Biden's Soft Belly: The German-Russian Line

Putin's Russia, which has risen by evaluating the rise in natural gas and oil prices with a rational strategy to build the goal of "Greater Russia again"; started to follow a proactive close environment policy in order to revive its lost influence in the former Soviet geography. Thus, Russia aimed to reduce the influence of the European Union and NATO in the countries around it and showed that it would not hesitate to use hard force when necessary to achieve this. From this point of view, it can be said that the events that led to the onset of the crisis in Ukraine emerged in connection with Russia's discomfort with Western initiatives in its immediate surroundings.

As a matter of fact, Russia 'caused' the Georgian crises in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 to show that it would not compromise to be surrounded by the West and to gain the superiority of the situation against NATO in the Black Sea in line with its own national interests. Under the leadership of the USA, Moscow, which sees it as a developing threat for itself, by leading the "rose and orange" revolutions of the Western world, highlighting the political figures that may have close relations with the West in the domestic politics of these two countries; Ukraine and Georgia used their 'revolution' as a 'justification'. Afterwards, numerous negotiations were held between the parties and no significant progress was achieved. Meanwhile, the West preferred to increase its military presence in Eastern Europe over NATO, starting from 2016. At the present stage, the problem of the deterioration of the territorial integrity of Georgia (the declaration of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and their recognition by the Russian Federation) has been put on hold, almost frozen today. On the other hand, with the active support of the USA to Ukraine, the ashes covering the Ukraine Crisis have been scattered, it has become the number one issue occupying the world agenda for the last six months, and the possibility of a hot conflict has increased.

While the parties in the 2021 Ukraine Crisis should have been Kiev and Moscow, as a reflection of Putin's conscious choice of diplomacy, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy was not taken as Russia's interlocutor. This is certainly not Zelensky's fault. In the crisis in 2014, Putin did not accept the then President Petro Poroshenko as an interlocutor and preferred to meet with his counterparts in the USA and Europe to solve the crisis. For Putin, who sees the crisis in Ukraine as a proxy war, this approach is in line with his friend-enemy rhetoric, and the Russian leader has made it clear that he regards the West as the main enemy trying to destabilize Russia.

In order for Russia to improve its relations with the West, NATO's expansion must stop, a guarantee must be given that Ukraine will never be made a NATO member, and NATO must abandon its missile deployment in Eastern European countries close to the Russian border. Therefore, Putin, who is well aware that solutions to these issues cannot come from Ukraine, considers it "unnecessary" to communicate with Zelenskiy. It continues to maintain a similar policy of not communicating with Poroshenko against Zelensky today.

The US-Russia negotiations for a solution between Biden and Putin, which are taking place in line with Moscow's request, have become the only important ground for a solution to be achieved. However, Biden; He argues that if the Western world 'closes its eyes' to a possible Russian attack on Ukraine, then the door to Russian attacks can be opened to other former Warsaw Pact and present NATO members in Eastern Europe. Moreover, Biden is not alone in this thought. The active support of Britain and Canada, including military force support, is shown as part of Ukraine's solidarity. With a similar understanding, Poland and the Baltic states, which are in a geography closer to the Russian threat, preferred to side with Ukraine, and they considered it necessary to shift some of the military materials in their inventory to Ukraine in the name of solidarity with this country. This solidarity should also be seen as steps taken as an investment in the future so that their country is not left alone against Russia, in case of a possible Russian attack against them in the future.

At the current stage, the relatively passive stance of France and Germany towards the resolution of the Ukraine Crisis, and Berlin's reluctance to make military contributions have attracted attention. Nevertheless, it is evaluated that the contribution of these two countries towards a solution can prevent a possible conflict and offer important opportunities. It is emphasized that the attitude of the European Union, and especially of Germany, is important in resolving this problem.

Three differences of opinion between the USA and Europe

The Americans and Europeans took a common stance in rejecting most of the Russian demands, including the "freezing of NATO expansion", Le Monde newspaper reported, citing French  diplomatic sources. 

He wrote that, despite their advances, the leading countries of the Western world have different approaches in three main areas: “The reality of the threats plaguing Ukraine, what kind of approach will be taken in case of an escalation of the crisis, and finally what kind of sanctions will be applied to Russia, which is the most sensitive issue.”

Despite these different approaches, the entire Western world, including Biden, agrees that the success of possible sanctions, if implemented against the Russians, will largely depend on Germany's attitude.

Germany's approach to the crisis in Ukraine has focused on ensuring European security without excluding Russia, within the framework of real politics, since 2014. On the other hand, Germany's increasing dependence on Russia in the field of energy makes it difficult to follow a harsh policy against Moscow, and it is considered as a factor that prevents the Western world, including the USA, from turning to harsh policies. Germany's ongoing moderate policy towards Russia is a reflection of the 'warm' relations (except for wars!) that have been going on between Berlin and Moscow for the last two centuries.

Russian Tsar Peter I, who made Russia an influential actor in European politics, established the Academy of Sciences, which he created to bring Western civilization to Russia, with the support of German scientists. In return, the interests of the Germans in Russia were protected. With the French Revolution, during the nationalist movements that shook Europe, the states of Prussia and Russia acted together to protect their monarchical systems. Russian Tsarina II. Katerina being German, Kaiser II. Wilhelm and Tsar II. The fact that Nicholas was cousins ​​and that there were kinship ties established by marriage between the ruling families of the two nations increased the weight of the 'kinship' factor in the German-Russian relationship. The ties of kinship enabled the German culture to enter the Russian palaces and the fusion of the two cultures.

