What's going on in What's going on in Ukraine?

Developments in Ukraine have been quite active lately. NATO has previously claimed that Russia is massing on the border to invade Ukraine. Russia denied this claim and said that Russia has no plans to invade Ukraine. At the last NATO meeting in Latvia, NATO and the United States declared that if Russia attacked Ukraine, it would cost Russia dearly. While Russia is increasing its forces on the Ukrainian border, the USA continues to issue new weapons, tools and equipment to be sent to Ukraine from the newly acquired base in the Greek port of Alexandroupoli.
It seems that the Ukraine problem will continue to be one of the main topics of the geopolitical agenda in the near future.
Why is Ukraine important?
Ukraine is geopolitically the land bridge connecting Europe and Asia. Ukraine is the eastern gate of Europe. Asian tribes, who tried to conquer Europe throughout history, first captured Ukraine.
He who owned Ukraine kept Europe under control.
In history, this region (the region that passes through Ukraine from the north of the Black Sea) is called the "Gate of Tribes". The migration of tribes took place here. Throughout history, Asian powers have reached Europe by passing through Ukraine. Visigoths, Scythians, Huns, Genghis Khan, Timur…
In Turkish history, Ukraine and the surrounding regions are Deşt-i Kipchak, that is, the Kipchak desert where the Kipchak Turks passed from east to west.
After the end of the cold war, Russia withdrew from eastern Europe. The USA took this opportunity and extended the borders of Europe to Ukraine by taking the eastern European and Baltic countries into NATO. In fact, it was the sphere of influence of the USA, not Europe, which expanded to Ukraine. Since the beginning of the 2000s, the USA had planned to include Ukraine in this area and to limit Russia in the west in such a way that it would not be able to exert any more influence. In the south, the USA aimed to enter Central Asia via Afghanistan and enter between Russia and China from here, thus surrounding both Russia and China, leaving them alone and alone so that they could not be a threat to itself again.
But things didn't go as planned.
The US failed in Afghanistan. He could not enter Central Asia and divide China and Russia. China developed faster than expected and started to be a threat to the USA in the Pacific. The game that the USA was setting up in Ukraine was read correctly by Russia and Russia occupied Crimea.
Russia, which did not let the Eastern European and Baltic countries get out of hand, realized that if Ukraine were to get out of hand, it would be surrounded geopolitically. Because Ukraine was a buffer for defense between Europe and Russia.
Russia's western security was passing through Ukraine.
If this buffer (Ukraine) disappears, Russia will be directly threatened. For this reason, Russia can never geopolitically allow Ukraine to pass under US and western control. This is a life and death struggle for Russia.
Russia did not forget that Hitler came to Moscow through these regions during the Second World War. Moscow, the capital of ancient Russia, faced the risk of falling into enemy hands for the first time in nearly 1000 years, and this threat came from the west, namely Ukraine. Russia has never forgotten this lesson.
For this reason, the Belarus-Ukraine buffer zones on this route from Europe to Moscow are of vital importance for Russia. If these regions are sold out, Moscow is under threat.
Therefore, Ukraine means existence for Russia. If Ukraine falls under western control, Russia is in danger. Russia can never allow this as a geopolitical doctrine.
Russia tries all kinds of options, including the use of nuclear weapons, for this purpose. As a matter of fact, Putin has shown every time that Russia is extremely serious about its western borders.
On the other hand, things did not go well for the USA not only in the Far East and Afghanistan, but also in Europe.
As a result of the unethical defense approach of the USA and its disdainful approach to its allies, it has alienated its European allies, especially Germany, over time. Because the USA has always acted primarily in line with its own interests, seeing its allies not as companions but as pawns under its command. As a result of this approach, Germany, whose economy is growing rapidly and which needs raw materials and resources, has started to move away from the USA gradually.
Germany needs natural resources and Russia needs Germany's technology.
The USA, which was able to hold Germany and Europe in the hands of fear and pressure during the Cold War, started to lag behind with the rapid growth of China and the effective policies of Russia, and began to be unable to hold Europe, especially Germany. While Germany, which started to get rid of the US grip, approached Russia for natural resources, Russia started to approach Germany both to benefit from Germany's technology and to save the western region from US control and threat. This situation has started to bring Germany and Russia closer to each other.
Germany in terms of the USA The shift of a to the Russian side and its loss means the loss of Europe.
Because when Germany, whose economy is strong, is fed with Russia's natural resources and protected by Russian military technology, other European countries will also turn to this German-Russian union for both security and defense. In this case, the USA has no chance to stay in Europe.
