Who Will Stop Putin from Bullying?

The nightmare scenario, based on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, continues to occupy the world agenda for the last six months. Putin's Russia has presented a real challenge to the US-led world order. The West has not yet awakened. It is unclear when he will wake up.

An American president who is uncertain where he wants to go, a NATO that has lost its integrity between Europe and the USA, and an authoritarian Russian leader determined to restore Russian hegemony have placed Ukraine at the center of a perfect storm today.

From the middle of 2021, Putin began to claim that Ukraine is a part of Russia. Complementing this claim, he took a stance that he was determined to take "his own land" by force if necessary.

Putin's; His attitude, which puts Ukraine, a sovereign nation, at the tip of the barrel, and attempts an open invasion, is not only directed towards Ukraine. Putin, who seems to have made the claim of "historical lands" a Russian national target, may turn to occupy other historical Russian lands if he cannot be stopped in Ukraine. He can find this courage in himself.

Putin, who did not see the necessary backlash from the Western world in Georgia in 2008, was encouraged and annexed Crimea in 2014 with an excuse. Today, Moscow, which has amassed 30 000 soldiers in Belarus, acts with the confidence of posing a threat to the Baltic States and Poland tomorrow, if not today. However, prior to this, the border of Finland, which was a part of the Russian Tsardom until 1918, indicates that Russia may again mass its troops, similar to the one in 1939. This shows that Finland, which decided to immediately buy 64 F-35 fighter jets from the USA during the Ukraine Crisis, began to read the big picture and the possible impending danger. On the other hand, it is understood that the US arms industry makes good use of this opportunity. The rest of the former Eastern Bloc states, which looked at these possible developments, also entered into an anxious wait. A list created in this direction; According to the insatiable Putin's ambition, it may go on and on. The only power that can keep this list short is the Western world, which, for various reasons, is currently taking a disorganized and powerless stance. Indeed, a West, which is uncertain when it will wake up, is closer to abandoning Ukraine, which has hoped for itself, for now. Just as a Western world repeating its inaction in South Ossetia in 2008 and in Crimea in 2014; Against Russia, he is content to watch Donbas from a point far from being the hope of the countries in the region.

Putin's statements that the territory of Ukraine is part of Russia is misleading. This approach, which is based on old imperial discourses, has no equivalent and meaning in the modern world. Undoubtedly, Russia has increased its influence with Putin, but this country; It is out of the question for the USA and China to be a super power next to it. Only the defense industry and a power structure based on huge territories are no longer enough to take Moscow to the super league. Especially the declining population and the increasing rate of the non-Orthodox population present a “heterogeneous and fragile demographic” for Putin. From here, it becomes almost impossible for Russia to even protect its existing lands. After the Crimea, the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk now serve a function that will serve to meet the iron, coal and some key skills needed by the Russian industry, but also to increase the enemies of the Russians. While Putin may be seen as a great leader today, who took steps that could accelerate the Russian collapse in the medium term, history may write itself very differently.

Despite everything, as Moscow Putin stated in his speech after his decision to recognize Donetsk and Luhansk; He set his mind to seize the whole of Modern Ukraine, which he said, "we built that place, it is ours". Putin; “The Minsk agreement is no longer valid. Ukraine should give up its bid for NATO membership. The annexation of Crimea should be recognized (meanwhile, the separatist regions, the new formations Donetsk and Luhansk should also be recognized). “The disarmament and demilitarization of Ukraine” should follow.

Putin, who has made it very clear that the resurrection of the Russian empire is the national goal of the Russian Federation, says that for some reason they have no such intentions. On the other hand, Putin said, "We have no eyes on anyone's land"; It presumably considers regions and countries such as Chechnya, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea, Belarus, partly Moldova and more recently Donetsk and Luhansk as its territory. In the second half of the 18th century, these two separatist regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, which were connected to Russian lands during the Catherine period, are now presented to the world as if they were a part of Russia's homeland. Russia, whose past is slightly older than the USA, does not neglect to send "just war" signals to the world through historical readings.

Although its history is not a very important country, its military power is still considerable. The ambition of proving that Russia, which has a high rank, is indeed a superpower that should not be ignored in all its aspects continues. The Russian leader is trying to reach his goals and go down in history with a controlled crisis policy. Putin, who blamed even Lenin for the sake of his endless ambitions and took Stalin as an example; Recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk should be seen as part of this crisis policy. It has not yet used its 130,000-150,000 soldiers to invade Ukrainian lands. The army stands still. Presumably, such a large army was not kept on alert 24/7 to 'recognize' these two regions that have been under de facto Russian control since 2014?

Apparently, Moscow; It aims to overthrow the current Kiev Government, to replace it with a puppet government, and then to disarm Ukraine. Without these in the short term, Putin will not stop!

Putin's ultimate goal can be summarized as returning the military situation in Europe to the pre-1989 Soviet era and dictating this to the West with his crisis policies. Putin; It is showing a clear determination to show that Russia is an important third pole alongside the US and China, and this is seen as a reasonable and understandable path for Moscow.

In the eyes of those who are disturbed by the global hegemony of the USA, which became more evident after 1990, Putin seems like a savior. Against the imperialist USA, the imperial Putin Russia is considered a more reasonable power. Nobody wants to see Georgia and Ukraine, who are oppressed in between.

Meanwhile, Moscow wants to use the Beijing-Washington tension to its advantage. Contrary to its old policy, China, which does not want to be alone in the face of the USA, considers it necessary to display an attitude that finds Russia justified nowadays, in terms of its own rights and interests. China, which is not yet ready to recognize the annexation of South Ossetia, Abkhazia and the Crimean peninsula by the Russians, has given strong signals that it is willing to take steps to keep the Russian-Chinese axis intact in the global perspective.

