Could the Austrian Model be a Solution for Ukraine?
On the Naming of 'Turkey':
Just like “papel” in Ladino Spanish, “cukka” and “cukkacılık” are one of the words used for money in the Gypsy language. You've probably heard the phrase "cukka is solid" by pointing fingers at rich people. It is said that "turkey" was one of the first gifts in the Ottoman state life. Maybe that's why the West has adopted "Turkey", which means turkey for Turkey until today. As you know, during the Ottoman Empire, poor villagers used to bring a turkey with their feet tied as the greatest gift to the "homos officer" group to get their work done. Because the officer has the seal of the sheriff, the seal of Solomon in his hands. Solomon is whoever has the seal before my people. How accurate is that. Incidentally, we should say that the seal of Süleyman is a mystical term. In Kabbalah, it is told that two triangles reflect the struggles within people: good / evil, spiritual / material, etc., in fact this is nothing but Manicheanism. In other words, the dualistic approach is dualism. According to another view, the triangle pointing up may represent our good deeds that will go to heaven, and the triangle pointing downward may represent the wave of goodness that these good deeds will activate and bring to the world.
Phrase to Take Cukka:
In the Ottoman era, in the sense of ministries, in short, the sounds of 'cukk cukk...' turkeys were heard under the tables in public buildings. For this reason, those who won a turkey from the seal were traditionally said to have taken the cukka. I adore this sawmill, finishing literature. There may be some people who think that it is a little runny and watery, but there is a phrase called "don't sit down", you can't replace it, there is no other option for such a beautiful narrative. This is a bit of neighborhood, neighborhood literature.
In my opinion, this term even found its place in the theories of international relations. Now let me ask you how many birds did the USA kill with one stone, you say, this is about Ukraine. A lot in my opinion. As you know, Putin did not directly challenge Ukraine, or even addressed it. The addressee was the USA directly. The policy of both the RF and the PRC against the West and the USA is not only related to the Ukraine, Caucasus, Kashmir, East Turkestan and Taiwan factor, but also to the Military Alliance of the USA, England and Australia (AUKUS) established in the Pacific and Asian region. AUKUS is a "Nuclear Submarine Pact" as well as a military alliance treaty. The balances in the world, especially in the Pacific, and the "Nuclear Retaliation" by defiance This treaty, which made France French, also affected the normal nuclear weapons policy. France, who claims to have been 'stabbed in the back' with the new security agreement between the USA-England-Australia, has also referred to US President Biden as Trump. Why is that? With an agreement signed with France in 2016, Australia withdrew from the construction of 12 submarines for 50 billion Australian dollars. (1)
So, France has been from this money. In fact, it is a well-known fact that France is hesitant about whether to side with Russia in the Ukraine War. It is an option for him to be with Putin against the USA and with reference to the investments of the French TOTAL in Russia. How contradictory and absurd. Seeing this hypocrisy of Macron, Putin therefore put the long seesaw on the table, adjusted and sent it.
Sanctions on Russia:
In my opinion, the blood and tears dominated war wouldn't have even started, if the US and RF hadn't encouraged it. Preventing war was on Biden's lips. It was enough for Biden to say that the USA and RF were against, and that we will not include Ukraine in NATO, Russia would have calmed down. But he didn't. As he did not say, he encouraged the RF since the annexation of Crimea, and continued to encourage it. With the war, Ukraine continued to burn and collapse, women and children continued to die, it does not matter anymore for the USA whether the RF invades Ukraine or not... Unfortunately, the Ukrainian people were sacrificed to gods. The USA got what it wanted. The RF-EU convergence was averted. Years of discord and hatred were sown between the friendly and brotherly Ukrainian and Russian people and the RF-EU. The USA reinforced, strengthened and consolidated NATO under its command. Under the European Security Defense Identity and Architecture and under the EU's PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation), it was prevented from forming an army. The EU was compelled to buy weapons, tools, equipment and equipment from the USA. The petro-dollar started to gain strength again. The euro began to melt against the US dollar. While SWIFT was applied to RF, oil and gas began to be sold at twice the price. The cotton-to-pocket policy against the EU, which was hesitant to even pay the NATO funds, was imposed in all the gatherings. In the words of Mao Tsetung, the “Paper Tiger” USA finished all of this without firing a single shot, and continues to do so.
