Turkey and BRICS

The relationship between Turkey and the BRICS community has been going on for a long time. The latest step in this relationship was taken by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, during his visit to China, responded to the question "Would Ankara like to join BRICS?" by saying "Of course we would, why wouldn't we? We have a customs union agreement with the EU, and we are also looking at new opportunities for cooperation with partner countries in different platforms such as BRICS." Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said that they welcomed Fidan's statement.

Fidan, who travelled to Russia to attend the BRICS meeting at the level of foreign ministers, also met with Putin at the Kremlin. "We welcome Turkey's interest in the work of BRICS, and we will certainly support in every possible way the desire to be together with the member countries of this union, to solve common problems," Putin said in a statement before the meeting.

Firstly, in 2017, then Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Şimşek said that they were considering becoming a member of the bank in order to benefit from the projects of the New Development Bank established by BRICS, and the following year, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attended the 10th BRICS summit and said, "I called for Turkey to be included in BRICS at the meeting." It was stated that Turkey's membership would be discussed at the BRICS summit in 2022, along with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. However, no decision was made at the 2022 summit to invite Turkey to membership, and Turkey was not among the 22 states that declared their desire to join BRICS in 2023.

WHAT IS BRICS; WHO ARE ITS MEMBERS?

The term "BRIC" was coined in 2001 by Jim O'Neill, then president of Goldman Sachs Investment Bank, in his publication Building Better Global Economic BRICs. The foreign ministers of the original four members (Brazil, Russia, India, China) met in New York in September 2006.

Created in 2006 by Brazil, Russia, India and China, the grouping emerged in an effort to strengthen co-operation among developing countries with growing influence in the world economy. A full diplomatic meeting took place on 16 June 2009 in Yekaterinburg, Russia. South Africa was added to the group in 2010.

Until 2011, when the Republic of South Africa joined the union, the original four members were called BRICs (or "the BRICs" in English). In the same year, the BRIC group changed its name to BRICS with the participation of South African President Jacob Zuma at the summit in Sanya, China. The term BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and the Republic of South Africa) is used to refer to the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. BRICS consists of the initials of the English names of these countries (Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).

The aim of the group is economic development, political cooperation and the defence of common interests in the international arena.

The group decided to expand at the 2023 BRICS Summit hosted by South Africa. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates joined BRICS on 1 January.

The expansion of the group to 10 members raised the question of what its name would be. Experts believe that the new name of the group will be BRICS+.

Bilateral relations between the BRICS countries are based on the principles of equality, mutual non-interference in state affairs and mutual benefit. BRICS countries hold 1 third of the world in terms of surface area.

POTENTIAL MEMBERS

Afghanistan, Argentina, Lebanon, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey have previously expressed interest in full membership of the BRICS group. Iran, Egypt, Nigeria, Sudan, Sudan, Syria and most recently Bangladesh and Greece have also expressed interest in joining the BRICS group.

BRICS COUNTRIES

The BRICS countries are recognised for their potential for significant influence on regional affairs in their respective regions and all five countries are members of the G20.

Since 2009, the BRICS countries have maintained contacts through annual official summits. The last of these summits, the 9th BRICS Summit, was hosted by China in Xiamen in September 2017. The next summit was held in the Republic of South Africa in July 2018. The term BRICS countries excludes countries such as South Korea, Mexico and Turkey, which later decided to enter into economic co-operation or partnership with the BRICS countries.

WHY IS BRICS IMPORTANT?

The BRICS countries include major world powers such as China and Russia, or major powers on their own continent, such as Brazil and South Africa.

The total population of the countries in the enlarged group is 3.5 billion. In other words, 45 per cent of the world's population.

The total size of the economies of the BRICS countries amounts to 28.5 trillion dollars. This corresponds to approximately 28 per cent of the world economy.

The BRICS countries also produce 44 per cent of the world's crude oil. The BRICS group calls for developing countries to have "greater weight and representation". In 2014, the countries in the group established the New Development Bank to support development projects.

By the end of 2022, BRICS countries had lent $32 billion to developing countries for new roads, bridges, railways and water supply projects.

Prof Padraig Carmody, an expert on the geography of development at Trinity College in Dublin, Ireland, says that this is particularly China's role for the BRICS. "China is trying to expand its power and influence through BRICS. Especially in Africa. They want to be the main voice of the Global South".

There are those who argue that Russia, another major power in BRICS, is using the grouping for a different purpose. Creon Butler of the London-based think-tank Chatham House argues that "Russia sees the grouping as part of its war against the West.

Can BRICS rival the G20?

