What is the Primakov Doctrine, What Does Putin Want To Do?

It was expected. As a show of determination, Russia continued its defiance, stood by what it said and did what it said. We all saw and watched together. As a matter of fact, let's put it a little academically, in a sense, he introduced a new eclectic doctrine of the 'Primakov Doctrine'. What shall we say, "Welcome, the Putin Teaching of the 'Primakov Doctrine'". The 'Primakov Doctrine', true to its name, is a doctrine produced entirely against NATO expansionism. With the end of the Cold War, NATO, which consisted of 16 countries, turned into a giant and cumbersome political structure of 30 countries, with the six enlargements of the former Warsaw Pact members. However, horizontal expansion in this center has brought with it a structure that cannot take decisions according to the establishment legislation. It is a palliative structure that cannot produce solutions and actions, which is summarized as “more words, less work”. Primakov's doctrine is essentially an expanded version of the Near Environment Doctrine by Andrei Kozyrev, Pavel Grachev and Evgeni Ambartsumov. It is a geostrategic action plan of the Atlanticists, which is characterized by "edge belt, containment, siege".

So, can this be seen as a counter-movement? Yes of course. But above all, all these integrate with 'Eurasianism'. There is no need for a lot of doctrinal structures, but the basis of these doctrines is the Tsarist period, the Soviet revolution and the intellectual acquis of the intellectuals opposing the revolution, and the effects of the bipolar cold war period, which defeated Napoleon and made himself accepted by European concert. (one)

Although the 'Primakov Doctrine', which dominates the Russian foreign policy, is attributed to the Chief of General Staff Gerasimov, it is accepted by the experts of this business that the military doctrine is actually the Primakov doctrine that has changed form and instrument. Let's remember together now. The idea of ​​'war without a hot war', filtered from the Brezhnev era, turned into 'Hybrid War' with the work of Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov and General Vladimirov in this period. So what does 'Hybrid War' mean?

The phenomenon of hybrid warfare is defined as the use of military and non-military tools and elements by states or non-state actors in a systematic and highly coordinated manner towards the targets whose sensitive points are analyzed, diplomatic, economic, technological means, media, manipulation, terrorist and criminal organizations and military measures. It can be explained as coordinated use. Some of the gatherings state that the cold war has come again, or even go further, that after the Second World War, Russia's oppressive expansionist challenge has returned. Please remember the "State Terrorism" initiatives applied against the states that do not implement repressive, intimidating and pro-Russian policies against the members of the Warsaw Pact. You remember, don't you? The capital of Czechoslovakia was occupied by Soviet and Warsaw Pact soldiers who wanted to suppress Dubcek's reforms. You know, the public demonstrations that started against the occupation in Prague were suppressed using invading military units. The President of the Soviet Union, Leonid Brezhnev, aimed to become stronger with the "export of revolution" in other countries in order not to turn the current Cold War situation into a hot war. The Brezhnev Doctrine has also been called the "Limited Sovereignty Doctrine" in the western world, as it advocates that the country's governments should be governed only by a Socialist regime that came to power with the proletarian revolution. According to the Brezhnev Doctrine, the Soviet Union, which had a complex bureaucracy network structure, placed itself in the center of the world. Russian has also been raised to the level of spoken in heaven. In summary, this doctrine; It aimed that the revolutionary movements outside the Eastern Bloc strengthen the Soviet Union and make it dominant against the capitalist structures. As the growth of revolutionary change and an anti-Western liberation struggle, the Soviet Union supported countries in the Middle East both as a protector and as an ally. However, this harsh intervention could not keep the countries of the region under the Soviet umbrella for a long time. The arms race, the invasion attempts, the costs of the attempts to influence the international system with socialist revolutions on the basis of countries, the economic crises and the voices of independence that started to rise from the Baltic were pushing the Soviet Moscow. (3)

Of course, this situation has grown into a problem. Yevgeniy Primakov started by questioning this situation, Prestorayaka and Gorbachev. The first problematic of the paragraph in which he questioned the collapse of the Soviets became clear as follows:

“Why did the Soviet Union cease to exist? It is not possible to give a single answer to this question. Some of the reasons for the collapse of the USSR were due to the imperfection of its federal structure, subjective incompetence, and the mistakes of the Soviet rulers.

So was that true? It was extremely true. The West quickly introduced this as irredentism. Irredentism; a country 

It has been used to mean that a person claims rights over the communities living in another country, which he considers himself in terms of language and ethnicity, and that this community wants to add the lands they live to within its borders. As stated above, this doctrine of Primakov emerged as the first official foreign policy doctrine of the Russian Federation at the end of 1993 under the name "Near Environment Doctrine". Relations with the West, which were seen as the priority of Russian Foreign Policy together with 'perestroika', have been replaced by an approach targeting central Eurasia since this date. In the post-Soviet period, the South Caucasus region came to the fore in international politics with issues such as ethnic conflicts, energy resources in the Caspian and oil pipeline routes. With Putin, the return to the past has accelerated, but the starting point is the Primakov Doctrine. The Stateization Steps of the Putin Doctrine of the Primakov Doctrine can be summarized as follows;

*Support Separatist Elements (Militia forces) and Paramilitary structures,

*Create a micro-nation,

*Create a microstate,

*Create De Facto state,

*Direction of Energy and Mining policies,

* State recognition,

*Create a Unitary State. (2nd)

As it is clearly seen, this situation dictates the statics of the West, firstly the mankurtized individual, the pro-society, the side-nation, and then the satellite statelet, by creating a national consciousness. In fact, the event is an oligarch strategy that directs energy and mining policies, such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, which directs monetary policies. The oligarch is the new wealthy class that gets rich from government tenders with their branding stances close to governments. In other words, it is the new bourgeois class given to the magnates who have been put on incredible fortunes thanks to privatizations. Ukraine has two winners, as can be clearly seen in the case of Ukraine. One of them is the US Defense Industry and the second is the RF Oligarchs. Let this be the subject of another article, dear readers.

Putin has another important trump card against the UN and the world public opinion. It is the following article in the Minsk Protocol, which was signed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on February 5, 2014, exactly eight years ago:

“Within 30 days at the latest, the Ukrainian Parliament shall take a decision in accordance with the article 'law giving special status' to Donetsk and Luhansk, which was adopted on September 19.

I wonder if the requirements of the Minsk Protocol had been fulfilled, at least in the above article, could Russia take the steps it took today? I think, dear readers, that the People's Republics (Narodni Respublika, People's Republic) of Luhansk and Donetz cities (Oblasts) would be prevented and there would be no despair of a nation today. Maybe I'm thinking wrong. Controlled growth by shrinking is also an intermediate target in the system of stateization.

In this case, what I would say is that, together with the elected President Zelenski, supported by George Soros, both the US and Russian oligarchs will be the winners of this game in the long run. Let's not forget that Putin's face is not Zelenski, but Biden, who has years of political experience. This war is not a simple war. Biden evaluates that Putin and Russia can make his job more and more inextricable. The game of Democrats, full of cheating and desirability, is palpable, but in the medium to long term. What can I say, tell me.

Footnotes

(1) Levent Kemal-M. Çağatay Cebe, Russian Foreign Policy Doctrines from the Prague Spring to the Present; https://actafabula.net/prag-baharindan-gunumuze-rusyanin-dis-politika-doktrinleri/Access Date 27.02.2022/

(2) My Modeling Assistant Eng. Created by Ahmet Oven.

(3) Levent Kemal-M. Çağatay Cebe, Russian Foreign Policy Doctrines from the Prague Spring to the Present, ibid.