Sweden and Finland Join NATO?

Warsaw Pact's Invasion of Czechoslovakia:

On the night of 20-21 August 1968, the Soviet Army (East Germany, Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary) started the invasion of Czechoslovakia (Operation Danube) with approximately 250,000 soldiers. The political liberalization reforms initiated by Alexander Dubček, who became the prime minister in Czechoslovakia in January 1968, and which later became known as the "Prague Spring", disturbed the Warsaw Pact. Czechs-Slovaks; As they did not expect such an attack against them, they did not take any defensive measures. For this reason, the Soviet occupation was completed in a short time with the support of the collaborators inside. This occupation caused a total of 137 Czech-Slovak civilians to die and approximately 500 injured. Having a common border with West Germany, Czechoslovakia, a country that had completed its industrialization process before the Second World War, allowed this country to keep its contacts with the West somewhat warm. Czechoslovakia, one of the first countries to try to get rid of communism among the Warsaw Pact countries, was condemned to be ruled by the Czechoslovak Communist Party (KSČ) for a while under Brezhnev's boots as a result of this occupation.

The fact that this open occupation movement took place during the détente period between NATO and the Warsaw Pact was found to be significant. However, the United States, led by Johnson, who wanted to sign the Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT) with the Soviet Union and was also in trouble in Vietnam, was not willing to intervene in the developing situation in Czechoslovakia. The US's declaration that it would not intervene in favor of the Prague Spring relieved the USSR to do whatever it wanted.

If He Was a NATO Member, Could Putin Attempt to Occupy Ukraine?

Today, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are our two affiliate states, and both managed to become members of NATO in time. Can Putin today find the strength to attack these two NATO member states, similar to what Brezhnev did in 1968?

Let's be more clear, if Ukraine had been a member of NATO until 2014, would the Russians dare to annex Crimea? After all, would they dare to invade Ukraine, which has been continuing from February 24, 2022 to the present?

If he had not been so crazy as to want to consider a possible Third World War, if Ukraine and Georgia had become NATO members, there would have been no doubt that the Russian-Ukrainian War, which had curbed Russian aggression and occupied the world agenda and caused various global problems, would not have happened.

Importance of NATO Membership:

It seems that being under the umbrella of NATO has provided and has the potential to provide an important shield for all European countries that were unable to provide deterrence against the Russians. For this reason, the former members of the Warsaw Pact were eager to become a part of NATO at the first opportunity, and they sought help from the West not to go back to the old days.

With a similar thought, Ukraine and Georgia wanted to become NATO members as soon as possible, but NATO for some reason dragged their feet in making these countries members and preferred to slow the process down. NATO, which took the membership processes of these two countries slowly in order not to anger the Russians and not to cause a situation that would create a "security dilemma" between NATO and the Russian Federation, still could not prevent the Russian invasions. Citizens of these two countries have paid the price for NATO's delay in making Georgia and Ukraine members for various reasons. Thus, these countries either gave up or were crushed and suffered greatly in the face of the overwhelming power of the Russians.

Finland and Sweden's Perspectives on NATO Membership:

Although NATO, led by the USA, is an international security organization that follows ambivalent policies in some cases, it has so far been able to demonstrate a strong enough deterrence to prevent its members from being subjected to an external attack.

From this point of view, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Baltic countries, etc., which managed to become members on time by taking advantage of NATO's enlargement process after the Cold War. Allied countries have increased their uneasiness in the face of the rising new Russian threat. Particularly, NATO members in Eastern Europe started to dock with each other, with the effective support of the USA and England, and partly from Canada. Feeling the same uneasiness, Finland and Sweden have come to the stage of "seeing" that traditional neutrality policies will not be sufficient against a possible Russian attack.

Indications and signs that these two countries, which did not turn to NATO membership even during the Cold War period, may show the will to be a part of the Alliance in today's conditions, have also been seen as important in terms of showing how hard the Putinist wind is blowing in Europe or that such a perception exists. Putin's aggressive policies spread to the West in waves and turned into a wind of fear.

Countries Desiring to Join NATO Are Exposed to Increasing Russian Threat:

The enlargement of NATO has also produced positive results in terms of the reform processes initiated by the countries that are candidates for membership in the Alliance. In the meantime, it has become easier for NATO members and especially the USA to increase their influence on candidate countries.

Thus, enlargement has accelerated the transformation of NATO from a regional organization to a global organization. Former Warsaw Pact member Eastern European countries, which were included in the membership journey voluntarily, harmonized their military structures with NATO's standards with the help of the allies. The perspective of integration with European and Euro-Atlantic institutions continued to be an important incentive for the countries of the region to continue their reform processes.

The military and political contacts of these countries with NATO have increased NATO's influence in the Balkans and Eastern Europe. It has contributed to reducing the risk of conflict between countries in these regions. On the other hand, the enlargement process has increased the risks of conflict with the Russian Federation, especially for countries such as Ukraine, the Baltic countries, Finland, Sweden, Moldova, Belarus and Georgia. In this respect, while NATO's enlargement brought stability to the Balkans, it also caused the instability of Eastern Europe and the increasing Russian threat to these countries.