The Impact of Turkish Politics:
Let's come to Turkey. After nationalizing its defense domestically, Turkey has evolved to become a regional power. However, as a regional power, Turkey has drawn a new mission for itself. In my opinion, it is a very correct approach. To work and strive hard to achieve peace. Since the 1945 Yalta Conference, it has always adopted the right to be on the side of the oppressed, not on the side of the strong. Can we have something to say to this? We can't have any words or words. The word lafz, as we have just said, means a meaningful or meaningless word that comes out of the mouth. A feast of thought and ideas, where Turkey is now undressing and raising the bar with the Antalya Democracy Forum. Undoubtedly, it is beautiful, moderation and mediation are good, but furthermore it seems a bit “blurry”, grayish, even dark. Say what? Being directly involved in the war, in my opinion, is tantamount to risking the future of the country. Like, it seems to me. The steps to be taken, the beginning of new troubles to be opened are the blood of Turkish soldiers. Once you're in, like drug addiction, you can't cut it out. For this reason, it is necessary to think carefully about the end of the steps you will take. Why am I saying this? Dear readers, since the current situation of Ukraine is similar to the Austrian State Treaty of 1955, which ended the 10-year occupation of Russia after the Second World War, it overlaps with each other.
As you know, the First World War, also known as the "Great War", had ended the empires, except for the British Empire, which was the land where the sun never set. The plug of the German, Austro-Hungarian Empires and the Ottoman Empire was pulled. Of course, the dynasties had ended in the meantime, the German Hohenzollern, Austrian Habsburg and Ahl-i Osman families had to withdraw from the political scene. By the way, let's say that in 1917, the famous Romanov dynasty also vanished into history. When the Czechs and Serbo-Croat-Slovenes, who were within the political framework of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, started their independence movements in 1918, the empire began to shake when the economic difficulties of the country were added. Emperor II, who died on November 21, 1916. Karl, who succeeded Joseph, tried to appease the demands for independence by promising the establishment of a federal system, but to no avail. After the provisional government established by the Czechs in Paris on October 18, 1918 declared the independence of Czechoslovakia, the Hungarians also declared that they established an independent state on October 24. It was seen that no power could stand before nation-states. Thus, it became impossible for the empire, which was in the process of disintegration, to continue the war, and there was no other option but a ceasefire, an armistice.
Thereupon, Emperor Karl's signing of an armistice with the Italians at Villa Gusti on November 3, 1918 further accelerated the disintegration of the empire. After the declaration of the establishment of Czechoslovakia in Prague on 29 October and the Serbian-Croat-Slovene (Yugoslavia) State in Zagreb, the Austrian Germans established the Republic of Austria on 30 October. (2nd)
Establishment of Austria:
The founding element of today's Austria, the core-state, was the Germans. Then, when the Hungarian Republic was proclaimed in November, Emperor Karl was dethroned. When the emperor announced that he was withdrawing from state affairs on November 18, the dynasty disappeared with the empire. After the Great War, Austria signed the Peace Treaty of Saint-Germain with the Allies on September 10, 1919. According to this treaty, Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia recognized the independence, agreed not to unite with Germany without the approval of the League of Nations, to abolish compulsory military service and to limit the army to 30,000 people.
After Hitler came to power in Germany, he turned to pressure to realize the annexation of Austria through peaceful means and invited the Austrian Chancellor K. Schuschnigg to his country and gave him a seven-point ultimatum. In desperation, the Austrian chancellor had to accept Hitler's request that the leader of the Austrian Nazis, Seyss-Inquart, be appointed interior minister. Schuschnigg's announcement that a plebiscite would be held on 13 March 1938 to determine whether the people wanted annexation when he returned to his country directed Hitler to military intervention, and on 11 March, Hitler demanded the withdrawal of the chancellor and the appointment of Seyss-Inquart in his place. In desperation, Schuschnigg yielded to Hitler's request, and President Wilhelm Miklas appointed Seyss-Inquart as chancellor. Of course, by the way, the German armies also occupied the country by crossing the Austrian border at this time. On 12 March, Austria came under German occupation and became a new province of Germany (III. Reich) under the name of Ostmark.
