Blocs emerge before World War III in line with the concern for a 'common future' 

Leaving aside the relatively small islands of Great Britain, Australia and the Pacific, our globe consists of two large world islands, one in Afro-Eurasia and the other in America. One of these islands is the 'Old World Island' and the other is the 'New World Island'. As you know from the World History, major wars on a world scale used to start in the old world island covered by the continents of 'Afro-Eurasia', first in Europe and ended in this continent. In other words, the 'Old World Island' was the centre of conflicts, confrontations and showdowns. On the other hand, conflicts in the 'New World Island', which the USA, as a hegemonic power, considers as its backyard, would start under its own knowledge and control and would be terminated without any harm to itself. The USA also supported the warring parties in the old world island for a certain period of time without discriminating between them, put the products of the war industry at the disposal of both sides for a certain period of time in return for money, and then, when the winner of the war was determined, it would lean towards the winning side, mobilise its combat power to that side, and become the winner of the war without being worn out. This approach and expansion not only gave the USA a great privilege, but also enabled it to play a leading role in reshaping the world.

After the two world wars that took place in the first half of the XXth century, the task of shaping the world was presented to the USA on a golden platter, and it was almost rewarded with the task of creating the post-war world. Let us recall together that the 'Wilson Principles', the 'Truman Doctrine', the 'Eisenhower Doctrine', all named after US President Woodrow Wilson, which shaped the western world, were all products of this understanding. While the First World War abolished the empires, the Second World War ended the nation states that had only taken shape after Westphalia in 1648. However, the foundation of modern international relations was laid with the Westphalia Peace Treaty signed in 1648. 

The most prominent feature of the Westphalia peace is the emergence of the first nation-state concept. In other words, wars and rivalries were no longer fought by the clans shaped around a monarch, but by the decisions of nation states that had begun to become nationally conscious. Indeed, this is an important distinguishing feature. The Westphalian system and the geopolitical model based on it aimed, in the first stage, to protect the common interests of the European states, to regulate the relations between them, and to eliminate geographical, national, etc. problems that might arise. (1)

The Second World War ended the Westphalia approach and ushered in the era of pacts.   NATO, CENTO, SEATO pacts or camps were the products of this expansion. In other words, a period in which the USA, led by capitalism, and the USSR, led by Russia, tried to draw countries into their own camps in order to spread capitalism and communism, and a period in which armaments were constantly armed to have a deterrent effect against hot conflicts that were feared to break out one day, in other words, the period of "Cold War" in which deterrence was dominant. Undoubtedly, the two most prominent actors of the "Cold War" period were NATO under the guidance of the USA and the Warsaw Pact under the monopoly of Russia.

The most important game plan of the NATO camp, according to the famous American geopolitician Spykman's 'Rim Belt Theory', was to isolate or encircle the countries of the Old World Island in order to prevent them from joining forces among themselves. However, the strategic calculation that shaped this routine Cold War, which was won without a single shot being fired, broke down towards the end of the second millennium and collapsed with the XXI century. At the same time, the scope of the pact has expanded to include almost all states. Just as, according to Wilson's Principles, the world of the XXth century was shaped by the Old World Island until the 1930s, the world of the XXIth century is being completely shaped towards an expanded bipolar world until 2030. While a New World Order is being built in every century, the process of building the XXI century New World Order has entered dangerous three months since the beginning of May 2024.

In parallel with the expansion of NATO, the Sino-Russian agreement to enlarge BRICS+ has formed the counter-reflex of the process of building the New World Order of the XXI century. In this context, Xi Jin Ping, the leader of the PRC, first appeared in Europe as a counter-reflex to the US and assumed a challenging role. At the beginning of May, the Xi Jin Ping wind, which implicitly challenged NATO, blew in Europe. Xi Jin Ping was with Serbian leader Vucic on the 25th anniversary of the US launching a unilateral war against Yugoslavia by bombing Serbia and its capital Belgrade for 78 consecutive days on 24 March 1999 under the guise of NATO, including the bombing of the PRC Embassy in Belgrade. 

