Footsteps of Change in the World

Interesting developments are taking place in the Caucasus, the Balkans, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, which have been a tangle of problems for decades. 

The region that Mackinder said must be controlled in order to dominate the world was Russia and Eastern Europe. In this region and its immediate neighbourhood, where the Ukraine-Russia war is taking place today, the Germany-Russia struggle took place, the most important battles of the Second World War took place in this region, which Mackinder called the heartland, and in the end, communism and capitalism hand in hand destroyed Nazism and Fascism.

The Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Caucasus region, which Mackinder considered as a secondary area, was emphasised by another theorist, Spykman, and the idea was put forward that whoever controls this region will dominate the world.

We need to analyse the recent developments in this region, which Spykman claims that whoever controls this region will dominate the world. 

In the bipolar world order during the Cold War and in the unipolar world order immediately afterwards, the secondary powers, backed by those who seized the main power, resorted to all kinds of unjust, unlawful and unjust occupations. 

The intention to annex Cyprus to Greece through Enosis and Israel's occupation of Palestine in the 60s and 70s of the 20th century, and the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia in the 90s are examples of such unjust and unlawful occupations. 

Turkey, to the extent of its power in the 70s, was able to stop the imperialist expansion in Cyprus and brought peace to the island with its peace operation. Until then, due to the chaotic environment, this island of crisis, where people from both sides, mostly from the Turkish side, lived in the face of death every day due to the chaotic environment, was transformed into a peaceful island that could be peaceful even if it was separated, livable even if it was weakened, and livable even if it was divided. Afterwards, all negotiations for a federation-based solution unfortunately remained fruitless. The fact that the EU made the Greek Cypriot side a member in violation of both its own acquis and the Constitution of Cyprus, that the Turkish side was penalised despite saying yes to the Annan plan, and that the negotiations could not progress due to the Greek Cypriots' uncompromising attitude showed that it is no longer possible to achieve results with policies in favour of a federative solution. This behaviour of the Greeks, who have been seeing non-solution as a solution for years and who cannot see the Turkish side as an equal, has caused disgust on the Turkish side. 

The opening of a part of Varosha, albeit a small part, against the Greek political mentality that makes non-solution a solution, is an indication to the Greek side and the world that a transition to a new political understanding has been made. Varosha was a region that was planned to be given to the Greek side in a possible solution and even left to the Greeks in the Annan plan; when there was no progress in the federative solution, it was decided to open it with the unilateral will of the TRNC and Turkey. 

Of course, it is not the entire Varosha area that was opened, but a small area on the coast. In particular, there is no opening in areas with disputed ownership. What is important here is that the Turkish side has started to show its policy change in some applications.

The signing of the EEZ protocol with Libya in the Eastern Mediterranean, which is a very important step, albeit late, and the opening of Varosha, which is also late, are indicators of Turkey's return to proactive policies in the region. 

Armenia is another manifestation of the Greek Cypriot side's spoilt behaviour supported by Greece and the EU. In the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which it has occupied for years, its attack on Azerbaijan with the support of the US and the West, which it thought was behind it, backfired, and as it lost the territories it occupied, it started to beg for help from left and right. Despite the relative weakening of Armenia, which occupied Karabakh by taking advantage of Azerbaijan's weakness, Armenia's desire to continue its bully policies has given Azerbaijan the chance to save Karabakh. Armenia, which did not receive the desired level of support from Russia and Iran, had to pay for its misstep by having to leave the occupied territories.

As can be seen, the region, which Spykman claims that whoever dominates will dominate the world, is boiling over. Kosovo-Serbia in the west, Ukraine-Russia in the north, Azerbaijan-Armenia in the east, Syria and Israel-Palestine in the south and Turkey in the centre of it all. 

The region is going through a very important process. As the balance of power changes in the spirit of the times, conflicts are increasing in the unjust and unlawfully acquired regions, and all oppressed nations and societies are increasing their efforts to get what they deserve.

Another issue to be considered in the Israeli-Palestinian crisis is the interesting situation of Israel's inability or inability to stop Hamas' attacks. 

It is as if Putin and Hamas are being played the same game. It is hard not to agree with what Dr Omer Turan writes below.

"The Palestinians cross the Israeli border almost in slippers, raid Israeli military bases, capture many Israeli soldiers, including generals, kill dozens of soldiers, enter Israel in dozens of pick-up trucks, raid Israeli cities, kill Israeli civilians. They destroyed Merkava tanks and captured dozens of armoured vehicles. 

Things that we would not believe if we saw them in our dreams are happening in reality. While all this is happening, there is no response from Israel, the Iron Dome does not work, the attacks are only watched.

But is this normal? Of course not. The Hamas attack is the poisoned apple that Israel has authorised. This is Israel's Pearl Harbour, this is Israel's 11 September. Through this attack, Israel will first convince its own public opinion, and then the western public opinion, especially the US, to attack Iran.

What will happen then? What the US did after 11 September, Israel-US will do the same now. First, they will strike Palestinian groups in an unprecedented way. Then they will destroy Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria and Lebanon, the Syrian regime will not be able to recover, it will collapse. The Lebanese Hezbollah will be crushed. 

Israel will then strike Iran with the US and the Gulf states. The plans are ready. They will hit all Iran's nuclear and military facilities. The mullah regime in Iran will collapse at the end of the process.

The Islamists are now shouting for joy, but they have fallen into such a trap that by the time they realise it, it will be too late. What was done to Putin in Ukraine was done to Iran and the Islamists in Israel. 

The saddest thing is that when we feel sorry for the Palestinian civilians who will die in Israeli attacks, when we defend them, we will be told that Israeli civilians are not human beings and we will have nothing to say."

Yes, it is clear that in the coming period, Israel, together with its allies, will bring the entire Middle East to its feet. It is likely that the tension in the region will further increase and the stones will be moved. Turkey has to be careful and sensitive. A mediation activity similar to the one in the Russia-Ukraine war can also be applied in the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. Turkey is one of the most likely countries that has relations with both sides and is capable of mediation. Within the Western alliance, it is difficult for Turkey to pursue a completely anti-Israel policy. Turkey's call for restraint is important, but at least for a certain period of time, Israel will not give its consent to this call until it has given the necessary response to ease its internal dynamics. 

What should not be forgotten is the fact that Turkey's main foreign policy is based on the founding philosophy of peace at home, peace in the world, and acting together with those in favour of rights, law and justice, and with oppressed nations against imperialism.