2039-2040 Strategic Outlook Report: The Pacific Breakdown and the New World Order
In line with the NIC's projections, the world order is moving away from being shaped around a single hegemonic centre. Our world is evolving towards a multipolar but unstable structure where competition is becoming unregulated. The period 2039–2040 is highlighted as the final threshold of this evolution.
The report Global Trends 2040: A More Contentious World, published by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC), defines the fundamental character of the next twenty years as accelerating power competition, weakening global governance, fragile state structures, and the simultaneous occurrence of multi-layered crises.
In line with the NIC's projections, the world order is moving away from being shaped around a single hegemonic centre. Our world is evolving towards a multipolar but unstable structure where competition is becoming unregulated. The period 2039–2040 is highlighted as the final threshold of this evolution.
It is common knowledge that the US views China as its closest and most equal rival, particularly in a multipolar world system. Among the foremost possibilities is that the US will implement an institutional security architecture, such as the Osaka Defence Pact (ODP), with the aim of countering the People's Republic of China's growing military and economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The purpose of this pact is defined as maintaining control of maritime trade routes in the Indo-Pacific region and curbing China's military expansion in the region along the ‘First and Second Island Chain’ line.
The ‘simultaneous deepening of great power competition in the military, technological and economic spheres’ highlighted in the NIC report also points to what will be at the forefront of such a pact's remit, reinforcing this global scenario based on China-US conflict. However, in my opinion, an ODP-style structure could transform the Russia-China rapprochement from a tactical partnership into an inevitable geostrategic union of destiny. These two poles could jointly transition to a new and powerful alliance structure.
The Shanghai Pact, the most comprehensive counter-alliance in history, uniting Eurasia's vast resources and military capabilities against US hegemony, could form the basis of this new alliance. Looking at our world in light of such possible developments, as the globe evolves towards a multipolar but extremely fragile balance squeezed between two massive blocs, great powers eager to project their power will now see it as necessary to transition to a new paradigm measured not only by conventional weapons but also by energy independence, technological superiority, and especially the space dimension.
In this context, I would like to express my view that Turkey could lead a new structure that embraces active neutrality and institutionalises this with its allies, rather than becoming directly caught between the new blocs centred on the US and China and narrowing its room for manoeuvre. This structure could be referred to as the ‘Bosphorus Pact’. I would like to express my view that such an initiative, matured by Turkey and brought to the global agenda, could be a strategic step that would position Turkey differently in the world.
Meanwhile, considering the European Union's geopolitical position, caught between the US-China rivalry, positioning the EU to contribute to such an initiative would also be a situation to be evaluated for the Bosphorus Pact. Multilateral and flexible initiatives such as the Bosphorus Pact should be considered as a tool to strengthen Turkey's national sovereignty and regional power-building processes. Such a pact should be seen as a historic opportunity to increase Turkey's influence in the global system.
Ultimately, the years 2039–2040, as seen from the American perspective, are defined as a threshold period in which the global system evolves from controlled crises to uncontrolled ruptures, and the NIC draws the attention of American politics, commercial and military institutions to these years. In this context, it is claimed that the Great Pacific Breakdown will have cascading geopolitical consequences affecting not only the Asia-Pacific but also Europe, the Middle East and the whole of Eurasia.
The fundamental issue for Turkey during these years is not to position itself as a ‘frontline element’ in any global bloc, but rather to build a strong structure, similar to the Bosphorus Pact, with allies that can act in concert with it, as a balancing, mediating and, when necessary, disruptive strategic actor. Otherwise, the new world order that will emerge in 2039 and beyond will bring with it a high-cost uncertainty for states that are dragged along rather than choosing sides. However, regional states such as Turkey have the historical and geopolitical accumulation to be in a position that shapes and directs the wind, rather than being swept away by it. Building a workforce that recognises this high value, convincing our people of their own worth and of the richness of our country's resources and high potential, must be our foremost goal. When we invest in our people in line with this paradigm, new and great opportunities will always exist on new horizons for Turkey. We just need to be ready for them.