Visitors to Belgrade have seen it. On 7 May 1999, the United States hit the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in the Novi Beograd municipality of Belgrade with five US-made JDAM guided bombs. This is why Xi Jin Ping, who travelled to Belgrade especially for the commemoration of the 25th Anniversary of Belgrade, emphasised that Chinese and Serbian friendship is steeped in blood and stressed the importance of the meaningful visit. This is indeed a very distinctive feature. NATO has tried to confront the PRC with the US. Under the guise of NATO, an aerial intervention was carried out in which 500-1200 civilians were killed and 5500 injured, including 3 Chinese journalists. The Chinese Foreign Ministry states almost every year at the commemoration ceremonies that Beijing will never forget the NATO air strikes on the embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999 and that it believes that the alliance should be consigned to history with the end of the Cold War. This has been one of Putin's most used arguments vis-à-vis China.

Moreover, almost every year during the commemoration ceremonies of the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, the statement "Neither the Chinese people, nor the Serbian citizens, nor the international community will forget NATO's barbaric act of aggression" is made. It is also emphasised that the US-led NATO army has grossly violated the relevant international conventions and the basic norms of international relations, 'shamelessly violating' United Nations (UN) Security Council regulations. (3)

Following Xi Jin Ping's high-profile remarks at this year's 25th Anniversary Commemoration, Serbian Prime Minister Vucic and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban tried to draw Europe's attention to the fact that "there will be war in Europe in 4 months".

During the visit of Chinese President Xi Jin Ping, who visited Europe for the first time in five years, an agreement was signed as part of the comprehensive Serbia-China partnership called "Shared Future", which will deepen the economic and political ties between China and Serbia. In short, the Shared Future Agreement goes beyond the "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement".

Within this general framework, Putin has attempted to replicate Chinese President Xi Jin Ping's defiant visit to Europe in Asia.  Putin, for whom the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant, underlined the new line of resistance by making his first post-election visit to China on 16-17 May 2024. While NATO was preparing to celebrate its 75th anniversary, Russian leader Putin established a military alliance with North Korea after 24 years in Pyongyang, the first leg of his Asian tour on 18-19 June 2024 on the 75th anniversary of USSR-North Korea relations, returning to the partnership model of the Soviet times. As is known, when the USSR collapsed, North Korea lost its biggest military, technical and economic supporter. On 19-20 June 2024, it went to diversify its relations with Vietnam, which the West could not divide. The "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement" between Russia and North Korea replaced the 2000 "Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighbourliness and Cooperation". The new agreement provides for "mutual assistance in the event of an attack on one of the parties", similar to the NATO treaty, which stands for "One for All, All for One". Moreover, it has a military dimension. China's political and economic relations with North Korea have been enough of a problem for the US, and now RF enters the equation. Another distinctive feature of this visit is that RF aims to establish a "Nuclear Balance" in Asia with China and North Korea, which has conducted its sixth nuclear weapons test, against the US.  All this constitutes the starting point for the construction of a "Common Future".  

Yes, dear readers, all these partnerships are being established at a time when NATO countries are preparing to provide Ukraine with F-16 jets and long-range missiles, and Russia is dusting off its 'nuclear' weapons. Needless to say, Putin's speech at the economic forum in St. Petersburg on 5 June, in which he spoke of a symmetrical response against the countries supplying Kiev with precision weapons, i.e. "I will shoot not only the user of the weapons but also the supplier of the weapons", is the beginning of a new escalation.

After all these, while the world is searching for its future, two summits come to the fore. The first of these is the BRICS Summit to be held in Astana on 3-4 July, and the second is the NATO 75th anniversary Washington Summit one week after the BRICS Summit.  Let us not forget that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is the special invitee of the first of these two meetings and the mandatory and permanent participant of the second one. These two summits contain parameters that will affect all world balances, dear readers.

Footnotes

(1) Ali Hasanov, "Geopolitical Theories Methodology Actors Historical Characteristics Concepts", Istanbul, October 2012.

(2) Bülent Erandaç, "Global leader President Erdoğan", Takvim Newspaper, 20 June 2024; https://www.takvim.com.tr/yazarlar/erandac/2024/06/20/kuresel-lider-baskan-erdogan/ Access Date 23.06.2024/

(3) Sputnik World, "Chinese Foreign Ministry: We will never forget NATO's bombing of our embassy in Yugoslavia", 06.05.2022; https://anlatilaninotesi.com.tr/20220506/cin-disisleri-natonun-yugoslavyadaki-buyukelciligimizi-bombalamasini-asla-unutmayacagiz-1056142652.html/ Accessed 23.06.2024/