US debacle in Afghanistan and Turkey's Options

The Taliban came before the USA left.

The Afghan Interior Ministry announced that "Taliban militants have started to enter the capital Kabul from all directions and negotiations will begin for the transfer of the administration". The world was shocked by this news….

According to the Associated Press (AP) news agency, an Afghan official said Taliban negotiators would go to the Presidential palace to prepare for the 'handover' of power. Afghan Tolo News announced that current President Ashraf Ghani has left the country. Officials said that Gani went to Tajikistan, the neighboring country in the north.

Almost all of Afghanistan, whose administrative power was taken away by the USA in 2001, the Taliban took over the administration of the country again after 20 years, in a way as a gift from the USA, as a result of the intimidation and defeat of the Afghan official forces.

After the Soviet Union's intervention in Afghanistan in 1979, the Afghan insurgents, who played a wearing role in the Soviet administration that lasted for 10 years, provided support to the US CIA and the Pakistan Intelligence Organization (ISI), including light weapons, to these groups. These insurgents had a great influence on the withdrawal of Soviet forces in 1989. In the vacuum that emerged afterwards, the Taliban organization, which is part of this resistance mechanism, ethnically based on the Pashtu[1] tribes in the east of the country, was established in 1994. The group, which quickly gathered supporters and rose in the traditional Afghan society, defined its aim as getting rid of the warlords that emerged during the Soviet war and the civil wars that broke out afterwards. Declaring its founding philosophy as bringing an administration based on Islam in Afghanistan, the Taliban tried to establish its own dominance in Afghanistan, which could be described as an ethnically "patchy bundle"[2].

Religion is the most important factor that unites people in Afghanistan. The language, culture and history of the people are not common, they are quite different from each other. A closed society structure prevails. It can be said that the long absence of a strong central authority is forcing their common base to unite around the Taliban on the basis of religion.

The 2,430-kilometer Afghanistan-Pakistan border region has become a haven for organizations such as Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. According to experts who follow Afghanistan closely, the Taliban has been an organization that has been fighting a proxy war for Pakistan's interests in the region, especially since 1995. Taking advantage of the weakness of the central government in Afghanistan, it entered Kabul on September 27, 1996, took most of the country under its control in a short time, and ruled the country with terrorism until the end of 2001.

The USA blamed the al-Qaeda organization and its leader, Osama bin Laden, which took Afghanistan as its home for the attacks in which approximately 3 thousand people lost their lives in 2001. The Taliban were asked to hand over al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. The Taliban stated that they would not extradite Laden on the grounds that he was a "guest". Thereupon, the USA launched an operation against the Taliban on October 7, 2001, with the support of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. Losing all the cities in its hands, including the capital Kabul, in a short time, the Taliban retreated to Kandahar, which was its stronghold, and then lost this place and tried to hold on to the mountainous regions. Afterwards, the Taliban started to fight the forces of allied countries, including the USA and NATO, with guerrilla tactics, and the Western-backed Kabul government, which was organized according to the Presidential system established after 2001. Despite the fact that many of its leaders, including Mullah Omar, were eliminated by the USA, and al-Qaeda leader Laden was killed, the Taliban continued to exist and influence, albeit to a lesser extent in some periods.

The US-led military coalition, which has been in Afghanistan for nearly two decades, is now leaving Afghanistan like an almost defeated army. Out of the blue, the US administration signed a "withdrawal" agreement with the Taliban on February 29, 2020. The Biden administration has declared that they will withdraw completely by September 11. When we look back 20 years later, the USA and NATO together with their allies spent a total of 2 trillion USD in Afghanistan, but the "gain" achieved has become questionable nowadays. There is no demilitarized and as prosperous Afghanistan as possible. There is a state structure and people in Afghanistan, which has fallen even further back than in 2001, is more unstable and, above all, has lost hope. The United States and its allies spent about $2 trillion in Afghanistan to "kill Osama bin Laden". Now, when we look back from today, we read the picture as '20 years of effort means wasted'. Did it take 2 trillion/20 years to destroy a man?