The BRICS and the G20, both of which are economy-orientated structures, are often compared to each other and are said to be rivalling each other.

The G20 (Group of Twenty), of which Turkey is a member, was established in 1999 to promote economic co-operation and international financial stability. However, it should not be forgotten. The founders of BRICS are already members of the G20.

BRICS is a Great GLOBAL POWER

According to the BRICS Business Council report, the total gross domestic product (GDP) of the member countries exceeds USD 56 trillion and accounts for 31.5 per cent of the global GDP. Accordingly, this ratio is expected to reach 50 per cent by 2030.

The BRICS countries control 18 per cent of global trade and account for 22 per cent of foreign investment worldwide. On the other hand, with a total population of 3.2 billion, the total surface area of the BRICS countries, which constitute 41 per cent of the world population, corresponds to 26.7 per cent of the world's land surface area.

NUMBER OF MEMBER COUNTRIES INCREASES

The BRICS Summit, held in Johannesburg, South Africa in August 2023, approved the accession of 6 countries, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Argentina. However, Argentine President Javier Milei announced on 30 December that the BRICS grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and China had withdrawn from the mechanism. While Russia took over the presidency of BRICS for 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on 1 January that the union has now become a 10-nation structure and that Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have joined as new members.

Pointing out that they will evaluate new countries wishing to join the union this year, Putin said, "We will evaluate the readiness of about 30 countries that want to participate in one way or another in the multidimensional agenda of BRICS."

ALLIANCE AGAINST THE DOLLAR

While the steps taken against the dollar are likely to increase within the BRICS, the share of rubles, yuan and rupees in Russia's energy trade with China and India has increased significantly due to the sanctions of Western countries. While the reserve currency status of the dollar provides the US with advantages in the form of cheap financing and financial sanctions, the BRICS' "de-dollarisation" steps are likely to disrupt these advantages.

BRICS established the New Development Bank (NDB) in 2015 to create an alternative to the IMF and the World Bank and to support the de-dollarisation process in member countries. Dilma Rousseff, former president of Brazil and President of the NDB, stated last year that approximately 30 per cent of the loans given by the bank were made in local currencies and that the global financial system would now be replaced by a "multipolar system".

ALTERNATIVE CURRENCY

The gold reserves of the central banks in BRICS countries are another element that comes to the fore especially in the context of the "alternative currency to the dollar" debates. While the discussions on the establishment of a new common reserve currency within the union continue, Putin stated that BRICS is working on this issue, but it is not an easy process and will take time. Putin also stated that it is more important to establish a new system to ensure payments between states instead of a new reserve currency. According to the World Gold Council (WGC) data, Russia is the country with the highest gold reserves in BRICS with 2 thousand 332 tonnes. Russia is followed by China with 2 thousand 10 tonnes and India with 797 tonnes. Saudi Arabia has 323 tonnes of gold reserves, Brazil 129 tonnes, Egypt 125 tonnes, South Africa 125 tonnes and the United Arab Emirates 75 tonnes, while Iran, which has not officially reported, is estimated to have 325 tonnes of gold reserves and Ethiopia 100 tonnes.

TURKEY'S FOREIGN TRADE WITH BRICS COUNTRIES

Turkey carries out a significant level of foreign trade with BRICS countries. In 2022, Turkey exported approximately USD 17 billion to the BRICS countries. This amount has a share of 6.7% in Turkey's total exports. If BRICS expands with the accession of new countries, exports will increase to 31.6 billion dollars and constitute a 12.4% share in total exports.

Imports from BRICS countries will amount to $117.3 billion in 2022. The share of this figure in Turkey's total imports is 32.3%. With the expansion of BRICS, Turkey's total imports from the union will increase to $132.8 billion. This amount constitutes 36.5 per cent of Turkey's total imports.

BRICS countries also have a significant share in world trade. Considering the global trade figures, total exports are 5.1 trillion dollars with a share of 20.8% and total imports are 4.1 trillion dollars with a share of 16.4%.

What will happen if Turkey joins BRICS?

According to experts, the reason for Turkey's interest in BRICS is that, compared to Western organisations, BRICS is not strictly prescriptive.

Many Western experts argue that Russia is using BRICS for "other purposes". NATO member Turkey's participation in BRICS and its closeness with Russia could become another problem centre in already strained relations with the West.

An Alternative for Turkey?

As is well known, Turkey has been a member of the Western bloc since the Cold War. This situation also calls into question the long-standing European Union accession process. This is because Turkey's long-standing wait for membership is being linked by the EU to issues such as Cyprus.

