What does Israel, which says that the war in Gaza will last at least 7 more months, aim with its so-called peace plan proposal?

Israeli Army's Attack on Rafah City Continues

The International Court of Justice ruled that Israel must immediately cease its military operations, attacks and other activities in Rafah, Gaza. The ruling was justified on the grounds that Israel's military activities pose an ‘immediate risk’ to the Palestinian people. However, Tel Aviv has done nothing more than ignore the International Court of Justice's call.

Netanyahu is not even thinking of halting operations in Gaza, stating that ‘there is no ceasefire in Gaza until Israel achieves its war aims’. Indeed, the Israeli army has taken control of the strategic area known as the Philadelphi Corridor, which runs along the border between Gaza and Egypt. Thus, having severed the link between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and continuing its offensive with tanks and armoured vehicles in the city centre and west of Rafah, Israel does not seem to intend to end the war. According to Tzachi Hanegbi, national security adviser to Butcher Netanyahu, Tel Aviv is planning to continue the war in Gaza until the end of 2024. The calculation is based on the assumption that the war in Gaza will continue for at least another 7 months. It seems that the Butcher cannot get enough of blood.

In the meantime, Egypt continues to keep channels open with Hamas and is mediating indirect talks with Israel to get Hamas to release the Israeli hostages held in Gaza.

On the other hand, two days ago, on Friday evening, the US President announced Israel's three-stage Gaza proposal and called on Hamas to accept it.

US President Joe Biden publicised a new three-stage Israeli proposal to Hamas and called on Hamas to accept a plan to release Israeli hostages in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza. As a parenthesis, I cannot understand why Sheriff Biden has taken on the mantle of Butcher Netanyahu. If Netanyahu really wanted peace, he would probably have announced it himself as a favour to Hamas in such a way as to make himself look like an apostle of peace to the whole world. I think that Netanyahu does not intend to make peace, he wants to distract the world by making a ‘peace offer’ in order to prevent the interruption of the Israeli army's uninterrupted operations, to keep the world busy with this, and to give Israel the critical time to seize the physical targets one by one in order to declare its victory.

Israel's Three-Phase Peace Plan Proposal

In the White House statement, it was stated that Israel's proposal has three stages. Accordingly, the stages of the plan will be as follows.

1) First Phase: Declaration of Temporary Ceasefire

It will last six weeks. A temporary but complete ceasefire will be declared. It is aimed that Israeli forces will withdraw from all populated areas of Gaza and Hamas will release some Israeli hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded. In return, Israel promises to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Since there will be a ceasefire at this stage, Palestinians will be able to go to their homes all over Gaza (many of which have been rendered uninhabitable by Israeli air and ground bombardments) and more humanitarian aid will be delivered to Palestinians. According to Biden, some 600 trucks loaded with relief supplies will enter and leave Gaza every day.

2) Second Phase: Declaration of a Permanent Ceasefire

All the remaining hostages alive will be released. The temporary ceasefire will come into full effect on a permanent basis. The parties will announce a mutual cessation of hostilities. In the meantime, negotiations and talks will be held between the parties to establish a permanent peace.

3) Phase Three: Declaration of Permanent Peace, Return of All Hostages

On 7 October, the remains of all hostages who were taken hostage and lost their lives will be handed over to Israel.

I assess that Biden wants to enter the 2024 elections as the leader who ended the Israeli-Palestinian War and paved the way for peace. Therefore, I expect diplomatic efforts under the leadership of the Biden administration to increase further in the third quarter of this year.

Conclusion

Hamas officials are primarily waiting for Israel to cease its attacks. They see a temporary or permanent ceasefire and the handover of hostages as related to this. In this context, Hamas stated last Thursday that it would not participate in negotiations while Israeli attacks continued. However, it underlined that if Israel stops the war, they are ready for a ‘full agreement’ in which Palestinian prisoners will be given in exchange for hostages. Israel, on the other hand, has stated that it will not stop its offensive in Gaza without any agreement that does not include the return of the surviving hostages in the first phase. The Israeli side speaks as if it is Hamas that proposes the peace plan and Israel that opposes it. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu insists that there will be no permanent ceasefire in Gaza until Hamas is defeated and all hostages are returned.

Meanwhile, there is also talk of a new governance mechanism for Gaza in the event of peace. Hamas advocates a self-controlled administration that includes the West Bank and Gaza. In fact, it states that it is in favour of the continuation of the situation before 7 October. Israel, on the other hand, expects an administration that is not affiliated with the West Bank and does not include Hamas to govern the Gaza Strip. By keeping the administrations of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip separate from each other, Israel continues to see the road to an independent Palestinian State, which is still recognised by 142 countries in total, as a threat to itself. It continues its efforts to prevent the establishment and recognition of the Palestinian State. Especially the fanatical and ultra-nationalist section, which forms the backbone of the current government, persistently opposes the two-state solution.

Can there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire under these circumstances? Can the three-stage plan be put into effect? I don't think so.