The Biden administration had a prediction that Kabul could fall into the hands of the Taliban following the US withdrawal from the region. Within 6-12 months after the departure of the U.S. military Instead of intelligence evaluations or scenarios that predict that Bil may be occupied by the Taliban, it is said that 30-90 days over time, today the city will be taken over in almost 3-9 hours. Who can believe, or want to believe, that a US and NATO that deliberately leaves Afghanistan can bring peace and order to the world.

Today, the Taliban, with its relatively few armed militants of 50-60 thousand people, has almost finished the Afghan army of 250-300 thousand people, which is expected to be strong, trained and armed by the USA and its allies for years. Despite the air support provided by the United States and the light attack helicopters and planes in its inventory. The country is experiencing déjà vu again, and a strict regime with a religious-military structure is under the control of the Taliban.

The convinced Taliban declare their superiority over a disbelieving Afghan government and army. Our history readings did not mislead us again.

Regardless, Biden stressed that the decision to withdraw US forces was not in dispute, and despite the poor military performance of the Afghans, he was able to say that he "does not regret" the decision to end the 20-year campaign and does not consider any change. "We've spent over a trillion dollars in 20 years," he told reporters at the White House. We have trained and equipped more than 300,000 Afghan soldiers with modern equipment[3]. Afghan leaders need to come together now.” He threw the ball to the Afghan leadership, which he left in Afghanistan as his puppet. Who represents the Afghan leadership he trusts is unknown for now, but now the winds are blowing in the place of Ashraf Ghani, who tried to dominate the country by relying on the American soldiers and diplomatic mission.

Thinking that the situation could not be brought under control, the USA and the UK sent a total of 3,600 soldiers to this square under the control of Turkish soldiers to evacuate the personnel and their families at the Afghan Embassies to Kabul Airport, which is a safer place.

Duty to Operate Kabul Airport

For the last 6 years, Turkey has assumed responsibility for the operation and security of Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA) in Kabul. At the same time, training and aid activities were supported in Afghanistan. Along with the withdrawal process, the Turkish Government has shown a will for the Turkish soldiers to remain in Afghanistan in a way that will continue their current defined mission function, and has conveyed its willingness to the US and NATO authorities. The statement was limited to continuing to ensure the security of the airport. The message that Minister of National Defense Akar and President Erdoğan conveyed to their interlocutors on various platforms in the past months was as follows: “Our only expectation and request from the United States is to provide political (especially in the establishment of diplomatic relations), financial and logistical support for the Turkish unity to stay.” In this context, while negotiations with the USA continue, there is a situation that the airport will fall into the hands of the Taliban today and tomorrow. In English, the proposal of the Turkish Government was “overtaken by events”, that is, the table was overturned, and the proposal[4] remained obsolete in the face of the developing truth in the field[5].

So What Was the Importance of Kabul Airport?

Before the withdrawal, the number of passenger/transport planes landing and taking off from Kabul Airport was around 140-150 thousand on an annual basis. THY's flights from Turkey were one of them. Military flights (soldier and material transport, helicopter traffic, etc.) made up 70% of these annual 140-150 thousand flights. Except for the civilian side, only 140,000 people, mostly soldiers, were entering and exiting the military terminal under the control of Turkish soldiers. Permanently, 6,000 people were working in the airport's campuses inside the wire fence. While around 4,000 of these people are soldiers, about 2,000 of them work in construction, roads, etc., on behalf of the USA and NATO in Afghanistan. they were the members of the subcontractors that performed the infrastructure works[6].

Turkey, whose forces in Afghanistan have always consisted of non-combatant units, had offered to protect the airport as questions remained about how to secure the airport along the main transport routes and at the airport in Kabul.

The geography of Afghanistan mostly has a mountainous land cover. Land transportation is both difficult and has a serious security problem. Likewise, unsafe railways provide almost non-existent transportation opportunities throughout the country. The country has no connection with the sea anyway. Therefore, it is a necessity in every respect for Afghanistan to use the airline in order to establish a connection with the outside world. Kabul Airport, which has an international status, connects Afghanistan to the outside world by airway. It is the only entrance and exit gate of the capital, Kabul, to the world. There is no second international airport in the country.

