Why Did Ukraine Lose Crimea in 2014?

Ukraine, which Russia annexed by eliminating the Crimean Khanate in 1783; After the 1917 Revolution, it wanted to declare its independence. However, it was occupied by the USSR in 1920 and became a part of the Soviet Union. Integrating with the Soviets politically, socially and economically, Ukraine did not try to acquire a national identity until 1989 and consented to the Soviet identity. With the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine also declared its independence in 1991.

Ukraine's administrative style consists of 24 regions (oblast), an autonomous republic (Crimea) and two regional cities (Kiev and Sevastopol). In the country governed by the semi-presidential system, the president is elected by the people for a 5-year term, while the prime minister receives approval from the parliament after being appointed by the president. The legislative body is the parliament, called the "Verkhovna Rada". Almost all Ukrainians are Slavs. In the western part of Ukraine, mainly Catholics live on the Galician side. Eastern and Southern regions are dominated by the Orthodox population. Ukraine; It risks splitting between the pro-Russian eastern region and the pro-independence western region. Kiev introduced the centralized state system to prevent this.

Ukraine Crisis

Ukraine; With its strategic location between Europe and Russia, it is one of the key countries that contributes to the stability of the Black Sea Region and especially to Russia's security against the West. In the post-independence period, Ukraine, on the one hand, tried to get closer with the West, with the effect of economic collapse and security concerns, on the other hand, it tried to maintain balanced relations with Russia. In this context, by declaring that he would follow an impartial policy, he gave up being a nuclear power of his own accord and focused his attention on improving its economy and solving its problems with Russia.

Ukrainian politics has been the scene of a struggle between pro-Western independence and pro-Russian pragmatist axes. Leonid Kravçuk, a former communist elite, who presided between 1991-94, initially moved on the axis of independence, then switched to a pragmatist structure by establishing an authoritarian government. Leonid Kuchma, who was elected instead, remained in the pragmatist line. Kuchma, with its large and fertile lands, rich mineral and coal resources, strong industrial infrastructure inherited from the USSR, and trained workforce, could not fully put the Ukrainian economy, which has a very high potential, on track.

During this period, Ukraine wanted to establish its own navy in Sevastopol. This situation disturbed Russia. For this reason, Russia has started to support separatist groups who want autonomy in Crimea. Afterwards, Ukraine and Russia made an agreement between them and made the Black Sea Navy two-headed. In 1997, a new agreement was made between the two countries, and the navy and military bases were separated.

It was declared that the pragmatist Viktor Yanukovych won the Presidential election on 21 November 2004. However, Viktor Yushchenko, who used the color orange in the elections, claimed that the elections were rigged in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Yushchenko started protest demonstrations in Kiev's Independence Square. Thereupon, it was decided to renew the elections, and a re-election was held on 26 December 2004. Yushchenko became the President of this election. Thus, the American-backed Orange Revolution succeeded.

The reforms carried out by Yushchenko, with the effect of financial aid from the USA, brought about a partial improvement in the economy. Ukraine, which started to follow a policy close to the West, was almost wanted to be punished by Russia in 2006. As a result of Russia's cut off the natural gas to Ukraine, albeit for a short time, the Ukrainian economy was adversely affected, and the crises in the domestic political structure worsened the situation. The economic crisis that shook the whole world in 2008 and Russia's hikes in natural gas in 2009 put the Ukrainian economy into a difficult situation.

Meanwhile, the conflict between the supporters of independence and pragmatist policy, which started with the Orange Revolution, remained up-to-date. Having been the prime minister since 2006 and Yanukovych won the 2010 elections, Ukraine started to follow a pro-Moscow policy. Thereupon, Russia made an improvement in the price of natural gas in favor of Ukraine, Ukraine's debts were restructured, thus reviving the economic life, and a sustainable political environment was achieved in Ukraine until November 2013.