Katerina settled German farmers on Russian (Ukrainian) lands and German colonies were established on these lands. During this period, Germans immigrated to Ukraine with promises of land, water and freedom. By 1914, the German population in Ukraine approached two million. Even now, 35-40 thousand Ukrainian citizens of German origin live in this country.

In 1922, the Weimar Republic became the first state to recognize the Soviet Union. This situation created a sympathy for Germany in the Russian people, and the fact that Russia was the state that gave the greatest support to the unification of Germany in 1990 caused a feeling of gratitude towards the Russians in the German people. On the other hand, Germany; He believed that a Europe without Russia could not achieve stability and prosperity. These two factors strengthened the relations between Germany and Russia. For this reason, Germany has never been willing to look warmly at the NATO membership of Ukraine and Georgia, in line with the expectations of the Russians.

In addition to the closeness created by the historical relations between Germany and Russia, the close relations arising from the economic dependence in the energy field continue to maintain their importance. As a result of this reality, there has always been continuity in Germany's Russian policy. German governments have sought to improve economic relations between Berlin and Moscow. Germany; It acted with the idea of ​​"convergence through economic integration" and aimed to ensure the harmony of Russia with the regulated world of Europe.

Germany is Russia's largest trading partner and has to meet one third of its oil and natural gas needs from this country. Although it has made progress in the use of renewable energy sources and obtains energy from its own internal sources, Berlin; It has not yet achieved a diversity that can reduce its dependence on Moscow to a reasonable level. Since 2013, Germany has become the largest buyer of Russian natural gas coming via Ukraine. In addition, Germany, which meets a significant part of its oil and coal needs from Russia; If the Nord Stream-2 line built between Russia and Germany is opened, it aims to achieve an energy flexibility where the impact of the crises in Ukraine and the Balkans can be minimized. However, Germany's sensitivity to any power cut from Russia continues to be quite high.

However, the USA, aware of the fact that if the Nord Stream-2 line is activated, will increase Russia's opportunities in energy access to Europe, both to be able to continue to sell its own liquefied gas to Europe and to protect the current importance of Ukraine, the Russians are surrounded with the support of EU members. In order to maintain its policy, it does not favor the opening of this line. Therefore, it indirectly puts pressure on the German government to delay the opening of this line as much as possible.

Meanwhile, German goods and German investments are of great importance for the Russian market, and 7-8000 ci companies operating in Russia 

The protection of the commercial interests of the existing German company is important for Berlin.

In addition to its historical ties with the Russians and its increasing energy dependence, despite its strong foreign trade relationship, Germany; With a similar understanding to Turkey's foreign policy, he declared that he supported the territorial integrity of Ukraine after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014 and did not accept the decision to annex Crimea to Russia. However, at that time, Germany opposed the exclusion of Russia from the G-8. In addition, Merkel rejected the requests of some Eastern European states to withdraw from the Baltic pipeline project agreement that Germany signed with Russia, and opposed the US plans to place defense missiles in Eastern European countries. Despite this, Eastern European countries within the EU, which see the Ukraine crisis as a vitally important event for themselves, supported the imposition of sanctions against Russia. However, Germany, which has close trade relations with this country, has been in an approach that prioritizes solving the problem through diplomatic means.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's geographical proximity has aroused fears in German society that the crisis is at its doorstep. Despite this, Germany's continued shy stance in foreign policy has brought with it criticisms about Berlin in the international arena.

Germany's 'cracked attitude' in the Western world on economic sanctions stems from Germany's historical experience. Germany, which refrains from using concepts that evoke war such as interest and strategy, therefore no longer arouses fear in neighboring countries in its foreign policy, but its passive insensitivity also causes discomfort in its allies.

Despite the perception that Germany can play the most important role in the resolution of the Ukraine crisis and exert pressure on this state through its harsh policy towards Russia; It is not yet in favor of opposing Russia. Germany; He argued that security in Europe can be built together with Russia, not by standing against Moscow, and that Russia should not be isolated. In this respect, Moscow sees Berlin as its supporter within the EU.

Most of the Germans did not support any military intervention in Russia. In addition, the German public did not take kindly to the NATO membership of Ukraine and Georgia. However, the Germans were disturbed by Russia's aggressive and destabilizing policy towards Ukraine. In any case, the Germans, who argue that Russia should be won and made a part of European security, should lead the way in its realization. At this point, no significant German success has been demonstrated so far.

Today, Russians, who earn great income from natural gas and oil trade and want to be perceived as a regional power by the West, mostly believe that this can be achieved by living together with the West, rather than fighting with the West. For the average Russian, democracy and expansionist policies are not a priority in the short run. The belief that the continuation of the Ukraine crisis will not benefit Russia's stability has started to become the common view of the Russian people, despite Putin. Both Germans and Russians believe in the possibility of a climate of peace in Europe this spring, if Russia's difference from the West is respected and US hegemony is not established in the Russian immediate environment.

Despite Russia's attitude of "just sitting at the table with the United States", with the support of Germany, the French President of the EU Term President Emmanuel Macron has been in an active search for the participation of Europe in the negotiations since January 2022.

As the new Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, who started to act together with Macron, met with Putin and increased his contacts with Biden, a suitable ground began to be formed for the EU to have a weight in the search for reconciliation between the USA and Russia. However, the weak presence of the EU is not enough to bring a solution for now.

Although there have been contacts between the parties at the level of Foreign Ministers, some disagreements regarding the crisis still persist. Despite the Biden administration complying with the guarantee that "without Europe, no decision will be made about Europe", the uncertainty regarding the role Europe and especially Germany will play in the negotiations has not been eliminated yet.