Austria after the Second World War:
The Hunt, which was occupied by Germany from 1938 to 1945 After the Soviet armies entered Vienna in April 1945 in Austria, the republic was re-established on April 27, 1945 and the organization of political parties was allowed. The political life of Austria, which was under the control of the allied states (United States of America, Soviet Union, England and France) from 1945 to 1955, was dominated by the Socialist Party (Socialistische Partei Österreichs) and the People's Party (Österreiche Volkspartei). This can be called a kind of dualist system. After the economic crisis in the country between 1946-1952, heavy industry and banking sectors were nationalized. This is what development is, there is no development without nationalization. Receiving assistance from the Marshall Plan put into effect by the USA and the United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Administration (UNRRA), Austria started to realize its development moves.
Austrian Model:
After 1953, thanks to the market economy implemented by the chancellor J. Raab, the economy was on the way to recovery and a great development move was carried out. With the State Treaty (Staatsvertrag) signed with the four allied states that won the Second World War in Vienna on May 15, 1955, it was decided to remain neutral between the eastern and western blocs in the foreign policy of Austria, on the line of permanent neutrality. In addition, the treaty prohibited Austria from entering any political and military pact, forming a political and economic union with Germany, the return of the Habsburgs and the establishment of Nazi organizations. After the signing of this treaty, the occupation forces left the country in October 1955 and the principle of permanent neutrality was made a constitutional provision. As a natural result of this, Austria joined the European Union but could not join NATO. Why did I explain this in detail, dear readers, because Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, also suggested that Ukraine could have a neutral status like Austria and Sweden. Russia has made this a warm recommendation because it has 10 years of Austrian experience from 1945 to 1955. For 67 years Austria has maintained the status of a neutral state. The West is therefore almost in agreement on a solution for Ukraine. The "Austrian model" seems to be the best solution. In other words, the Russian army will withdraw, while Ukraine will undertake to remain neutral, especially not to join NATO. This is considered to be the best formula for Ukraine as well.
Warranty Application:
While the war in Ukraine, which is approaching a month, continues, the British Financial Times newspaper wrote that the West did not take kindly to Ukraine's request that a number of countries, including Turkey, be included as guarantors in a possible ceasefire agreement, on the grounds that "This will put us in the war". (3)
Is this approach correct? I think it is true. Now let's look at the analysis of this proposal from a real-political point of view. It is indispensable to fulfill the duty it has taken in the state tradition of the Republic of Turkey, which is inherited from the Ottoman Empire, and to stand by your promise. When Turkey takes charge in Ukraine as a "guarantor", the size of the business suddenly changes and becomes serious. Turkish state tradition makes it a duty to protect and watch the implementation of the treaty. Let's say Russia attacks again or Ukraine is defeated by NATO... You have to intervene! Just like in Cyprus. Even if the other guarantors do not move a hair, you cannot remain silent as England did in Cyprus. (4)
Conclusion:
Yes, this is exactly the case, here is the place where the tail of the calf is cut off and the clarion rattles. This is the most important, demanding and vital part of this business, dear readers. According to the Financial Times, Ukraine demands security guarantees against a possible future attack from the permanent members of the UN Security Council Russia, the USA, the UK, France and China, as well as from Turkey and Germany, for a ceasefire. An official with knowledge of the ceasefire negotiations pointed out that this request by Ukraine, which is not a member of the alliance, was a security guarantee similar to NATO's Article 5, which states that “an armed attack on one member shall be treated as an attack on all”. What does that mean? Just like in Cyprus, it also necessitates a military intervention option. No need for comment. So I don't think any more words are needed. I say Turkey should avoid this option, stay away, dear readers.
footnotes
(1)Sputniknews, France: We were stabbed in the back, 16.09.2021 ; https://tr.sputniknews.com/20210916/france-aukusa-tepkili-sirtimizdan-bicaklandik-1048952992.html/ Accessed 20.03.2022/
(2) https://islamancyclopedisi.org.tr/avusturya/Access Date 20.03.2022/
(3) Cumhuriyet, 'Turkey' detail in the Financial Times' analysis: 'West is distant to Ukraine's 'guarantor country' demand', 18.03.2022; https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/dunya/financial-timesin-analizinde-turkiye-ayrintisi-bati-ukraynanin-garantor-ulke-talebine-mesafeli-1917172/ Access Date 20.03.2022/
(4) Engin Ardıç, You Will Be At War If You Need To, Sabah Newspaper, 19 March 2022; https://www.sabah.com.tr/yazarlar/ardic/2022/03/19/icabinda-savasa-girersin/ Access Date 20.03.2022/