In addition, the USA will not have the power to fight this union economically. This is a huge blow to the superpower of the USA. China in the West will not be able to fight the German-Russian unity in the East, and the USA may be on the verge of disintegration. Also, if these two great powers (Sino-German + Russian cooperation) come together, the situation will develop much faster for the USA. Therefore, developments in Ukraine are not only important for Ukraine.
The main reason in Ukraine is the question of who will own Europe geopolitically.
If the USA can save Ukraine from Russia's control and bring even a part of it (Western Ukraine) under the NATO umbrella, it will be based on Russia's borders by massing troops and weapons there, preventing Russia's unification with Germany and keeping Europe under its control for a while. will hold. In addition, by preventing Germany from crossing over to Russia, it will eliminate a super power formation (Germany + Russia) that will threaten it.
As long as Russia does not put Ukraine under the control of the USA, it will create a permanent buffer zone for itself, increase its cooperation with Germany, throw the USA out of Europe and keep Europe under its control. As Europe becomes dependent on Russia for natural resources, this will become a reality that is not so difficult.
Ukraine is culturally and religiously divided into two. Those to the east are Orthodox and pro-Russian, while those to the west are Catholic and pro-Western. In the current situation, the existence of Ukraine on its own is not a threat to Russia. Russia is content with the status quo as long as Ukraine does not fall under western control.
However, it is the West and the USA that are not satisfied with the situation.
Russia's rapprochement with Germany and Germany's desire to get out of the control of the USA disturbs the USA. Therefore, it is the West that fuels the disagreements and conflicts in Ukraine. Because the developments in Europe and the rapprochement between Germany and Russia are against the USA.
In this context, color revolutions are wanted to be made in Ukraine for a long time, conflicts are started and the infrastructure is created so that the West can intervene here. Russia, on the other hand, is aware of the importance of the region and intervenes very harshly. After the West's first move after the 2000s, he read the situation and invaded and annexed Crimea and intimidated the western approach. The USA and the West, which hesitated for a while as a result of this move of Russia, fueled the events again so that Europe would not get out of hand, and again put Ukraine forward as a proxy actor on their behalf. In this context, the USA and the west continue to support Ukraine and fuel the events.
From the point of view of the USA, the situation is quite difficult. In order to support Ukraine, it is not possible for the US to find many allies or provide worldwide support as in Afghanistan. The fact that Russia and China are permanent members of the UN Security Council, the region is very close to Europe, some European states do not look very warmly towards the USA, the state of the European economy, Germany's relations with Russia are widely spread among the USA and China. It does not make NATO support and war possible in Ukraine.
On the other hand, the fact that the USA has to accumulate power against China in the far east also prevents the USA from sending large numbers of forces to this region. For this reason, the USA is aiming to detach the west of Ukraine from Russia with a proxy war in Ukraine and with the support of the allies.
In fact, although the conflicts are in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, the aim of the USA is not to ensure the territorial integrity of Ukraine or to regain Crimea to Ukraine. The aim of the USA is to separate the western Ukraine from Russia and to bring it under the umbrella and control of NATO, even though the eastern region of Ukraine will pass under the control of Russia as a result of a conflict. Thus, the USA will achieve its goal and keep Europe in its hands, and will prevent the unification of Germany and Russia.
The main goal for Russia is to prevent the whole of Ukraine from falling under the control of the West and the USA, and to keep the whole of Ukraine as a buffer.
Even if Russia seizes the Donetsk region and holds the Crimea, giving a part of Ukraine to the west would be a defeat for Russia. For this reason, Russia will not unconditionally allow the West and the USA to settle in any part of Ukraine. At the expense of occupying all of Ukraine if necessary.
In this case, things are not easy for Russia either. Because Ukraine is a very big country and it is very burdensome for Russia, both politically and economically, to seize this whole country at any cost.
That's why Russia needs allies too. Moreover, no matter what. Russia in the name of existence in this war will not hesitate to show groundbreaking approaches to gain allies (It is useful to remember Turkey's position and its importance for Russia in this conjuncture.)
It should not be forgotten that when a war breaks out in the region, the war will not remain only in the Donetsk region and that Russia will take steps to invade all of Ukraine at any cost. It is obvious that such a situation will put the whole world into an economic and political crisis.
For this reason, I consider that the conflicts in Ukraine will continue, will increase from time to time, and that the West will aim to wear out Russia over time by entering a long-term attrition war instead of a decisive war, and this will achieve its goal.