The airport is strategically located close to the Afghan presidential palace and foreign diplomatic missions in Kabul and helps diplomats and their families evacuate in case of emergency. the only place to be. If it did, the security of the airport would serve as an important outlet for the safety of personnel and their families, an insurance to be held until the switch is lowered, to ensure the continuation of diplomatic missions remaining in Afghanistan as Western forces withdraw. The fact that this square is in the hands of the Taliban means, in a sense, that Afghanistan's connection with the outside world is cut off, and the power is transferred to the Taliban. Indeed, that is what it is.

The fact that the airport remained in NATO's hands would provide the basis for a strong diplomatic presence in Kabul after the withdrawal of US and NATO allies troops. Kabul Airport is one of the priority places in terms of ensuring security after the withdrawal. Some countries were citing airport and air transport security as a prerequisite for holding their diplomatic missions in Afghanistan. Moreover, international aid organizations were delivering the necessary humanitarian aid to this country using this airport. The US's Afghan allies would use this airport to "escape" when needed.

Variable End State

The Taliban have almost taken over Kabul. Compared to previous years, Turkey has been confronted with an increasing wave of Afghan migration via Iran. The United States probably has obligations to men and women who are Afghan allies serving Americans. If Turkey's door is closed to Afghans, the most important exit route for its allies escaping from the chaotic environment left behind by the USA will disappear. Even in Qatar, it is expected that the USA, which has assigned an American mission to coordinate these departures with a team of 1000 people, has taken some measures, albeit implicitly, on the Iran-Turkey route.

In any case, the biggest factor triggering Turkey to be a migration hotspot, in the simplest sense, is the possibility of going to Europe via Turkey. Europe's wealth is its charm. Europe does not, and never will, have the maturity and understanding to share its wealth with immigrants and open its borders. Whether we admit it or not, he eventually outsourced this business to Turkey. Like the Syrians who have settled in Turkey since the beginning of the 2010s, Afghans who came to our country are candidates to stay in Turkey for many years and then to bring their families back to Turkey. Except for a very small part of the Afghan migration wave, the "last stop" is Turkey. The reason why Turkey is a "last stop" is again the immigration policies followed and implemented by Turkey. Inevitably, it has to surrender to this flood of immigration due to reasons such as remaining reactive against migration waves, not being able to develop proactive policies and initiatives, and not being able to take the necessary measures.

Was the Turkey - EU Summit Statement dated 18 March 2016 the Beginning of the End?

According to the Turkey-EU reconciliation, which was welcomed by EU member states, Turkey was obliged to take back all illegal immigrants as of 20 March 2016, if the EU countries return them. What for: 3 billion euros? Was it worth it? Probably every Turkish citizen can easily answer this question. Moreover, the promises given to us (visa liberalization for EU countries, paving the way for EU membership process, providing additional financial support) remained in the air. The only thing that is not left in the air are migratory drops! Drop by drop, immigrants continue to fall from the air onto our land. They are everywhere from Ardahan to Kaz Mountains.

Except for those who have arrived in the last months, according to the data published by the UN refugee agency in 2020, it is known that there are 125,104 Afghan asylum seekers in Turkey, which currently hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees. We can already say that the number of Afghans will be around 900,000-1 million.

Turkey's Relationship with Afghanistan

There are strong historical ties between Afghanistan and Turkey. Following its establishment in 1920, one of the primary decisions taken by the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM) government was to send a representative to Kabul and to open a representative office in Afghanistan. Within the framework of this decision, Afghan-born Turkish officer Abdurrahman Samadan, who was appointed as the representative to Kabul, was in Kabul between August 1920 and June 25, 1922. Fahrettin (Türkkan) Pasha, the former Guard of Medina, was appointed as Ambassador to Kabul and served between 26 June 1922 and 12 May 1926. Following Fahrettin Pasha, in Kabul during Atatürk's time, Nebil Bey (West) 17 May 1926-30 June 1928 (Envoy), Yusuf Hikmet Bayur (Atatürk's Chief of Staff) 30 June 1928 - 1 August 1931 and Mahmut Şevket Esendal 19 He served as Ambassador between November 1933 and October 31, 1941. As the country with the first diplomatic mission in Afghanistan, the land where Turkey's Embassy in Kabul was established was gifted by the Afghan King Emanullah Khan of the time. It is established on a large land. The Embassy building is a beautiful campus that reflects the glory of Turkey in the east.