On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel's attacks on Gaza have turned into a testing process for the West. The West's different approaches are carefully monitored by Turkey. For the West, Ukraine is a red line, a region that needs to be protected against Russia, while Israeli attacks targeting civilians in Gaza are supported by many Western states, especially the US. This situation and duality rightly worries Turkey.

Moreover, Turkey does not agree with the Western sanctions imposed on Russia and has a clear stance on the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

The economic and political areas of BRICS should be read well. Firstly, this group is advantageous in terms of creating economic and new commercial areas. Especially the economic geopolitical change in the global arena will be important for Turkey's influence in the region. This group is also important in terms of China's Belt and Road project and the advancement of new economic corridors. As the corridor wars are increasing in the international arena, the importance of the new Silk Road project is increasing, while India-oriented alternatives such as the G-20 Summit and different alternatives such as Turkey's Development Road project with Iraq or the CPEC Corridor are also emerging. In any case, Europe's continued energy and raw material dependence will give Turkey a central role in the Eurasian network of global economic networks, especially BRICS + energy transfer.

Secondly, Turkey's current trade relations with China and Russia will deepen, paving the way for the consolidation of new partnerships, particularly with Brazil and India. In the meantime, it should not be forgotten that relations among the member countries are not fully strong. The most important reason for this is the absence of China and Russia at the G-20 summit in India last year and the announcement of a new trade corridor (IMEC) at this summit, which left both actors ineffective. In this respect, Turkey can be considered to have a unifying role in these processes.

Another issue is that although BRICS membership offers a union with an economic dimension, it is likely to have political consequences as well. Turkey, besides being a country whose EU membership process is ongoing, is also a NATO member and this membership may not be welcomed by NATO, especially in a period when Russia confronts NATO in BRICS. The same is also true for the EU. However, the EU's ambiguous attitude towards Turkey's membership and the fact that it has kept Turkey waiting at the EU door for years will leave possible criticisms unjustified in a sense.

Russia has long been trying to create a new alternative to Western sanctions through the international organisations it is involved in. However, within the global economic and political structure created by BRICS+, there are also differences in the members' relations with each other and their foreign policy approaches. Their approaches to the Russia-Ukraine War are different. In this respect, being the first NATO country to cooperate with both group members and BRICS+ and maintaining its relations with the EU could create a bridge between East and West for Turkey. In terms of Turkey's independent foreign policy, this step will not be an alternative to the EU, but will create a new partnership area. Likewise, it should not be ignored that this union is not only centred on Russia, but also includes important global actors such as China, Brazil and India.

Finally, although Turkey is not a member of the EU, it is a country that has adopted the EU's economic, political and social standards. At the same time, it is open to new non-Western alternatives in the international arena. It is important to make good use of the global economic potential offered by BRICS and not to miss out on global cooperation. In this respect, the most important policy to be followed should be a process to be carried forward on a win-win axis for both Western and non-Western areas. Because in the global system, the approach that progresses with partnerships, not exclusionary, ensures the resolution and termination of conflicts. In this context, Turkey is an important actor that is aware of the responsibility created by this political approach.

CONCLUSION

The radical changes that took place in the global economic order at the beginning of the twenty-first century changed its dimension with the effects of the 2008 world-wide crisis, and declines were observed in the economic indicators of Western countries, while increases were observed in the economies of developing countries.

Following this phenomenon, since the early 2000s, economies that achieved rapid economic growth, managed to attract a large amount of foreign direct investment and rapidly increased their influence on the global economy have been subjected to different categories, and the BRICS countries have attracted the most attention among these categories.

Their large populations, vast territories, potential to cooperate in many fields, and their desire for economic and social integration have enabled the relations between the BRICS countries to evolve into a different position on the political plane. The Foreign Ministers of China, India and Russia came together with the theme of combining economic power and political power in a new centre and continued these meetings.

Following these initiatives, the first BRICS meeting was held in Russia on 16 July 2009. The BRICS countries, which have held eight summits to date, have taken decisions on cooperation in many areas from agriculture to finance, from security to health, from trade and investment to the establishment of a development bank in these meetings held at the level of heads of state in one country every year.

The BRICS Community, which aims to restructure the economic system as well as the interests of its members, is an important organisation that aims to strengthen multilateralism. With its current structure, the BRICS Community is a power centre that can contribute to the formation of positive multipolarity in international relations and influence global alliances.

References

1-chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/764613

2-https://turkiyearastirmalari.org/2024/06/12/fokus/fokus-turkiye-acisindan-bricsin-avantaj-ve-dezavantajlari/