Could Damascus and Ankara Open a White Page?

On August 5, on his way back to Turkey from the Sochi summit, President Erdoğan's statements on the plane not only laid out the parameters of the Tal Rifaat and Manbij operations, but also signaled a reconciliation with Assad in the direction indicated by Putin. For quite some time now, Putin has been preparing Erdoğan mentally, spiritually and intellectually for a meeting with Assad. When Erdoğan expressed the road map envisioned by Putin, he clearly pointed out that intelligence diplomacy was already in operation and said:

"Putin expresses that he will be with us in the fight against terrorism. He hints at this; 'It would be much more accurate if you prefer to solve these together with the regime as much as possible'. We say that our intelligence organization is already working on these issues with Syrian intelligence, but the whole point is to get results." (1)

This is the truth. But Putin clearly told Erdogan: "I will continue with Assad, I know the situation on the ground is difficult, please show me some understanding." But how was this going to happen? Let's forget everything else, first of all, how would this situation be reflected on the ground? Is it that easy? Let's not forget that there is a 'war within a war' in Syria, so how will this complicated situation be reflected on the table? First of all, let's say that the name of this situation on the table is anger and the delusion that the plug has been pulled on the organizations on the ground. For this reason, demonstrations against Turkey were organized in 33 places in the safe zone in southern Syria under the slogan "We will not compromise". Turkish flags were burned and Turkish military vehicles were stoned. 

Turkey showed great prudence and moderation against these provocative actions, recalling its support for the solution effort within the framework of the unanimous UN Security Council Resolution 2254 adopted on December 18, 2015 and declaring to the whole world again that there was no deviation from its line.

In short, the resolution calls for an immediate ceasefire in Syria and a political solution in the country. Turkey, clearly aware that all eyes were focused on it, acted with prudence and did not lose its clairvoyance. Why? Because while prudence is a perception achieved through contemplation and prudence, prudence is the ability to instantly and very quickly decide and find the right decision and truth due to the skill gained in this field. Turkey is prudent, vigilant and has the right vision, especially in its Syria policy. It has a state system based on merit and competence.

But let's not refrain from saying this. Let's put it simply, it is indeed "hard work." This phrase indicates a state of being fed up with the work or the mission undertaken, but it does not mean 'giving up', let me inform you. It is a description first used by Nazım Hikmet. He said, "Prison is a difficult craft", describing the conditions of imprisonment.  Yes, Dear Readers, believe me, this is how hard it is, this is how hard it is to get Syria back on track.

But what about these questions that need to be answered? It is clear that a new process will start with Damascus, but how will Ankara-Damascus dialog be established? Let's put it simply, contact with the Damascus administration has never been abandoned. The contact between 'MIT' and the Syrian intelligence organization 'Mukhabarat' has been going on, and it has to go on. But under what conditions can political dialog with Syria begin? This is the question. How will the ground for reconciliation be established without compromise? Two weeks after Sochi, on August 18, 2022, on the plane back to Ukraine, President Erdoğan answered this question again in a succinct manner:

"There is even a saying: 'Do not break the bond even if it is with a thread, let that bond continue."

Commenting on the possibility of renewed talks with Syria, Erdoğan said that political dialogue or diplomacy between states can never be cut off and added: "There will always be such dialogues at any time, there should be such dialogues. Maybe the next process will be much better." (2)

Let's go step by step, if you like. The most important question to be answered is: First of all, "Can the Damascus government and the opposition reconcile? Let me remind you that reconciliation is not only with the Syrian National Army. So where are you going to place the opponents of the peace process in Idlib, where are you going to assemble them? You need to find a place in Syria, that's why I'm saying this. What the US, Assad and Putin have in mind is to push and chase Idlib towards Turkey. To make not only Turkey's refugee burden but also the terrorist threat unmanageable. Even creating ISIS-free zones in the south to prevent Turkey's exit to the Middle East.

By the way, let's say that while the regime forces return to the east of the Euphrates, they also strongly want the armed forces of the Syrian PeKaKa to be left in the region as an arm of the regime army as conditions mature. What does this mean? That is to say: "They dream of integrating the armed forces of the Syrian extension of the PeKaKa, which holds one third of Syria's territory, into the regime's army." First of all, let us say that structures that are organized and motivated behind closed doors should be avoided immediately. It is not possible for Turkey to be at peace with this idea.

So, what should be the conditions for shaking hands with Assad or the road map for a political solution in Syria? First of all, let us say that the "Sochi Memorandum" directly dictates the planning guidelines for the dialogue between Ankara and Damascus, without getting into the debate on whether or not to engage with Damascus. The perception that the opposition in Turkey is now trying to put forward that "they couldn't defeat the regime forces on the ground, so now they are bringing them to the table" is purely an electoral deception. This situation is being discussed on such false grounds that it is not even known who founded the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Let us say right away that the FSA is a studio project of the US for the region, just like ISIS, the tool of marginalization. The Free Syrian Army was founded in the summer of 2011, when peaceful protests in Syria started to turn into armed clashes, by seven officers in the Syrian army, just like the "Free Officers Movement" (Movement aḍ-Dubbāṭ al-ʾAḥrār), which led the coup in Egypt on July 23, 1952.