When we evaluate the current strategy of the USA, the USA has to use its power economically.
In parallel with the developing situation in the Pacific, the USA wants to be deployed on certain lines in the north and south instead of separating forces for Europe and Africa by reducing its forces in Europe and Africa.
Poland and Baltic countries in the north and Greece-Aegean Sea in the south want to control the Africa-Europe-North Ice Sea line as a line from north to south.
In this context, Greece is planned as a base and forward base for the southern region. Africa and the Mediterranean will be taken under control through Greece, and central Europe and Ukraine will be intervened from Alexandroupolis and northern Aegean. Alexandroupoli and the regions in the north of Greece will serve as both a base and a logistical and operational support and forward base.
Undoubtedly, the Montreux agreement played an important role in the USA's choice of Greece. Turkey's loyalty to Montreux caused the USA not to dare to pierce Montreux. In this case, a deployment via Greece was preferred to bypass Montreux and reach the Black Sea and Ukraine by land.
However, I consider that this deployment had an impact on his emotional thoughts of excluding Turkey and taking Greece under the wing of the USA, with the guidance of the Greek and Armenian lobbies.
However, in my opinion, this deployment is geopolitically strategically flawed.
Ukraine and Central Europe are 2-3000 km from Greece. This means a distance of at least 3-4 days in terms of time. This is a very long time for the operation. When you provide support against a superpower like Russia 3-4 days behind, the operation may already be over. Russia may have already achieved its goals by this time.
On the other hand, it is not possible for such an intense support to come to Ukraine from the Northern line because of Belarus. Therefore, the USA will have to support a war in Ukraine from the south and the Aegean Sea. The Black Sea, on the other hand, will be left to Russia's control and it will be helpless against Russia's attack on Ukraine over the Black Sea. In the Aegean Sea, if there is an obstruction by Russia during the war, according to this strategy, the US support will be very limited in Ukraine.
Ukraine will be left alone and left to its fate.
In this case, it is clearly seen that the US strategy and the Greek deployment will bring defeat, not victory, to the USA.
The biggest mistake of the US strategy is to exclude Turkey and to choose Greece as the speaking place.
In a situation where Turkey is active, direct support can be provided to Ukraine by sea on the basis of hours, not days. The Black Sea will not be left to Russia, the southern flank of Ukraine will be secured.
It should not be forgotten that the Turks, who heroically defended Çanakkale during the First World War, prevented the sending of support to Russia, which led to the overthrow of the Russian tsarism and the very critical outcome of Russia's withdrawal from the war.
When the Black Sea road is closed to a state with a coast to the Black Sea, it is not possible for that state to survive. This was Russia in the first world war in the past, and today it will be Ukraine.
For this reason, the US strategy determined by the approach of 40 years ago, by the emotional approach of the Greek and Armenian supporters and trying to exclude Turkey, is far from reality and is a strategy that predicts defeat rather than success. It's a geopolitical mistake.
Any solution that excludes Turkey in the region cannot be successful.
If Alfred Thayer Mayan, the famous US strategist and architect of the maritime domination theory, had seen the current US strategy that ignores the seas, he would probably have fired all the architects of this strategy and apologized to Turkey.
THE IMPORTANCE OF CONFLICT IN UKRAINE FOR TURKEY
Turkey is the pivot actor for Ukraine. It gains success in this region that takes Turkey by its side. Whoever opposes him loses.
For Russia, the Black Sea is vitally important. In this war, the Black Sea will determine the outcome of the war. In this context, Russia  has to maintain and develop the positive relations it maintains with Turkey. Because losing Turkey means losing Ukraine. The loss of Ukraine puts Moscow in danger for Russia. is to go under.
Russia should continue positive activities in order to keep Turkey on its side. Recognition of the TRNC when necessary, openly opposing the Greek theses in the Aegean, developing Turkish-Russian cooperation in the entire region from the Aegean to Central Asia, and keeping Turkey on the side of Russia will also provide vital benefits for Russia.
In terms of the USA, Turkey is not a country that can be ignored. The USA should give up emotional and unrealistic decisions as soon as possible and try to take Turkey on its side. Neither Greece nor any other country is Turkey and it cannot replace Turkey.
The USA's disregard for Turkey will lose Ukraine first and then Europe.
Turkey, on the other hand, is on the side of peace and friendship due to its special ties with Ukraine, Russia and the countries of the region. For this reason, it should play a leading and mediator role in the peaceful resolution of problems.
As long as the Ukraine problem continues, Turkey's importance and role will continue to increase.
Both the region and peace need Turkey.