France and the US continue their policy of pitting nations against each other

Unfortunately, through a highly conscious structuring, the Republic of Turkey was surrounded by two artificial nation-states from both east and west. Undoubtedly, this social engineering project was inherited from the Ottoman Empire to its successor, the Republic of Turkey.  The first of these artificial nation-states is Greece and the second is Armenia, which is once again on the agenda with the recent conflicts. And the third, let no one doubt, is the 'Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus (GKRK)'. All of them have been motivated and used against Turkey.

Artificial nation-state means building a state that serves the interests of the expansionist West without building a nation, and that is motivated by the West itself.  However, nation states are the founding elements and players of the international system. With the end of the age of empires, successive revolutions (the French Revolution and the Industrial Revolution) brought with them a new state organization. Thus, the formation and development of social and political life was shaped through nation states and the philosophical background of this formation was filled with nationalist ideology. This new form of state, which was shaped by nationalist discourse, brought with it a state of nationhood and the construction of a people suitable for this nation. (1)

You cannot build a nation-state without building a nation. What about the construction of Greece and Armenia? Both Greece and Armenia began the process of building the state without building the "nation" through the forced migration of people living in other places. The other, in other words, the mortar of resistance and integration, in other words the enemy, was the Turkish nation.

Bernard Lewis states that the word nation comes from Aramaic and is based on the root "milla" meaning "a word" and refers to a community of people who accept a holy book. This is exactly how the Ottoman state used the word millet for non-Muslims. The term 'Millet-i İseviye' was used for Christians, 'Millet-i Museviye' for Jews and the word 'ummet' was preferred for Muslims. In line with the religious meaning in its etymology, the word "nation" refers to a group of people who believe in the same religion, whereas the word "nation", which comes from Mongolian roots and is used as a substitute for the word "nation", is used to denote a different ethnic community. (2)

As it is often said, it was not and could not be a type of state that began to be seen on the stage of history with the Peace of Westphalia. As is known, "Nationalism" functions as a bridge between the state and society around the sense of national community. In this respect, nationalism is a process that creates its own origin. Nationalism is a force that aims to homogenize the society through belonging to the same political authority and to harmonize political and national borders. Is this how Greece and Armenia were built? No way, no way, in accordance with the meaning of the word "Greek" as it was used in the Roman Empire, a satellite state of Greece was built with qualified slaves and a satellite state of Armenia, which means "High Hill", was built with a geographical region. However, the name of the Armenian is "Hay" and the name of his country is "Hayasdan". On the other hand, Lord Byron, who participated in the 'Greek Rebellion', made a remarkable eulogy for Armenians by saying "Armenian language is the language of speaking with God".

Although the 44-day Karabakh War pushed Armenia back from the occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh, on April 24, 2021, US President Joe Biden gave the Pashinyan government a development that was almost like the "kiss of life".  Biden's announcement of the recognition of the so-called Armenian genocide, which annually exhausts the energy of Turkish diplomacy, greatly relieved the hand of Pashinyan, who had lost his army at the end of the war. Pashinyan, who was relieved after this result that Armenia had been waiting for years and decided to hold early elections, both won the elections and paralyzed the "pro-Russian" and fanatical statesmen, most of whom were from Nagorno-Karabakh, in an instant.

Let us now turn to the situation of the three countries that make up the Minsk Group, which is supposed to be the guarantor of peace in the South Caucasus. Russia, the guarantor of the November 10, 2020 Ceasefire Agreement, is busy with the Ukraine war and embargoes and is unable to fulfill its duties as it should. Especially now, the dramatic withdrawal from Kharkiv does not allow the Russians to look at anything else. More precisely, it is unable to fulfill its mission in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The other two members of the Minsk Group, France and the United States, continue to support Armenia, just as they support Greece and the SCGA. However, instead of trying to bring Azerbaijan and Armenia to the peace table, France and the USA, who are permanent members of the UN Security Council with veto power, have accepted arming Armenia with high-tech weapons, tools, equipment, hardware and ammunition as their primary task. In addition to cargo planes, VIP planes are also used in abundance. In order to strengthen the Armenian Army, an air bridge has been established in terms of weapons, equipment, hardware and ammunition.