Russian-Chinese totalitarian/authoritarian model; It may consider it necessary for the near term to take a common stance against the liberal/democratic model of the West led by the USA. Although Shanghai cooperation has not offered a NATO-like alternative to date, if the Russian-Chinese axis can be truly built, Iran may definitely want to join this alternative model. However, for the sake of ending the current tension in Eastern Europe, the Washington-Moscow line could develop a "win-win" model. Biden, who has the possibility of responding to Putin's requests with a "soft" yes, while partially backing down in Eastern Europe in order to protect his country's high interests, can gain a gain that will strengthen his hand against Xi Jinping and start to draw a new road map against this country. .

However, the existence of scenarios that are likely to prolong and see the axis of advance of the Russian troops up to the Dnieper river as possible may drag Turkey into a very delicate stalemate during and after this crisis. Turkey, which has already achieved a remarkable momentum in defense diplomacy and commercial relations with Ukraine; It continues to develop cooperation in key technologies such as nuclear power plants, as well as natural gas trade with Russia, which amounts to dependency. The possibilities that the two countries may also produce S-400 and warplanes jointly are also on the agenda from time to time. Possible advances in technology transfer in the field of defense industry technologies, which the Allied Western World is not willing to give, make both Ankara-Moscow and Ankara-Kiev lines important.

Turkey; Especially with the 1964 Johnson letter, it is a country that has closely observed that the Western world should not trust its ambivalent policies. Those who ruled Turkey at that time, especially the late İsmet İnönü, learned bitterly that one cannot rely on America, in fact, no imperial power can be counted on. Turkey, which has this experience and awareness; he did not break away from the West with a conscious choice, but he found it necessary to draw the national line that would enable him to stand on his own feet when necessary, even if the West was not behind him. Allied USA's embargoes after the Cyprus operations, anti-Turkey cooperation with the Armenian diaspora, numerous incidents that used Turkish lands, including Incirlik, for their own benefit, the 2003 sack incident, encouraging the establishment of so-called Kurdistan, paving the way for the construction of the Kurdish corridor, F- 35 program to remove Turkey, to put into effect CAATSA sanctions, etc. The steps it has taken to force Turkey have constantly shown the Turkish public that Ankara's multi-faceted and multilateral foreign policy, which has a history of more than half a century, is justified.

Failed to establish a healthy cooperation with the West on a platform as Turkey desired. There could be a myriad of reasons. Numerous justifications for the current American 'hostility' in Turkey have been engraved in the minds of the Turkish people. However, at this point, having a Turkish perspective looking at the outside world through the glasses of anti-Americanism and interpreting events with this lens may mean that we close our eyes to developments that harm Turkey, and we are all wrong. As we closely observe today, the Russian occupation, which shows that they aspire to the former Soviet remnant, is against Turkey. It is unlikely that a situation in favor of Turkey will develop with Russian expansionism, and it is not on the horizon.

Some Turkish intellectuals said, "70% of Crimea is Slavic, it is normal for Putin to add this peninsula to his lands!" His statements are not true, they are objectionable. This logic cannot be tolerated. If we accept this approach as correct, any country with power can seize the other's land. Moreover, roughly 70% of Cyprus is Greek. In this case, should we give Cyprus to the Greeks?

Turkey's official discourse, based on common sense, is based on the recognition that Crimea is a Ukrainian territory, and the Turkish foreign ministry continues to emphasize that the territorial integrity of this country should be preserved. A Moscow that has started to spread again is an imminent danger for Ankara. It acts as a "stirrer" destabilizing our region. All of our history readings clearly and clearly tell us the love of the Russians for the Black Sea. With the Vienna Harmony of 1815, Anatolian lands cannot be used again for the balance and interest policies of the five great states (England, Prussia, Russia, Austria and later France), which gave the Ottoman lands to the Russian and partially Austrian empires as a "zone of influence". No one can guarantee that the claws of an expansionist and aggressive Bear will not crush us tomorrow. While the white-headed Eagle always causes us trouble, it can be misleading to think of the Bear as a friend.

If Moscow, which takes Crimea, also takes Odessa tomorrow, it will achieve a dominant position in the Black Sea trade. Except for Russia, Turkey will have almost no other interlocutor. The geopolitical reality tells Ankara loudly that the more countries bordering the Black Sea, the better it will be for Turkey.

It seems that the weak sanctions basket of the Western world will undoubtedly not be enough to stop the Russians. Russia has revealed its military cards at the table. As long as an American military presence is not deployed on the field, there is no real "sanction" that can stop the Russians. It seems that the United States has no intention of sending its soldiers to die for the Ukrainians. The USA, which raised the whole world for Korea in 1950, only "speaks" for Ukraine today. Being aware of this, Putin continues to shape the operation field according to his own game plan as he wishes. Moreover, Russia, which provides 60% of Germany's energy and meets 40% of the energy needed by Europe in general; it does not even consider it necessary to activate the energy card yet.

It seems that Russia will maintain its determined stance to continue its aggressive and expansionist moves until Europe wakes up. It seems that Putin, who is currently trying to move forward on the axis of progress with false flag operations, has a road map in front of him. The Russians continue on their way while the West sleeps. Hitler invaded Poland, Europe woke up and World War II. World War II has begun. Presumably, the USA and the Western world are waiting for the Russian invasion of Poland.