Why Does A Quarter of the World's Population Suffer from Thirst

According to the European Environment Agency, water stress occurs when "the demand for water exceeds the supply of water in a given period of time". The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) defines water stress as the ratio of freshwater consumption to available renewable freshwater resources.

New data published in the World Resources Institute's (WRI) Water Risk Atlas reveals that 25 countries, hosting a quarter of the global population and using all available water resources, face extremely high water stress every year. In addition, at least 50 per cent of the world's population - about 4 billion people - live under high water stress conditions for at least one month of the year.

Factors such as population growth, economic development efforts and climate change cause water shortages in countries that do not improve their water management. 

Here, let's take a look at the reasons that increase water stress and which countries and regions are more affected by it 

Causes of global water stress 

The world's demand for water exceeds the amount of fresh water available in some regions. Globally, water demand has more than doubled since 1960. This increasing water demand is generally a result of the growing population and the increase in agricultural irrigation, animal husbandry, energy production and industrial production. Meanwhile, lack of investment in water infrastructure, improper and inefficient water use or increased variability due to climate change also adversely affect existing water resources. 

Water stress is measured by the ratio between water demand and renewable water supply. The smaller the difference between supply and demand, the closer the region is to water shortage. A country that uses at least 80 per cent of its available water is defined as a country facing "very severe water stress". If a country uses 40% of its water resources, it is considered to be under "high water stress" (2). 

Which countries face the most severe water stress?

Data show that 25 countries are exposed to extremely severe water stress every year. These countries use more than 80 per cent of renewable water resources for irrigation, livestock, industry and urban and domestic needs. Even a short drought would jeopardise their water security and water shortages could be imposed. This scenario is known to be realised in many countries such as the UK, India, Iran, Mexico and South Africa (2).

According to these criteria, the five most stressed countries are Bahrain, Cyprus, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman and Qatar (2). Water stress in these countries is mostly caused by the physical inadequacy of water resources in meeting domestic-urban, agricultural and industrial water use demands. For this reason, many of these countries use seawater desalination.

The most water stressed regions of the world are the Middle East and North Africa, where 83 per cent of the population is exposed to extremely high water stress, and South Asia, where 74 per cent of the population is exposed to water stress.

Worse may yet be yet to come in dehydration

By 2050, it is estimated that 1 billion people will be forced to live in conditions of higher water stress, despite the world's efforts to limit global temperature.

Global water demand is projected to increase by 20 to 25 per cent by 2050, while the number of river basins facing high year-to-year variability or less predictable water supplies is expected to increase by 19 per cent (2). For the Middle East and North Africa, this means that the entire population of these countries will live with extremely high water stress by 2050. This will not only be a problem for consumers and water-using industries, but also for political stability. As water tensions increase, so will anti-government protests, as in Iran and Iraq.

Stable water demand in developed countries explodes in Africa

By 2050, the biggest change in water demand will take place in sub-Saharan Africa. Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa are not currently under extreme water stress.  Water demand is growing faster in this region than in other parts of the world. By 2050, water demand in sub-Saharan Africa (163 per cent) is expected to increase 4 times more than in Latin America, the second highest region, where a 43 per cent increase in water demand is expected (2).

This expected increase, mainly in irrigation and potable water use, could stimulate this growth in Africa, which is projected to be the fastest growing economic region in the world. However, it is also estimated that inefficient water use and faulty water management could reduce the region's GDP by 6 per cent (2).

Meanwhile, water demand in the developed countries of North America and Europe has increased. However, investments in water use efficiency have helped to reduce the amount of water used in these countries, 

Virtual water trade, which is hidden in international trade, is another issue that triggers water stress. This trade, especially from low and middle income countries to developed countries, contributes to the increase of water stress in low and middle income countries.

Water stress affects economies and agricultural production

Increasing water stress threatens the economic growth of countries and the world's food security. According to data from the World Resources Institute (WRI), 31 per cent of global GDP - $70 trillion ($15 trillion in 2010 (24 per cent of global GDP) - will be under high water stress by 2050. The GDP of just 4 countries - India, Mexico, Egypt and Turkey - accounts for more than half of the total GDP of countries that will be exposed to this impact (2).

According to the Global Adaptation Commission, failure to implement better water management policies will lead to a 7 to 12 per cent reduction in GDPs in India, China and Central Asia and a 6 per cent reduction in most of Africa by 2050 (2).

Global food security is also at risk due to water stress. Sixty per cent of the world's irrigated agriculture faces extremely high water stress, especially in the production of sugarcane, wheat, rice and maize. To feed a population of 10 billion people, the world will need to produce 56 per cent more food crops by 2050 than in 2010. This is difficult to realise while dealing with increasing water stress and climate-related disasters such as droughts and floods (2). 

Consequences of Water Scarcity

There are many data and estimates on the consequences of water scarcity in the world. Some of these are listed below (3).

Global food security is threatened by water scarcity. Water scarcity also jeopardises the natural environment, which is essential to ensure access to food for millions of hungry people in many parts of the world and to reduce the cost of nutritious food. Approximately two-thirds of all water withdrawals worldwide are used for agriculture, 16 per cent by municipalities for housing consumption and water-related urban services, and 12 per cent for industrial production (4). The situation may be more dire in the future. According to the World Bank, by 2050, water withdrawals in agriculture will need to increase by 55 per cent compared to today in order to meet the food needs of the growing world population.

