Will there be reconciliation with Damascus?

Towards Normalization with Damascus

One of my favorite working concepts of the military is the "Perfected Headquarters Work". Based on the term "Perfect Human Being", it is an idea produced by a common mind that has developed, matured, matured and perfected. In fact, it is a Life Cycle System, the beginning of which is not predetermined. In other words, it is an intertwined, spiralized, never-stopping activity, indeed a continuous activity that never stops. It is, as the ancients often put it, a "Efradini Cami Ağyarini Mâni" process that is frequently encountered in classical rhetoric and madrasah books. It is a set of activities in a sense in which the details for the solution are brought to the forefront by separating the weeds, garbage, disinformatic information pollution. Even though it is a misappropriation and misuse, the valid discourse is the "Agyarini Mâni Efradını Cami".  

In order to reach the right results, what is not relevant to the subject is weeded out, simplified and purified. Why? Because, starting from the point that one cannot get to the essence without eliminating what is not relevant to the subject, the irrelevant ones are separated, and in the end, those that are similar to each other are intersected and overlapped. But first and foremost, a 'master idea' (Planning Guide) is needed to start something. Every completed headquarters work begins with the responsible manager giving the main idea, the planning guide, and then it is intensified with the main information element he or she has given, and with the work of the qualified command staff, it moves towards a near-perfect result. For this reason, the presence of qualified and qualified personnel at all levels of the production-idea work is aimed at achieving results close to the truth.

Developing a policy on state affairs in future-oriented studies is not an easy task. Above all, there must be a political will to tolerate long-term work, which is the sine qua non of this work and the prerequisite of this subject. At the grassroots level, there must be institutions, cadres and a state culture that can handle this work. Undoubtedly, this requires cadres who can produce work on merit rather than those who are loyal to the leader. Since politics is the science and art of governing the state, before any action is taken in the political arena, first the political objective is determined, then the military objective that will realize these political objectives, and then the strategy that will realize this objective.

Intervening militarily in a place, in short, waging war, is not just a simple task, but a serious one. As is well known, war occurs when a political crisis erupts and diplomatic initiatives fail. And no political crisis comes out of nowhere. If diplomacy and diplomatic activities fail to resolve the crisis, armed forces come into play. Let us not forget that the use of arms does not mean the end of politics; politics continues through other means. What should not be forgotten here is the fact that politics is continued on almost every occasion, politics is the main thing. However, it is important to note that politics and diplomacy should not slalom and zigzag in different lanes, but should be integrated.

What should never be done in inter-state relations is to burn bridges, or red line politics is a very wrong conditioning. Contacts are maintained at all costs. In inter-state relations, even in the dimmest period of relations, intelligence and diplomatic contacts are and must be maintained.  Political dialog or diplomacy between states can never be cut off. This is the primary condition for having an impact. While answering journalists' questions on the plane after his visit to Ukraine on August 18, 2022, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said about improving relations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and restoring diplomatic relations with the Syrian government, "There can be no resentment in politics. You will always be at peace. You will have the opportunity to meet at any time" is the reflection of this argument in the field. (1)

President Erdoğan, who has repeatedly stated that he is trying to normalize relations with the Assad regime, made a similar statement after the G20 Summit in Indonesia and was able to put the situation succinctly as follows:

"In politics, there can be no eternal resentment, resentment, resentment. When the time comes, you can sit down, evaluate and make a renewal accordingly. At the moment, as Turkey, we can reconsider our relations with the countries we have problems with on these issues. Especially after the June elections, we can do it all over again. And accordingly, we can hopefully continue on our way accordingly." His response is a good description of this argument. (2)

The second dangerous situation is when the political objective is frequently changed and zigzagged. In this situation, the chances of devising a strategy that will lead to victory are almost zero. Especially in a cross-border operation, without a clear political objective and a sound strategy, there may be some partial gains, but the result is, at best, a disappointment. Even if there are gains on the ground, if one does not come to the table with strong cards in hand, the probability of losing in the negotiations is very high. It is an undeniable fact that under all circumstances and conditions: "The political objective, including war, must be clearly understood by all."  If the answer to the questions posed is negative, the soldiers in the field, on the battlefield, are at great risk. They are left to their grief.

Of course, it is not easy to develop a political objective in a policy that also risks war. Let's take a look at the relations between Ankara and Damascus. The most important variable affecting this phenomenon is Washington's Middle East policy. The first pillar of the Middle East policy is the unconditional and unconditional security and protection of Israel at all costs, with or without a treaty. The second pillar is to prevent Turkey, and more broadly the EU, from entering the Middle East for Israel's security. The speech delivered by the renowned US writer and thinker of Jewish origin, MIT professor Noam Chomsky, five months after the September 11 attacks, on February 15, 2002 in Diyarbakır by the Diyarbakır Democracy Platform, reveals this perspective.

In fact, this speech is also an explanation of the US policy in the Middle East. In a talk on "Socialization and Law" held at the Metropolitan Municipality Mehmet Akif Ersoy Theater Hall, Chomsky presented the phenomenon of "Kurdistan in Four Parts" in all its aspects. This is a planning guide. Interestingly, the US prefers to explain the outlines of its political goal through an opposition scientist who criticizes US world policy. Indeed, the political goal of the First Gulf War in 1991, the Second Gulf War in 2003 and the intervention in Syria in 2011, in other words, the proxy war, was the establishment of a satellite state of Kurdistan in four parts with access to the sea. Undoubtedly, the US is aware that this will be a long-term and bumpy struggle. Because such a goal can only be realized by taking Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran apart. Such a huge project would require decades. (3) Despite suffering heavy blows in West Asia, there is no indication that the US has backed down from this political goal, and in the case of Syria, its goal is clear, unambiguous and unambiguous.

