Will the Russians Occupy Ukraine?

When we look at it from a historical perspective, the region today called the "West" and dominated by the Atlantic Basin countries has been a "special" world where the Russians have always been left out. Although the Russians are a Christian nation like other European countries, they have never been seen as a natural part of Europe. A situation similar to the fact that the Ottomans were excluded from the European order even when they had almost 1/3 of Europe, is partially valid for the Russians today.

Russian society has a more nationalistic and traditionalist understanding of religion compared to other European countries. The biggest factor in this was the Russian Orthodox Church. The Orthodox Church, which developed away from the influence of the Papacy; Over time, he built his own unique Russian Vatican system in the vast Russian territory. As a matter of fact, the church, which has an influential place in the Russian state structure that started to develop from the 15th century, established its own legal ground on the Slavic peoples and pioneered the spread of the Orthodox religion understanding to other parts of the world. This situation has formed the basis of the efforts of the Russian Orthodox Church to ensure that the "Papal institution" is accepted all over the world. Religion was the primary factor in the formation of an expansionist Russian policy, which served to enhance the prestige of the Orthodox sect.

Turks who entered Europe before the Russians; They blocked the westward expansion of the Russians and thus prevented the Slavic invasion on this continent for centuries. Taking the Balkan countries under Turkish domination, in the light of historical facts, served to protect this region from Germanic and Slavic invasions. At the same time, Turkish domination in this part of Europe; It also gave the nations the right to self-government, develop their cultures freely, use their national languages, and perform their religious rites without encountering any obstacles. As a result, these nations, which took the wind of nationalism that developed after the French Revolution in 1789, had an environment that would make their freedom and independence movements successful thanks to the Ottomans. The tolerant regional policy of the Ottomans, ironically, also led to the end of its own existence in this region.

Russians; They have always seen Ottoman domination in the European continent as an obstacle to their expansionist ambitions. In our opinion, the presence of the Turks in Europe has always been a problem for the greatest rulers that the Russian state has raised, Petro, Katerina, Stalin, and today Russia, which is among the great powers on the world stage and continues to take over. In particular, the westernization policy initiated during the reign of Peter the Great (1672-1725) was the biggest factor in Russia's becoming a great power. Peter the Mad, who established a great Russian navy; Since the 18th century, it has paved the way for the Russians' desire to settle on the Black Sea coast, expand, and dominate almost all Turkish lands, including the straits.
Thus, the Russians, who opened up new horizons, followed a Black Sea and Balkan policy based on Pan-Slavism and Orthodox Christianity, and were in constant competition against the Ottoman Empire in these regions for the protection of Orthodox and Slavs. Russia; To this end, he had to fight the Ottoman Empire 12 times in total. As a result, when the Ottoman Empire's presence in Europe came to an end in 1918, mostly Russian domination was established in the European lands left by the Turks and on the Black Sea coasts.

After the Bolshevik revolution, the Russians, who did not give up their expansionist ambitions, managed to get the reward for stopping the German armies in the east in the Second World War by making Eastern Europe a zone of influence after the war.

Continuing the Cold War rivalry with the Americans for many years successfully, Soviet Russia had to collapse with the Berlin Wall, which finally collapsed in 1989. Despite the fact that the Russian Federation, which was established in its place, has been struggling with extremely serious crises since 1991, its wide geography, nuclear weapons, rich natural resources, both above and below ground, have survived the XV. It has succeeded in maintaining its existence as a potential power based on the state tradition dating back to the century and the accumulation of being one of the two superpowers together with the USA in the last fifty years of world history.

Russians; Although they dominate a vast piece of land with 11 time zones from one end to the other, they always see themselves as 'compressed'. This immense geographical depth and breadth; It helped stop Napoleon in the 19th century and Hitler in the 20th century, and played a major role in preventing the invasion.

On the other hand, the concept of "peace" for the Russians; means being able to keep all the regions within the range of their armies as their own dominance and/or influence areas. This is Tsarist Russia This has always been the case during the Communism period and even after the Cold War. Religion, nationalism or ideologies have been useful tools for the Russians that only serve this understanding.

Russian diplomacy; It has fulfilled an important function for the success of the Russian state from past to present, due to its emphasis on the principles of 'continuity, patience and dexterity'. By acting together with Prussia and Austria, France's domination of the continent was prevented. Likewise, it is Russian diplomacy that unites with France and enables it to take its place against Imperial Germany. Again, it sided with Britain and France, thus isolating Hitler's Germany. Russian diplomacy; It also managed to become allies with Britain, France and the USA in the Second World War. Afterwards, a successful Russian diplomacy took place behind Europe, which was startled by the balance of terror by developing a policy based on nuclear tension during the Cold War, and confronted the Americans instead of the Russians.