100 years ago, even at his weakest moment The Republic of Turkey, which makes establishing a strong bond with Afghanistan among its priorities, has a historical mission to play in order to take corrective steps in this country's structure that produces "instability" or gives the appearance of a "failed state", which came to the line with the 1979 Soviet invasion. Turkey cannot close its eyes to Afghanistan, cannot ignore the problems of the people of this country. First of all, for our Turkmen and Uzbek brothers living in this country, for our compatriots living in neighboring countries, we, as Turkey, have to show great interest in Afghanistan.

Turkey's Close Contact with Afghans Should Continue

We have historical ties with Afghanistan, with Afghans. It can be said that approximately 40% of the population of 35-40 million living in Afghanistan is of Turkish origin in ethnic terms. The Turkish communities in the north of Afghanistan have strong ties with the Turkic Republics, including the Uyghurs. Therefore, Afghanistan is one of our most important gateways to Central Asia. It was so historically, and it is so today. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said, "... Turkey is a country that hosts many Afghans and we want to establish close relations with. We do not see Turkey as an enemy but as an ally." description is correct.

The Russian Federation is not taking any steps to protect its embassy. It seems that China will be the first country to recognize the Taliban rule. Despite everything, the Taliban administration needs the support of the West, especially Turkey, in order to gain global acceptance as a legitimate administration. The Taliban has to establish communication channels for its legitimacy. Western society does not trust Pakistan in today's conditions for various reasons. By using the Kabul Airport as a catalyst through Turkey, the Taliban can open up to the outside world, this international airport can be its gateway to the outside world. It can achieve this by developing friendly relations with Turkey. Such an approach can be accepted by the Western world, especially the USA.

In any case, if the Turkish soldier can be found in Afghanistan on behalf of NATO, he can find the opportunity to act on a more comfortable ground. Being in Afghanistan with only national contacts and being there alone can bring different problems. It can be shackled from western countries. He may be forced diplomatically and cannot establish his power on the field as he wishes. It can continue to provide education (especially by further developing the Maarif Foundation's facilities, which has an effective communication mechanism and infrastructure), logistical and political support to Afghanistan, by being there wearing the NATO hat and backing the West. Even if it is difficult, it can lead to the establishment of stability in Afghanistan. It can play a strong mediator role between the parties.

Some of the references that we used in this article

BBC News, 18 March 2016, “EU refugee summit: Turkey - EU reach agreement.”, <https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2016/03/160318_ab_turkiye_anlasma_sonuc> s.e.t. 15.8.2021.

Turkey - EU Summit Statement dated 18 March 2016, <https://www.ab.gov.tr/files/AB_Iliskileri/18_mart_2016_turkiye_ab_zirvesi_bildirisi_.pdf> s.e.t. 15.8.2021.

Milliyet Haber, 15 August 2021 Breaking News... “The world is watching moment by moment! Taliban published photo”, <https://www.milliyet.com.tr/galeri/son-dakika-haberleri-reuters-afganistanin-yeni-lideri-belli-oldu-6575011/4> s.e.t.15.8.2021.

DW Haber, 29 July 2021, “Training of Afghan private military units begins in Turkey.”, <https://www.dw.com/tr/afghan-private-military-unions-training-starts-in-turkey/a-58682713 > set15.8.2021.

AKINER n. (2004). “The September 11 attacks and the American Media: The impact of the patriotic movement on the concept of the other and the bias of the media”, Journal of the Faculty of Communication, pp.33-42, <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/212379> set 15.8.2021.

BBC News, 20 July 2021, “The latest situation in Afghanistan: Erdogan sent 3 conditions to the USA to ensure the security of Kabul Airport”, <https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-turkiye-57898378> set15.8.2021.

Decision News, August 16, 2021, "Support from China to the Taliban: It will be the first country to recognize", <https://www.karar.com/dunya-haberleri/cin-talibani-taniyan-first-ulke-oldu-1628737 > set 16.8.2021.