The founding of the organization was announced in late July in a video posted on YouTube. The FSA, led by Colonel Riad al-Assad, declared its purpose as "working with the people to overthrow the system and protect the people against the armed killing machines of the system". It was included in the Partnership for Peace (PfP) project by the US and was given flesh and bones through the "Train and Donate" program. The FSA was formed against ISIS on the one hand and against Assad, that is, the current government in Syria, on the other. The establishment of the FSA was supported by Turkey, as it was placed under the cover of the US and NATO.

The FSA has been presented to the world public opinion as a "more moderate and stronger alternative" to the jihadist groups in Syria, whose numbers and effectiveness have been increasing. For this reason, the FSA and many groups under its umbrella have been characterized as "opposition" or "moderate opposition groups" by both Western states and international media. Some of the groups fighting under the umbrella of the FSA have collaborated with jihadist organizations or transformed into jihadist organizations under different names over time.

Within the scope of the "Train and Equip" program initiated by the US in 2013, it was announced that fighters affiliated with the FSA received training and arms aid in the first phase. Within the scope of the "Train-and-Donate" program launched by the US in 2013, it was initially announced that fighters affiliated with the FSA also received training and arms aid. However, later in 2014, when the US adjusted the program to prioritize the groups fighting ISIS, the People's Protection Units (YPG), the armed wing of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), formed by the Syrian PeKaKaKa in the north of Syria, started to receive support.

In an interview with Yeni Şafak newspaper in September 2016, al-Assad, the first leader of the FSA, claimed that under the US program, only "54 opposition fighters received weapons training, while 8,000 PYD/PKK terrorists were turned into professional soldiers." (3)

By the way, let's not forget France, which feeds on the crisis and wants to benefit from it as in Libya. France was also involved in this joint work. It too left behind the US, leaving Turkey on its own. In order to put Turkey in a stalemate in every way, the 'No Fly Zones' on the security zones implemented in Iraq were deliberately not declared in Syria and the operations that Turkey had to carry out were made dependent on the RF and the USA. In international relations, the principle of "Pacta Sunt Servanda" (Pacta Sunt Servanda) is essential, not direct sanctions. This principle is indeed an indispensable and inevitable rule of the Law of Treaties, which is effective in the formation of the rules of international law and which exists in the constitution of the state and authorizes the state to make treaties. The binding nature of this rule is based on the principle of good faith.

Yes, after all, the road map should be based on the principle of "ehemmi mühime". What needs to be done is "ehem majimme müreccah", the most important must be preferred over the important. The knife is to the bone. As stated in almost every way at the moment, an operation in northern Syria, especially in the Tel Rifat region, must be carried out immediately against the increasing terrorist attacks on Turkey. Since the conditions have matured in this context, Articles 6 and 7 of the 'Sochi Memorandum' reached with Moscow in 2019 clearly allow this operation to be carried out. "Article 6- All YPG elements will be removed from Manbij and Tel Rifaat together with their weapons. Article 7 states that "Both sides will take the necessary measures to prevent infiltration of terrorist elements..." (4)

Yes, dear readers, the first step is to carry out the "Tel Rifat and Manbij Operation" immediately. For a long time, Russia has been giving the green light for point operations targeting the leaders of the Syrian PeKaKaKa and these operations are being carried out without delay.  Another is that Russia has tacitly promised to neutralize rocket launchers threatening Turkish forces from Tel Rifaat, north of Aleppo. However, it is important to note that a joint operation with the Damascus regime forces on the Syrian Peninsula cannot be carried out under any circumstances. Let us not forget that the main backbone of the upcoming "Tel Rifat and Manbij Operation" is the "Syrian National Army", and what is to be done is a kind of "War of Kuva-yili Milliye".

Footnotes:

(1) Fehim Taştekin, “Alooo Esed, pardon Esad. Kardeşimmm!” Gazete Duvar, 11 Ağustos 2022; https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/alooo-esed-pardon-esad-kardesimmm-makale-1576921/Erişim Tarihi 21.08.2022/

(2) Ferhat Erdemir, “Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'dan Suriye mesajı: Devletler arası diplomasi kesip atılamaz” TGRT Haber, 19.08.2022 https://www.tgrthaber.com.tr/politika/erdogan-gundemi-degerlendirdi-2843460/erişim Tarihi 21.08.2022/

(3) Özgür Suriye Ordusu Nedir: 2011'den 2018'e Örgütün Yaşadığı Dönüşüm, 30 Ocak 2018; https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-42862756/Erişim tarihi 21.08.2022/

(4) Muharrem Sarıkaya, “Şam ile ortak operasyon yok…” Habertürk, 17.08.2022;   https://www.haberturk.com/yazarlar/muharrem-sarikaya/3512842-sam-ile-ortak-operasyon-yok/Erişim tarihi 21.08.2022/