The clashes that started on September 12, 2022 as a result of Armenia's provocation have so disturbed Pelosi, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, that it was announced that she would visit Armenia and meet with Pashinyan, taking with her the Armenian-born California Representative Speier. All the US is thinking about is the midterm elections to be held on November 8, 2022. Biden does not want to be a lame duck in Congress, as no president would want. Hispanics, who are traditionally known to be close to the Democratic Party, which is more preferred by immigrants and minority groups, have started to give the Republican Party a chance with the 2016 and 2020 elections. The chances are almost 50 percent and 50 percent.

It will be recalled that the most tangible development since 2020 was the transfer of Lachyn to Azerbaijani control in August, following the construction of a new road as an alternative to the Lachyn corridor connecting Karabakh to Armenia. Undoubtedly, this is not something that radical Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians will be able to digest. It should not be forgotten that terrorism is the official ideology of Armenia. This is also due to Nagorno-Karabakh.  Armenia has never stopped and continuously improved its relations with Syria, Lebanon, Iran and the PKK terrorist organization. As a striking result of this situation, on September 12, 2022, in the evening, the Armenian army carried out a large-scale provocation in the Dashkesen, Kalbajar and Lachin directions of the border, and Armenian troops laid mines on the lands and roads between the positions of the Azerbaijani army. As a result of the measures taken by Azerbaijani troops to prevent this situation, clashes broke out. 77 Azerbaijani soldiers were martyred and 282 were wounded, while Armenia lost 135 soldiers and more than 400 were wounded in the clashes on September 12-14. (3)

This bloody conflict is the most serious and largest conflict after the 44-day 2020 war. In realpolitik terms, the reason behind all this is the failure to implement the ceasefire agreement, and the fact that France and the United States have shown Armenia the same kind of cooperation here as they have shown to Greece and the GDRC in the West. According to Baku and Ankara, the Minsk Group's past efforts have only served to preserve the status quo built on Armenia's gains.  

On the other hand, Armenia has been put in such a position that interpretations and conclusions regarding the articles of the ceasefire agreement seem to be at odds with each other.  However, while the winds of change are blowing in the South Caucasus, Turkey has proposed a "3+3" formula that will bring stability to the region by increasing cooperation between Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia and the other three countries surrounding the region (Turkey, Iran, Russia).  This is literally a peace project. All that is needed is for Armenia to perceive everything as sincere after disregarding all negative facts. Today is the most favorable time for the implementation of this project. If this issue becomes operational, Armenia, which is considered to be able to get closer to Turkey, will be able to enter the winter season in a comfortable way, which can develop economically in a short time.

The ceasefire agreement that ended the Karabakh War, which changed the fate of the Turkic world, brought along certain gains. The most important of these is the opening of the Nakhchivan-Zangezur road that will directly connect Turkey to Azerbaijan and the Turkic world. While the agreement mentions the opening of transportation routes, Azerbaijan considers it as a corridor from Zangezur (Syunik) to Nakhchivan.

Yerevan, which sees the term 'corridor' as a transfer of sovereignty and cutting off Armenia's territory, emphasizes that such a thing cannot happen. This situation, which has almost become one of being or not being, constitutes the knot point on the road to peace. It is also clear that the opening of the Nakhchivan-Zangezur road is extremely critical in terms of connecting Turkey to the Turkic world and the newly developing trade network.

As it is well known, the "Belt and Road" project also includes a highway project as an alternative to the railroad. For example, Turkish trucks leaving Turkey need to pass through Azerbaijan to reach Central Asia in an easy and short route. However, when Turkish trucks want to pass through Armenia-Azerbaijan or Iran, they face a serious financial obstacle, the crossings are several times higher than they should be, and much worse, the large bribes taken under the name of 'footstep money' dictate an unbearable situation.  It should not be forgotten that Iran was once the first country that came to mind for truck and truck transportation between Turkey and the Turkic world.

However, after the 100 percent hike in 2014, the focus has shifted significantly to Azerbaijan (Caspian transit) and Russia. Therefore, TIRs are forced to go to Central Asia via Chechnya and Russia, which results in great losses in terms of time and cost. Those who go once cannot afford to go a second time. Iran perceives that the corridor to be opened through Armenia could further damage Iran's economic interests in this area.

So now we have to ask, don't we? Why is the Nakhchivan-Zangezur road, one of the biggest achievements of the agreement, still not open? It is well known that during the process of the agreement, RF guaranteed that the road could be opened under the control of peacekeeping forces. Now, it is preventing the opening of the road, citing the dangers posed by radical groups in Armenia. In fact, Russia is not only unable to allocate enough troops to the peacekeeping force, but is also very uncomfortable with this road. According to Russia, the opening of the Nakhchivan-Zangezur road means that Turkey will be directly connected to the Turkic world and Russia will be at a great commercial disadvantage. Even the very thought of this situation disturbs the Russian Federation. Can you imagine the advantages Turkey can gain from the South Caucasus region, which it defines as 'its own backyard'? The Russian Federation sees this situation and calculates it carefully.