The Russian Federation, which was established after the collapse of Soviet Russia, found itself surrounded by 14 new independent neighbors. In the new geography, four sub-regions have been formed on the Russian border in relation to Russia's concerns and interests:
1) First Region: It is the region that Russia calls "near periphery" and formed by the former Soviet Union countries. The region in question includes both the Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia) and Central Asian (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) states.
2) Second Region: It includes Turkey, Iran and Afghanistan, which is called the "next arc" and has a direct border with the immediate environment.
3) Third Region: It is called the “outermost arc” and it is Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia and other states in the Arabian peninsula (Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Yemen). ) and Syria.
4) Fourth Region: In the region known as the "Western axis to the west of the Russians", the countries that gained their independence from the Russians; Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Poland, Czechoslovakia (later the Czech Republic and Slovakia) and Hungary.

Today, the leading nations of Europe, overwhelmed by the hegemonic, imposing and "protectionist" policy of the American, generally expect a nostalgic feeling of affinity towards the Russians. However, the vast lands on which Russia is built and the existence of a great Russian power based on these lands cannot prevent Europeans from turning to thoughts that this superpower should be kept under control. The Russians, who wanted to be a part of the European power balance by appearing "cute" to the great nations of Europe, have never stopped turning to power politics in their close vicinity. The basis of their approach that frightens Ukraine and other Eastern European countries and wants to see Americans by their side all the time is the existence of the "Russian Fear", which is rooted in the genes of these nations.

We mentioned that 12 great wars took place between the Turks and the Russians. Most of these wars took place in the Black Sea axis. Therefore, the Black Sea's feature of being a geopolitical rivalry is not new. Black Sea from past to present; It has been a basin that hosts fault lines such as Turkish-Russian, Orthodox-Catholic, Muslim-Christian, East-West, North-South, Brussels-Warsaw. Six countries have coastlines on the Black Sea, and each of these countries has unique political significance. The successor of the Soviets, the Russian Federation, Turkey as a regional power, Romania and Ukraine, one of the most important countries of the former Eastern Bloc, Bulgaria, the gateway to the Balkans, and Georgia, the gateway to the Caucasus, are the coastal countries of the Black Sea. The Black Sea also causes Eastern Europe and the Caucasus as a whole to interact with this basin, through the rivers flowing into it and the surrounding basins. Bringing the Balkans, Eastern Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Turkey together, the Black Sea is considered a sea and basin with great geopolitical importance.

In this context, we find it useful to look at the geopolitical importance of the Black Sea, especially from the point of view of the Russians. Thus, this is necessary in order to better understand the current state of Russian power policy over Georgia in 2008, 2014, and Ukraine in 2014.
First of all, the Black Sea is a place that opens these coastal countries to world trade through the Turkish Straits. Turkey, which has opened and/or blocked the way to trade in the Black Sea, where there are around 30 ports in total; It cannot close its eyes to Russia's influence and power policies, it cannot stay away. A Turkey that closes its eyes; cannot protect its rights and interests in the Black Sea and Straits in the long run. First of all, it causes the darkening of your own future.
Between countries that want to seize the same roads as Turkey, which has waterways formed by straits that allow two-way passage. The rivalry in the country found a great deal of calm with the 1936 Montreux Regime. This contract, which strengthens Turkey's legal hand, is the most important historical document that registers Turkish sovereignty over the straits and indirectly the majority of the Black Sea.

Due to the extremely cold winter conditions in the northern seas in the vast Russian geography, the Black Sea is the only basin that allows the Russians to sail to the seas at any time of the year and connects them to the outside world. Therefore, the Black Sea has to be at the center of Russian geopolitics. The Kuban and Don rivers flowing into this sea also undertake a function that connects the Russian economy to the Black Sea. Especially the Don River, which flows into the Black Sea in the north-south direction, revitalizes Russian trade wherever it passes, as it allows two-way navigation. The Kuban river, on the other hand, acts as a control line connecting the Caucasian peoples and the Russian administration. The Sea of ​​Azov, an inland sea adjacent to the Black Sea, where two rivers flow into, has been a calm seaport for sailors fleeing from the hostile Black Sea for centuries. Built over the three-kilometer-wide Kerch Strait between the Sea of ​​Azov and the Black Sea, the new Russian bridge connects the Crimea and the Russian mainland.

