Does the Kiev-Moscow Line pass through Ankara?

The frequency of news in the Western world that the possibility of Russia's invasion of Ukraine has increased in recent days draws attention. Everyone expresses the difficulty of predicting where and how a possible Russian operation against the Donbas and its environs, if not Ukraine, will end. Ukraine, whose lands are facing Russian occupation, is not considered as an interlocutor. In fact, only Moscow, perhaps only Putin, is following a policy of war that ignores Ukraine. Taking Biden as his interlocutor, Putin; He displayed an attitude that did not want to discuss the Ukraine issue even with Macron, the leader of the French, who had forced Moscow's doors for a while.

Despite all the time that has passed, diplomatic channels are being kept open, trying to understand what Russia is really aiming for. It is not yet known whether Ukraine is facing a military move or whether Moscow is building power to force the West to accept its demands. There remains a state of complete uncertainty.

In this environment of uncertainty, the Russians; In order to carry out a large-scale exercise with Belarus, he has massed his troops on the territory of this country. According to some commentators, Russia has embarked on this large-scale "drill" activity to open a second front towards Ukraine via Belarus.

In the Western world, total weapon aid to Ukraine, albeit weak, continues. Especially the Baltic countries and Poland have no intention of leaving Ukraine alone. There is no sound from Romania and Bulgaria, but the American military build-up in these countries has started to increase.

On the other hand, NATO allies, especially the US administration, take a determined stance. NATO continues to raise the issue of sanctions to be applied against Russia when necessary. However, the Western world has built its priority on developing a diplomatic solution. In the contacts with Moscow, the principles of territorial integrity, sovereignty and mutual respect for agreements are highlighted, and it is stated that Russia's approach to protecting its spheres of influence is partially positive, and it is underlined that Russian expansionism aiming at re-expansion will not be accepted by the West.

Recently, Biden-Putin had a 62-minute meeting. However, this meeting did not yield any significant results. Biden reiterated his clichéd phrase "If you invade, you will pay heavily". In any case, the US president is trying to prevent a Russian attack on Ukraine at the last minute. Washington read the increasing Russian mobilizations on the Ukrainian border as "war begins" and demanded that its diplomats in Kiev leave Ukraine.

After a possible Russian attack, the United States is considering taking steps to block Russia's access to the US dollar, within the scope of economic sanctions. The central importance of the dollar in global financial transactions strengthens the US hand. Russia, on the other hand, keeps more than $600 billion in its treasury as a reserve and calculates that it can withstand possible American sanctions for a long time. Still, the "dollar sanction" is expected to disrupt the daily activities of Russian citizens and Russian companies. The effect of this on the Russian government cannot be fully predicted. According to assertive comments, such a sanction could pave the way for an opposition movement to gain power that will replace Putin's government.

In order to stop Russia from the very beginning and prevent it from launching an operation against Ukraine, the Republicans want to impose dollar sanctions and a decision that will not allow the second gas pipeline (North Stream 2) between Germany and Russia to come into operation. However, Democrats find it better to wait for the "invasion" of Ukraine to initiate these sanctions. However, Biden announced at a joint press conference with the new German chancellor, Olaf Schultz, that in the event of a Russian invasion, the Nord Stream 2 project would be terminated. Although Berlin did not want to, in terms of timing, it seems that it did not find it right to contradict Washington because of this issue.

The Biden administration is also considering extending its ban on US financial institutions (not buying government bonds) last year. The White House also plans to turn exports to Russia into a controlled mechanism and is considering adding Russia to the list of "controlled" countries such as Cuba, North Korea and Iran. It is calculated that such a sanction may force the Russian industry in a wide variety of fields, from aviation to the smartphone industry, and a chip shortage may arise in the Russian market in the first place.

FED decisions are also considered important in this sense, whether there is an invasion of Ukraine or not. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by half a point in early March. In fact, it is said that an interest rate hike in February is among the plans of the FED, even before March arrives. FED, trying to fight inflation, 

calls are closer to receiving. Although there is no problem in the wheels of the global economy at the moment, the increase in the readings about the possibility of a "stable" scenario in the near term makes interest rate hikes necessary for the FED. Along with other sanctions, especially for developing countries, the negative effects of this on the Russian economy are expected to be significant.

The inflationary pressure in the global economy has begun to change all balances. Recently, Ankara, which has been trying to repair its fragile economy, is also dealing with the negative repercussions of the Turkish-American relationship, which has yet to show any signs of recovery. Meanwhile, if the Russians enter Ukraine, the balance in the Black Sea will be completely shaken. Turkey, which has caught an increasing curve in its foreign trade with the Russians, especially natural gas, is advancing on a different route from the Russians in many issues, including not accepting the annexation of Crimea politically. Naturally, Turkey's interests and Russia's interests do not coincide. Still, Turkey continues to experience ebbs and flows between its Western allies and Russia.

Turkey, which is closely interested in Ukraine, is making an effort to establish a cooperation based on a win-win relationship with this country in the field of defense industry. Russian entry into Ukraine is the last thing Turkey would want. Ankara has always taken a stance expressing that it expects Ukraine's territorial integrity to be respected. The “closeness” between Putin and Erdogan does not mean that Erdogan will no doubt stay “away” from Putin on Ukraine.

On the other hand, a possible invasion of Ukraine could play a destabilizing role in the Black Sea. If NATO attempts to project a possible power into the Black Sea, it may cause Turkey, including Montreux, to be caught between the Russians and NATO. If Turkey acts together with NATO; Because of its dependence on Russian gas, it may have to face Russian gas shortages. In trade with the Russians and in the tourism sector, Turkey could suffer huge financial losses. Being perceived as the "ally" of a Turkey that will not side with NATO, or as a Turkey that has closed the Black Sea to NATO forces, may cause Ankara's policies to be questioned in the Western world. The good thing about these adversity scenarios is that because of Ukraine, the possibility of a NATO counterattack is negligible.

Continuing his contacts with Putin, Erdoğan also visited Kiev on February 3, 2021. Even though it was like an ordinary foreign trip, Erdogan tried to boost the morale of the Ukrainian administration during this visit and indirectly showed Kiev and Moscow that he was acting together with NATO. Meanwhile, the $10 billion free trade agreement and other agreements; He pointed out that the contacts on the Kiev-Ankara line were productive. After this trip, Erdogan's illness delayed the potential role Ankara could play in a possible mediation traffic between Kiev and Moscow. In the near term, if Putin indirectly accepts Zelensky as his interlocutor, it would be a good move for the parties to "talk" through Erdogan. If this situation occurs, Turkey will fulfill a key function in the possible winds of peace between the two countries and will be able to make an important contribution to the peace in the region. The close personal relationship between Erdogan and Putin can give Erdogan a playing field to cool the crisis. If Turkey succeeds in this; Since it will be seen as a country that surpasses Europe in terms of its regional influence, a restorative output can also be obtained in the Turkish-American relationship.