of military education is based on 'self-reliance and self-sufficiency'. formed the important parameters of The Second Karabakh War started on the morning of 27 September 2020 on the contact line established after the First Karabakh War (1988-1994).

In this operation initiated by Azerbaijan, all of the 7 districts and a part of Nagorno-Karabakh that it has occupied since 1993 were recaptured in 44 days. However, at the end of the 44-day war and with the tripartite declaration of 10 November 2020, this geopolitical reality has completely changed. The other co-chairman countries of the Minsk Group, France and the USA, were not included in the tripartite declaration. It is seen that the USA and France are trying to sabotage the signing of a possible permanent peace agreement by keeping the status issue on the agenda after the signing of the tripartite declaration. Even though it was not directly involved in the tripartite declaration, it was a great achievement for Turkey to take part in the observation of the ceasefire in the lands liberated from the occupation, with the insistence of Azerbaijan. The memorandum of understanding regarding the Turkish-Russian Joint Surveillance Center established for the control and supervision of the ceasefire in the region in Karabakh was signed on 11 November 2020. The Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center established in Azerbaijan/Aghdam was extended for the second time in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey on 11 November 2021, according to Article 92 of the Constitution of the Republic of Turkey. In the center, which is 8 kilometers away from the contact line of the Turkish-Armenian forces, there are 60 Russian and 60 Turkish military personnel in the first place. Thus, Turkey settled militarily in the South Caucasus region with the signature of Russia. The important effectiveness and deterrence of this formation in maintaining peace will be seen very soon.

Do the problems continue in Karabakh, yes they do. Is there a solution? Undoubtedly there is. There is no doubt that an organization that Turkey is in will be able to produce a permanent solution for peace. What needs to be done here is the determination of the borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia as political borders, the first step of the road to stability in the region. In this regard, the establishment of a bilateral commission between the parties, especially at the Sochi Trilateral Summit, is the first stage of the road to peace. In addition to playing a positive role in the functionality of the Russian Peacekeeping Force in the region, the effective functioning of the "Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center" is a great gain for the region. However, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan's efforts to bring the USA to the region or to wink completely to the west do not go unnoticed. The policy of both RF, Azerbaijan and Turkey should be on not bringing the USA to the South Caucasus at all costs. Since the Joe Biden administration will have to focus on serious domestic problems such as infrastructure, poverty, inequality and polarization in order to prevent the Democratic Party from losing the majority in the Congress before the midterm elections to be held next year, it is thought that permanent solutions can be achieved in solving the problems between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Recent developments in the Black Sea and the Caucasus In the meeting of the National Security Council chaired by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on November 25, 2021, the emphasis on Armenia's maintenance of the ceasefire and the need to benefit from the peace offer is an indicator of this stance. The National Security Council made its statement on the eve of the important Armenian-Azerbaijani summit talks hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi. It should not be forgotten that people want to believe, the desire to meet the future together can really bring countries together. II. In order to defeat Germany and Japan in World War II, the United States, Britain and the Soviet Union formed an alliance. Similarly, Europeans and Americans joined forces in the postwar period to counter the Soviet threat. This is what is done today in the South Caucasus.
Long story short, in short, the triple declaration shook the geopolitical balance in the region to its roots and a new geopolitical reality, including Turkey, was created. The importance of Azerbaijan-Turkey cooperation in the creation of this reality is very important and it has also been revealed, dear readers, that this cooperation is goal-oriented and not just discourse.

Footnotes
(1) Massispost, “The War Is Not Over”, November 21, 2021; https://massispost.com/2021/11/the-war-is-not-over-yet/Access Date 28.11.2021/
(2) Javid Veliyev, The importance of the 'tripartite declaration', the document of the Karabakh victory, 12 November 2021; https://www.milliyet.com.tr/yazarlar/dusunenlerin-dusuncesi/karabag-zaferinin-belgesi-uclu-bildirinin-onemi-6640263?sessionid=3/Access Date 27.11.2021/
(3) https://en.armradio.am/2021/11/26/pashinyan-putin-discuss-bilateral-economic-relations-perspectives-of-regional-communication/ Accessed 28.11.2021/

(4) Javid Veliyev, The importance of the 'tripartite declaration', the document of the Karabakh victory, 12 November 2021; https://www.milliyet.com.tr/yazarlar/dusunenlerin-dusuncesi/karabag-zaferinin-belgesi-uclu-bildirinin-onemi-6640263?sessionid=3/Access Date 27.11.2021/
(5) Asbarez, “Erdogan Calls on Yerevan to Accept the 'Peace Offer'”, 26 November 2021; https://asbarez.com/ankara-urges-yerevan-to-embrace-offer-of-peace/Access Date 28.112021/