Quartz, Today's news: August 16, 2021, <https://qz.com/emails/daily-brief/2047536/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=daily-brief&utm_content=654cef37-fe4b-11eb-88ee-2ac31111b5e7> set16.8.2021 .

Footnotes:

[1] 84 percent of Afghanistan is made up of Sunni Muslims. In the country's mixed ethnicity, the most populous population is Pashtuns with 38 percent. Most are in the south and east of the country. About the same number, around 15 million Pashtuns, live in northern Pakistan, which is the country's southern neighbor and has a long border. The Taliban have the potential to gain ethnic support from Pashtuns in Afghanistan and other Pashtuns in Pakistan. It is the only argument or tool that can serve to gather all ethnic elements under one roof in Afghanistan. can use the "Islamic Ummah" approach. To what extent this can be unifying is another question mark.

[2] Afghanistan is a patchwork of the peoples of neighboring countries. The north of Afghanistan consists of the peoples of the countries in the north: Tajiks, Turkmens, Uzbeks, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz etc. The population of Southern Afghanistan is the same as the population of Northern Pakistan: Pashtu, or Patan as it is known in Pakistan. It is obvious that it is quite difficult, if not impossible, to build a unitary state and a nation on which it is based, from such a patchwork bundle. Before the communist revolution, each ethnic group lived peacefully in its own area, as no one interfered with anyone and the central government handed over the affairs to local beys, aghas and tribal chiefs. However, this ethnic harmony and balance was disrupted when there was foreign intervention with the war.

[3] The soldiers who will serve in the Afghan army, which was almost re-established after 2001, were trained by allied countries, including Turkey, under the hat of NATO. During the training period, the soldiers were paid a monthly salary of 600 USD by NATO or the countries concerned had to undertake this financial burden. After the training, the salaries of these soldiers continued to be paid by the USA, with an average of 200 USD per month. Of course, these trained soldiers, in a way, lost their income, probably thinking that one day Afghanistan would fall under the control of the Taliban again, and either fled to Pakistan with their weapons, or fled to the ranks of the Taliban, who found the opportunity. It is as if NATO has become an indirect training gateway for the Taliban. While the Afghan army has everything to be a strong army in appearance, today it has collapsed in front of the Taliban like a body with its soul removed.

[4] Ankara has conducted the military and logistics operations of the Kabul international airport for 6 years within the scope of the NATO-led Resolute Support Mission. As part of Turkey's international force in Afghanistan, there were approximately 500 soldiers stationed at the airport, an air transport force with armored personnel carriers, small arms and two helicopters. After completing its mission as the Resolute Support Mission of NATO troops in September 2020, Turkey offered to the United States and then NATO to take over the security and management of the airport in Kabul. Turkey's idea while applying for this job is that the tasks it has been carrying out for the last six years will continue to be carried out in the same way. It is a limited task. The envisaged task was only to secure and operate the airport. Turkey's expectation was that the security around the airport would be provided by Afghan forces.

[5] Turkey also wanted to take an active role in negotiating the peace or transition process with the Taliban. Erdogan stated that Turkey was ready to discuss the peace process with the Taliban after the withdrawal and that the group should stop the invasion (a situation that was widely discussed in the press). Erdogan has been keen on Pakistani and Hungarian participation in the mission in Afghanistan. Speaking to Reuters, Suheyl Şahin, the spokesperson of the Taliban in Doha: “Turkey has been a part of NATO forces in the last 20 years, so they should withdraw in accordance with the agreement we signed with the US on February 29, 2020… On the other hand, Turkey is a major Islamic country. It has historical ties to Afghanistan. We hope to be in close and good relations with them when a new Islamic government is established in the future," he said, expressing the Taliban approach.

[6] Young Afghans, who became unemployed after the massive withdrawal of some 150,000 American and NATO troops at the end of 2014, began to flock to the West via Turkey. Those who could not go to the West stayed in Turkey. Because these 150 thousand soldiers provided employment to 3-4 thousand companies and more than 400 thousand Afghans.