Along with the Crimea, the Kerch Strait provides protection for the Russians from foreign attacks and guarantees their opening to the outside. Any power that might have Crimea leaves the Russians somewhat vulnerable. The strategic importance of Crimea lies behind the Russians' forcible seizure of Crimea from the Crimean Khanate, the Ottomans, and the Ukrainians in 2014, contrary to international law. Russian geopolitics does not have the genetics that can tolerate the Crimea and its surroundings being in the hands of another power. For this reason, the Russian policy of annexing the Crimean peninsula and its surroundings for defense rather than attack has not changed for centuries, it would be naive to expect it to change.

The Dniester river, which divides Ukraine in two and also where this country's capital is located, has historically served as a line separating the Slavic and Latin societies. This natural water barrier has been the main factor that has ensured the continuity of the Latin presence in Romania. The Danube, fed by the Alps and Carpathian mountains, has been a trade route connecting Central Europe to the Black Sea for thousands of years. At the same time, in the delta basin, where this river empties into the Black Sea, there is the Constanta base of the USA, which aims to settle in the region after 1990. Montreux's tonnage and time restrictions hinder the existence of an American navy strong enough to face the Russians in the Black Sea. In one sense, the Straits Regime disrupts the power policies that the Americans want to display in the Black Sea. It is not in vain that the biggest voice of opposition to possible amendments to the Straits Convention these days comes from Putin.

Occupying as much as 20% of Georgia's needs in 2008, Russia built four large ports in the Abkhazia region, rendering the two ports owned by Georgia largely dysfunctional. This situation limited the American-Georgian rapprochement and prevented the potential power-building potential arising from Georgia's being on the Black Sea coast with the support of the USA (and Turkey).

After the admission of Bulgaria and Romania to NATO membership in 2004, the American presence in these two countries was seen as a "danger" for the Russians. In the same years, Ukraine and Georgia started to be mentioned among the countries mentioned for NATO membership. Russia, which does not hide its discomfort and always opposes NATO's eastward expansion; By settling in Georgia in 2008, he destroyed that country's NATO dreams.

Subsequently, the forcible separation of Crimea from Ukraine on March 18, 2014 caused the tension between Ukraine and Russia, which has continued until today, to sit on the world agenda. Unlike Georgians, Ukrainians; They are committed to building their ties with NATO on stronger foundations and have continued to strive to integrate into the Western world.

At this point, Russia; As an extension of the territory it acquired from Georgia and Ukraine, it has declared its dominance over most of the northern half of the Black Sea (with the exception of the Romanian and Bulgarian regions, which are not large enough). This situation opened up a big playing field for Putin's Russia in the Black Sea after 2014.

NATO, on the other hand, implemented the Preparedness Action Plan with the decision taken at the Wales Summit in September 2014. In this context, alternate power transfers were made to Eastern European countries, albeit symbolically. In Ukraine, the Joint Multinational Training Group Command (with US, Canadian, Lithuanian, Danish, Polish, Swedish and British soldiers) was established under the leadership of the Americans. To complement this, the American presence in Romania has been increased lately. The fact that all of Greece, mainly the Alexandroupoli port, has been turned into an American base is perceived as the preliminary preparations that the Americans are carrying out to counter the Russians. In this context, it has taken action to settle in Eastern Europe as an element of American gas and military power, against Russia, which wants to condemn Ukraine and Western European countries to an energy security dilemma by using energy routes.
Russia, which needs Ukrainian lands in order to integrate with the West and maintain its Slav influence in the Balkans; continues to increase the pressure on Ukraine to leave these fertile lands to itself, at least the eastern part of the Dniester. The Ukrainian government, showing resistance to the Russians with the support of NATO and especially the American-British, is in an effort to implement all necessary political, military and economic maneuvers.

In this context, taking advantage of the gap in the Turkish-Russian complex relationship, Ukraine succeeded in adding Turkish armed UAVs to its inventory by purchasing; militarily, it had a better situational superiority in intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance. Russia, which showed strength with the Zapad 2021 exercise and then 'scratched' the artificial migration incident in Belarus; In the turmoil of rising anti-immigration and rising gas prices in Europe, he is making plans to enter Ukraine in the winter months with a fait accompli. Despite NATO's warnings to the Russians, it is unclear to what extent the Russian entry into Ukrainian territory and possible seizure of the Donbas region will be 'spy obvious'.

References

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