During this whole process, while maintaining close relations with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries in the political, economic and military fields, important steps were taken for membership in the European Union (EU) and NATO, and it became a member of NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP) program. Despite this, efforts to achieve EU and NATO membership (to secure themselves against Russia at the first opportunity) continued.

Yanukovych's announcement that he will not attend the EU Summit to be held in Lithuania on 28-29 November 2013, that he will not sign the Association and Broader Trade Agreement with the EU under the EU's Eastern Partnership Project (DOP), and instead, the Russian-led The decision to start membership negotiations with the Eurasian Economic Union led to a great reaction in the pro-EU segment in Ukraine and the start of protests in Kiev.

Initially, only the reactions to the lack of signing of the Association Agreement with the EU gradually turned to the government, focusing on corruption, oppression and human rights violations. As the events escalated, Yanukovych had to leave the country on February 23, 2014, and Arseni Yatsenyuk was replaced on February 27, 2014. Thus, while the West achieved what it wanted, Russia lost in the square.

The new Prime Minister immediately went to the USA. From there he obtained assurances in the field of financial and security. While Russia questioned the legitimacy of the Ukrainian interim government, finding it illegal; The USA and the EU have declared that they support the interim government. Thus, the Ukraine crisis has moved beyond internal borders to a regional and global dimension.

Russia, who argues that the aim of the Western states is to fill Russia's environment with pro-Western regimes and to reduce the influence of Russia in the region by expanding the influence of NATO; He saw the events in Ukraine as a result of Western countries' meddling in Ukraine's internal affairs and emphasized that Yanukovych was overthrown by Western-backed groups.

As a result of the decisions of the Yatsenyuk government, such as the removal of Russian as an official language, pro-Russian demonstrations broke out in Crimea, where the Russian population is concentrated, and soon spread to the eastern cities of Ukraine, where the Russian population is dense. Meanwhile, Russia, which did not see the new Ukrainian government as legitimate, took its special forces to Crimea with an unexpected move and occupied the peninsula. In this context, the Crimean parliament, which was occupied by pro-Russian people on February 27, decided to hold a referendum. In the referendum held on March 16, 2014, the voters answered "yes" to the annexation of Crimea to Russia with a majority of 95.5%. As a result, the Crimean parliament announced its decision to join Russia, and Russia announced that it annexed Crimea. The result of joining Russia has not been recognized by any international actor except Russia. On the other hand, the European Union and the USA declared the referendum illegal and stated that the peninsula belongs to Ukraine according to international law.

While the clashes between the central government forces and the pro-Russian supporters in eastern Ukraine continued from time to time, the pro-Western Petro Poroshenko won the elections held in May 2014. Poroshenko was an oligarch who materially supported the Maidan demonstrations. Putin did not see Poroshenko as his interlocutor and held talks with the US and European leaders to resolve the crisis.

Despite the deep differences between the parties, a compromise was reached with the Minsk Agreement on 5 and 19 September 2014 in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, by the representatives of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the Tripartite Contact Group consisting of Russia and Ukraine, and the representatives of Donetsk and Luhansk. However, this was a fragile agreement that left Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the hands of pro-Russians, in Poroshenko's words. The line drawn with the Minsk Protocol was a sign that the rebels were, in a sense, legally recognized by Kiev. On the other hand, the main reason for Kiev's pressure on Donbas was to repel the separatists in parallel with the negotiation process, to take the region under its control and to bring the Crimea issue to the bargaining table, which Russia never approached. At that time, Moscow gave the appearance that it could consent to Donetsk and Luhansk to remain within the borders of Ukraine if Donetsk and Luhansk were given a certain amount of autonomy and the free use of the Russian language was allowed. However, looking at the expectations of all parties involved in the crisis, it has been seen that peace and stability in Ukraine cannot be easily achieved in the short run from the perspective of current balances.

As a matter of fact, even today, when 2021 is about to end, the Ukraine-Russia border tension continues to occupy the world agenda. The solution is Biden's; It seems possible in the first quarter of 2022, depending on the extent to which Putin will respond to his wishes in the shadow of the Russian military forces.