Four Advanced 'Partner' Countries of NATO:

NATO; In addition to meeting the security concerns of the member countries, it has a structure that is flexible to meet the very different interests and demands of the 'partner' countries that want to act together with the Alliance. Although the countries in the "advanced partners" (Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Austria and Ireland) group of the Partnership for Peace (PfP) do not have an immediate interest in joining NATO, most of the countries in this group are Western countries in the defense and security fields. They have become a part of the global system led by They have made significant contributions to NATO programs and have made troop contributions to peace-support operations when necessary. These "rich" countries, unlike other PfP countries, have almost never felt the need to receive financial support from NATO. His contributions are not disputed; in fact, it has also been recognized that they can make greater contributions to various security zones in the future. It is considered that cooperation between these countries and NATO, especially in the Arctic region, will be compatible with the interests and expectations of both these countries and the Alliance.

NATO-Finland Relations

NATO-Finland relations were maintained within the framework of the PfP Program without the membership request of this country. As one of the most active members of the Finland Partnerships Programme, he provided active support to NATO's 1996 Bosnia-Herzegovina Operation, then Kosovo Operation (KFOR) and the Balkans and Afghanistan missions (ISAF and RSM). Finland has been one of five countries participating in the creation of Enhanced Opportunity Partners, including Austria, Georgia, Jordan and Sweden, created to improve interoperability capabilities with partner countries. Finland, which is willing to take on new responsibilities in the insecurity environment in Europe that emerged after 2014, has started to act with an approach approaching NATO membership in the process of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which started on February 24, 2022.

Finland has signed host country support agreements with NATO for training and exercise activities, in which scenarios for responding to crises in its own region are also evaluated. Apart from taking a supporting role in the NATO Response Force (NRF) when necessary, together with Sweden, it has become a country that contributes to both NATO and EU countries with the Hybrid Threat Fighting Center of Excellence it established in 2017.

Expressing that it is ready to invest heavily in its defense with the exit to purchase F-35 aircraft from the United States in 2021, Finland has now shown that it is close enough to NATO to put aside its neutrality. Affected by the rising Russian threat in Eastern Europe, Finland, World War II. Since the World War II, it has continued its existence in the European geography as a 'neutral' country. The geopolitics of Finland, whose geography has not changed from past to present, has changed nowadays. Nowadays, Finland has come to express its willingness to join NATO.

NATO-Sweden Relations

NATO-Sweden relations have had a similar course to NATO-Finland relations. This cooperation, which started in 1994, has been continued within an intense activity program without membership target in line with the decision of the Swedish people. Sweden has been involved in many NATO activities, including contribution to the NATO Response Force. Active participation in NATO exercises. Sweden; Through its Armed Forces Training Center (SWEDINT), it continued to provide training to other partner countries on humanitarian aid, search and rescue, peace support, civil preparedness and democratic rules and control of the armed forces. It supported the NATO-Bosnia Operation in 1995, the Kosovo Operation since 1999, and the Afghanistan Operation since 2003.

Sweden has become a more important country due to its capabilities and geostrategic location in the changing security environment after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the activities within the scope of the measures taken by NATO for this purpose. It has made planning and investment decisions to strengthen and develop its defense capabilities. Sweden has become a country of critical importance like Finland in the adaptation/transformation activities initiated by NATO after 2014. The future struggles of the parties in the energy field, including the very large-scale exercises carried out in the region, made it necessary to raise these countries to the level of more important allies for NATO.

Russian Objections to Possible NATO Memberships of Finland and Sweden:

Within the scope of developments in the Baltic Sea region in NATO-Russia relations, Sweden and Finland have entered into active cooperation with NATO in both military and non-military activities.

At the NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting held in Brussels on 6-7 April 2022, it was decided to further support Ukraine and support other regional partners under pressure.

At the meeting, where the foreign ministers of Australia, Finland, Sweden, Georgia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, as well as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitro Kuleba, were invited, the members of the alliance decided to accelerate cooperation with the partners in Asia-Pacific as the crisis has global effects.

Making a statement regarding the decisions taken by the NATO Foreign Ministers, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned Finland and Sweden not to join NATO and argued that the possible participation of these countries in the military alliance would not bring stability to Europe.

Finnish President Sauli Ninistö rejected Russia's demands not to expand the borders of the Western military alliance any further and mentioned that his country has the right to join NATO if it wishes. “Finland's room for maneuver and freedom of choice includes military integration and the possibility of applying for NATO membership,” Ninistö said.

Likewise, the Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs stated that they would prefer the Alliance in the Russian-NATO conflict, saying that "every country has the freedom and right to make its own security choice" regarding his country's NATO membership. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, in her "addressing to the nation" speech, said that the general threat level increased after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and that they would take action to ensure that her country had a strong defense.

On the other hand, according to US officials, the NATO membership processes of Finland and Sweden were discussed at the NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels. In this context, it has been evaluated that both countries join the alliance in the summer of 2022.

As far as it is understood, the countries that took part in the Nordic Council established in 1952 and were not yet included in the Alliance, have come to the stage of taking a decisive step towards becoming a full member of NATO in the near future.

Conclusion:

The Russian threat has taken its place in the memories of Russia as the historical reality of its neighbors. With global warming, the close location of Finland and Sweden to the Arctic region has increased the geopolitical importance of these two countries. Aiming to block the Russians in Eastern Europe through the NATO enlargement process, the US-led NATO needs the territories of Finland and Sweden in order to surround the Russians from the north and to take advantage of the geopolitical interests brought forward by the Arctic region.

At a time when it was said that "it is unthinkable that there will be a war in Europe from now on", the Russian attempt to invade Ukraine brought these two countries closer to NATO and brought the Western world together around common interests and values. The willingness of Finnish and Swedish citizens to join NATO, which was at a very low level before the war, suddenly rose to over 50%. Strengthened by this, the Finnish and Swedish governments have turned to a policy that is more friendly towards NATO membership.