Water scarcity also worsens health and hygiene conditions. Access to safe drinking water is essential for health and hygiene. Poor quality or contaminated water can cause a range of waterborne diseases and lead to malnutrition, chronic diseases and sometimes death. Important waterborne diseases include diarrhoeal diseases, cholera, typhoid, hepatitis A, hepatitis E and polio [5].

Table 1: Countries experiencing the most water stress in the world [2]

The lack of clean water and wastewater treatment systems is a problem for 2.4 billion people in the world. 785 million people in the world do not have access to safe clean water. One million children under the age of five die every year due to lack of access to adequate water and sanitation. According to the World Health Organisation, diarrhoeal diseases alone account for an estimated 3.6 percent of the global burden of disease and cause 1.5 million deaths annually [5]. Diarrhoea is the third leading cause of death in children [7]. About 58 per cent of such deaths occur in low- and lower middle-income countries.

In these countries, where safe water supply is lacking and wastewater management is limited, 842,000 people, including 361,000 children under the age of five, die every year [7].

Water scarcity is an obstacle to human development and sustainable development. Reduced access to water prolongs the time spent on water supply and increases inefficiency. For example, women around the world spend a total of 200 million hours a day transporting water to their homes, which distracts them from economic activities and reduces the time they can devote to their families. Lack of access to water costs the world $260 billion in economic losses each year. Even preventing water-related deaths would contribute 18.5 billion dollars to the world economy [7].

Water scarcity causes irreparable damage to the environment. For example, Lake Aral, which was once one of the world's largest fresh water resources, has become very small, polluted and its water has become undrinkable due to excessive water consumption [9]. Drainage works and water withdrawals, especially for agricultural purposes, cause the drying and destruction of marshes and wetlands, which have a great diversity of living organisms.

The acceleration of mass migrations due to water scarcity is likely to increase gradually. By 2030, 700 million people worldwide could be displaced due to intense water scarcity [8].

Better water management is needed for a water secure future 

Understanding the state of the world's water supply and demand is good, but water stress does not necessarily lead to a water crisis. Places like Singapore and the US city of Las Vegas, for example, are proving that societies can thrive even under conditions of water stress, using techniques such as drought-tolerant crops, desalination and reclaimed water reuse.

Research from the World Resources Institute (WRI) shows that solving global water challenges will cost the world about 1 per cent of GDP, or 29 cents per capita, every day from 2015 to 2030 (3). This shows that solutions to water problems can be found if there is political will and financial support.

Conclusion and Recommendations 

Some measures to improve water management and reduce water stress are presented below.

- Countries can improve water governance, promote water efficiency in agriculture, adopt integrated water resources management and improve water infrastructure through nature-based solutions and green infrastructure. Protecting and enhancing wetlands, mangroves and forests has the added benefit of improving water quality, building resilience to droughts and floods, and reducing water treatment costs. 

- International development banks and other lending institutions can develop strategic debt relief programmes, such as debt swaps for nature-based solutions. These nature-based solutions facilitate climate change adaptation in developing countries that cannot afford the cost of improved water management  

- In countries experiencing water stress, energy sources that do not require water, such as solar and wind, should be prioritised.

- Cities should develop action plans for flexible urban water management and increase the reuse of treated wastewater.

- Farmers should switch to drought-resistant crops with low water requirements and use modern irrigation methods with high efficiency.

- Companies should set water use targets to reuse water online in industrial production.

Governments, as well as civil society, universities and businesses, should work together on water issues and projects to create a secure future for all.

References

[1 Willem Hofste, Rutger; Reig, Paul; Schleifer, Leah; (2019), “17 Countries, Home to One-Quarter of the World’s Population, Face Extremely High Water Stress”, World Resources Institute, (6 Ağustos 2019), https:// www.wri.org/insights/17-countries-home-one-quarter-worlds-population-face-extremely-high-water-stress 

[2] Samantha Kuzma, Liz Saccoccia and Marlena Chertock “25 Countries, Housing One-quarter of the Population, Face Extremely High Water Stress” August 16, 2023, https://www.wri.org/insights/highest-water-stressed-countries?utm_campaign=wridigest&utm_source=wridigest-2023-08-16&utm_medium=email

[3] Dünyada Su Kıtlığı I: Sürdürülebilirlik ve İklim Değişikliği Bağlamında Dünyadaki Mevcut Durum ARAŞTIRMA RAPORU KASIM 2021.  STM ThinkTech Teknolojik Düşünce Merkezi.

[4] United Nations Water, (2021), “Summary Progress Update 2021: SDG 6 — water and sanitation for all”, (24 Şubat 2021), https://www.unwater.org/publications/summary-progress-update-2021-sdg-6-water-and-sanitation-for-all/. (Erişim Tarihi: 14 Ekim 2021)

[5] World Health Organization, (2019), “Drinking-water”, https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/drinkingwater

[6] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, (2020), “The State of Food and Agriculture”, http://www.fao.org/3/cb1447en/cb1447en.pdf

[7] Water.org, “The Water Crisis”, https://water.org/our-impact/water-crisis/

[8] contrattoacqua.it, (2019), “Water for All”, https://contrattoacqua.it/public/upload/1/2/tab_elms_docs/1551267970wwd2019_factsheet_.pdf 

[9] WWF, “WATER SCARCITY”, http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/water-scarcity

[10] Gökçe, N. (2022). Küresel Su Stresi ve Ölçüm Yöntemleri. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 7 (1) , 189-208 . DOI: 10.25229/beta.1117054