The US, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and Jordan held a secret meeting in Washington on January 11, 2018 to discuss a plan for the partition of Syria. They also sought ways to include the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the YPG, the Syrian branch of PeKaKa, which Turkey considers a terrorist organization, is the main backbone, in the Geneva process. In this meeting, which was leaked to the press, they said: 'Ankara's position is understandable, but the SDF and the YPG are extremely important for us. We should definitely include the YPG in the negotiations under the title of SDF as part of a watered down formula'. It is seen that the primary goal of the countries participating in the secret meeting, whose secret calculations regarding the fate of the Middle East have been revealed, is to "sabotage" the Astana and Sochi processes that establish peace in Syria. (4)

Starting from 2018, the US started to put money into its budget. In April 2022, a report published by the US Department of Defense for the year 2023 revealed that $358 million worth of weapons, ammunition and equipment would be provided to Iraqi security forces under the name of the 'Counter-ISIS Train and Equip Fund', while $183.7 million would be allocated to US-backed organizations in Syria. 

After many tensions with the US and the EU, the Republic of Turkey has been able to put forward its political objective with great determination. The political goal of the Republic of Turkey in Syria, including the refugees, is to immediately establish a 20-mile (32 km.) security strip south of the Syrian-Iraqi border, from west to east, starting from Idlib and Afrin and extending beyond the Syrian borders to the Qandil Mountains in the Iran-Turkey-Iraq triangle. It has declared this political goal to the whole world and it has been accepted. 

In the security strip, just like the TRNC, a de facto state has been established that provides all the services required in a civilized state that is more effective than the PeKaKa Satellite state, from banking, postal services, health services to education and security organizations. This is not a 'buffer zone'.

In Syria, the opposition and regime forces have lost their ability to coexist, and the war has left a bitter and bloody residue that cannot be reunited, especially among opposition elements. For this reason, the UN-backed Syrian Constitutional Committee was established in 2019, and the parties have met in 8 meetings, which have disintegrated without making any progress to date. The 9th round of the Syrian Constitutional Committee meetings in Geneva, Switzerland, chaired by the United Nations (UN) Special Envoy for Syria Geir O. Pedersen, scheduled to take place in August 2022, has been postponed to a later date. In such an environment, to insist on accepting the restoration of Syria's territorial integrity as a fundamental pillar is tantamount to ignorance of the demographic divide that has become a bloody knife. The insistence of some elements that Turkey still insists on building such a national security policy is wrong and unacceptable in any way.

Claiming that there is no connection between geopolitics, political objectives, military objectives and strategy is tantamount to bringing terrorism to Turkey. The legitimacy of the operation, along with "self-defense against terrorism", has begun to be explained to the EU and the Russian Federation in a way to deter the US behind the Syrian PeKaKaKa, and important steps have begun to be taken towards a healthy alliance. What Turkey needs to do in order to expand its room for maneuver is to maintain contact with the Damascus regime and establish a healthy Damascus-Ankara dialogue.

In other words, further steps should be taken with the Syrian regime within the framework of the Astana and Sochi processes. It is believed that by taking these steps, the games of those who play behind closed doors in the entire region will be disrupted. The start of normalization between Damascus and Ankara could bring about important changes regarding refugees. First of all, both the US CAATSA sanctions on Turkey and SEZAR sanctions on Syria, which block the construction of the safe zone, should be lifted or alternative partnerships should be developed to neutralize them. With its superior combat capability, the Turkish Armed Forces will be able to capture military targets one by one and provide the power needed by the parties, let no one doubt.

Footnotes:

(1) BBC Türkçe Servisi, “Erdoğan'dan Suriye açıklaması: Devletler arasında hiçbir zaman siyasi diyalog veya diplomasi kesip atılamaz” 19 Ağustos 2022; https://www.bbc.com/turkce/articles/c72kgl416w2o/Erişim Tarihi 20.11.2022/

(2)https://www.tasnimnews.com/tr/news/2022/11/19/2806654/erdo%C4%9Fan-suriye-ile-normalle%C5%9Fmeyi-neden-erteliyor/ Erişim Tarihi 19.11.2022/

(3) Soner Polat, “Siyasi hedef ve strateji” Aydınlık Gazetesi, 19 Mart 2018;  https://www.aydinlik.com.tr/koseyazisi/siyasi-hedef-ve-strateji-84038/Erişim Tarihi 04.12.2022/

(4) Elif Sudagezer, “5 ülke gizli toplantıda Ortadoğu planı üzerinde anlaştı, Türkiye'yi büyük tehlike bekliyor” Sputnik Haber Ajansı, 27.02.2018; https://sputniknews.com.tr/20180227/abd-ingiltere-fransa-suudi-arabistan-urdun-gizli-toplanti-washington-nato-turk-kurt-catisma-israil-iran-suriye-ortadogu-harita-gorus-1032422675.html/Erişim Tarihi 04.12.2022/

(5) Selin Uludağ, ABD, Suriye’de bulunan YPG ve DSG’ye ne kadar ve nasıl askeri yardım sağlıyor? Sputnik Haber Ajansı, 21.11.2022; https://sputniknews.com.tr/20221121/abd-suriyede-bulunan-ypg-ve-dsgye-ne-kadar-ve-nasil-askeri-yardim-sagliyor-1063692457.html/Erişim Tarihi 04.12.2022/