If this corridor (Zengezur Corridor) in the south of Armenia is opened, the transportation lines between Turkey and the Turkic states in Turkestan will be able to be realized via Azerbaijan and Caspian transit. It is even envisaged that the energy raw materials of the Turkic World can be transported to Europe via the Caspian Sea-Azerbaijan-Armenia-Armenia and Turkey. In addition to the touristic attractiveness of the region with Turkey, the island of stability in energy supply, the presence of these transportation lines will also contribute greatly to the Azerbaijani economy. Depending on the development of relations, Azerbaijan can continue to contribute to its economy by exporting natural gas and oil to Armenia.

Another issue is the concern that Georgia's value will decrease and Iran may be harmed by this trend. This is precisely the reality behind the Iran-Armenia alliance. Iran's pro-Armenian stance during the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict is still remembered. The development of relations between Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan, and the transit of the Zangezur Corridor and the Azerbaijan-Turkey transportation lines through Armenia, will reduce the geostrategic importance of Georgia. The concern that some of the projects that previously added value to Georgia's economy and foreign policy, such as the Blue Stream and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, may now shift to Armenia as a transit country.

The other factor is Iran's discomfort. Overwhelmed by the US-imposed sanctions in recent years, Iran is eager for the Six-Platform (3+3) or tries to create such a perception. In particular, the improvement of relations between the three countries (Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan) is not seen as a welcome development by Iran, which has so far been antagonistic towards Turkey and Azerbaijan in the region. Moreover, the Turkey-Azerbaijan line will reach the Turkic states in Turkestan via the Caspian Sea and a Turkic World weight will be established in the region. Another fear of Iran is that Armenia's natural gas and oil purchases from Azerbaijan instead of Iran for "diversification of supply" will disturb Iran. In this case, Iran's regional power would be diminished, and some reasons such as the risk of the South Azerbaijani Turks in Iran getting closer to Azerbaijan do not seem to be results that Iran can easily accept according to the experiences reflected from the field.

Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev are one of the countries that are trying the hardest to evolve the current situation into political peace.  Indeed, on January 11, 2021, Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan reached an agreement in Moscow under the mediation of Russian leader Vladimir Putin to re-establish transport links. On November 26, 2021, the issue was discussed again at the trilateral meeting in Sochi, where it was agreed that a parallel mechanism would be put in place. Aliyev and Pashinyan met four times in Brussels, the first time on December 14, 2020, facilitated by Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, which in a sense also functions as the Minsk Group. On August 31, 2022, the last meeting attempted to chart a course towards peace. When Michel announced at the last meeting that the leaders had decided to speed up the work, it was thought that there could be a promising convergence on the drafts. In March 2022, Azerbaijani President Aliyev presented a 5-point peace proposal to Armenia. In short, the peace proposal was based on the principle of mutual recognition of each other's sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of international borders and political independence. While Baku argues that there is no longer a Karabakh problem, Yerevan is adamant that its basic principles cannot be accepted without a compromise on the status of Karabakh and borders.

In any case, Turkey and the brotherly country Azerbaijan have accelerated the necessary steps to open the Zangezur Corridor, while Russia's situation in Ukraine may turn this 'unresolved' stance into a positive one, dear readers.

Footnotes

(1)  Rifat Aydın, “Ulus, Uluslaşma ve Devlet: Bir Modern Kavram Olarak Ulus Devlet” Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt 6, Sayı 1, İstanbul, Mart 2018, s 229.

(2) Selim Karyelioğlu, Ulus Devlet ve Milliyetçiliğin Tarihsel Dayanakları ve Küreselleşmenin Ulus Devlet ve Milliyetçilik Üzerindeki Etkileri, Ethos Dergisi. Sayı:5(1), İstanbul, 2012, s. 254.

(3) Ruslan Rehimov, Ermenistan'ın provokasyonu sonucu çıkan çatışmalarda 282 Azerbaycan askeri yaralandı, Anadolu Ajansı 17.09.2022; https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/ermenistanin-provokasyonu-sonucu-cikan-catismalarda-282-azerbaycan-askeri-yaralandi/2687598/Erişim Tarihi 18.09.2022/