How will the Ankara-London Line Work under the Starmer Government in the UK?

Labour Party won the July 4th general elections in the UK. Following the elections, the Conservative Party, which has been in power since 2010, lost its majority in the parliament and Labour Party became the new owner of power in the country as expected. From now on, Keir Starmer will be the Prime Minister of the UK. In his first public speech, Starmer said, "Our country voted for change. We will govern the country as a changed Labour Party." While he promised, how the Starmer government will shape the future of England is eagerly awaited not only by the British but also by the whole world.

How Are Elections Conducted in the UK?

Narrow district election system is applied in England. In 650 electoral districts, the candidate with the highest number of votes is elected as an MP. In order for a party to obtain the majority in the House of Commons, it must have at least 326 deputies. The leader of the party with the highest number of MPs is elected prime minister and appointed by the King to form the government. The leader of the party in second place becomes the main opposition leader.

Winning 410 seats, the Labour Party had the majority in the 650-member House of Commons of the British Parliament. Rishi Sunak, the leader of the Conservative Party, was able to reach only 119 MPs.

The vote rates of the 5 parties with the highest number of votes across the country were Labour Party 33.7%, Conservative Party 23.7%, Reform UK Party 14.3%, Liberal Democratic Party 12.2% and Green Party 6.8%. Compared to the election 5 years ago, the right-wing Reform UK Party increased its votes by more than 12 per cent. The party increased its vote rate from 2 per cent to 14.3 per cent and gained 5 MPs.

This rate was more than 4 per cent for the Green Party. In addition to the collapse in the Conservative Party, the party's electoral success was also influenced by the 17 per cent increase in its votes in Scotland. While the Conservative Party left behind the election in which it had the fewest number of MPs in its history, the Liberal Democratic Party had the highest number of MPs since 1923.

What is the UK's problem with immigrants and asylum seekers?

Nigel Farage, the leader of the Party, who went to the elections with promises such as freezing unnecessary immigration to the UK; achieving the goal of "Net Zero Immigration"; leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and making the tax system simpler, was elected as an MP, and I read the fact that Trump, the presidential candidate of the Republicans in the USA, called and congratulated him as a sign that in the future there will be a Reform UK Party rather than the Conservative Party for the Republicans on the US-UK axis.

In the UK, especially in low-income neighbourhoods, immigrants are seen as the cause of economic difficulties. Anti-immigration is fuelled by politicians. Immigrants predominantly work in the service and health sector. In fact, the majority of drivers are made up of people who came from other countries and started to live in England. The Conservative Party was trying to put an upper limit on legal immigration and to send some asylum seekers who entered the country illegally to the East African country of Rwanda. Labour came to power promising to limit immigration and declaring its opposition to the Rwanda plan. Farage's difference is shown as reducing net migration (the difference between those coming to the country and those leaving the country) to zero in the UK. Net migration, which was 245 thousand in 2016, increased to 745 thousand in 2022. This situation is criticised by many British citizens and the anti-immigrant sentiment in the country seems to be reflected in voting preferences. For this reason, the Starmer Government is expected to implement a stricter immigration policy than Sunak.

Muslim Citizens of Britain Did Not Support the Labour Party?

According to the election results, in the regions where Muslims are in the majority, the Labour Party could not achieve the great success it achieved throughout the country. According to the surveys conducted before the elections, it was almost certain that the Labour Party would win. Nevertheless, the Muslim communities living in England did not want to support Starmer and his party. The pro-Israeli stance of the Labour Party and its leader Starmer against Palestine regarding the ongoing war in Gaza did not escape the attention of the Muslim communities.

So much so that, for example, Jonathan Ashworth, a leading Labour politician in South Leicester, lost to Shockat Adam, an independent candidate who put Gaza at the centre of his campaign. In Leicester East, one of the areas with the largest Muslim population in the UK, it is quite significant that Labour's share of the vote dropped by 29 points.

Starmer's Cabinet and Possible Developments in Turkish-British Relations

In the Starmer cabinet, Angela Rayner became Deputy Prime Minister and Rachel Reeves became the first woman finance minister of the UK.

Under Tony Blair's government, close and good relations had been built between Turkey and Labour-led Britain. Starmer is expected to continue the strategic relationship recently established with Ankara. David Lammy, the new foreign minister of the UK, said during the election period that he sees Turkey as a developing country that is gradually increasing its weight in the region. Following his appointment as Labour Party Foreign Affairs Spokesperson in 2021, Lammy has described Turkey as "one of the most important countries in a changing world" in his speeches and articles. Turkey's growing influence and geopolitical developments suggest that intensive talks between Fidan and Lammy will continue. It is understood that the policy to be pursued by Lammy, who gives positive messages on the recognition of Palestine as a state, will make the UK more active in the Middle East.

The historic summit to be held in Washington between 9-11 July, which will also celebrate NATO's 75th anniversary, is also important for Starmer and Lammy as it will be their first major meeting with allied leaders. I also consider this summit important in terms of bringing Starmer and Erdoğan together.

Turkey and the UK launched a negotiation process on 14 March 2024 to prepare a comprehensive and modern free trade agreement aiming to further develop bilateral relations in the field of economy and trade after Brexit. Both countries aim to further increase the trade volume, which exceeded 19 billion dollars in 2023, and to continue this positive trend.

What to Expect from Healey, the New Boss of the British Army?

Meanwhile, the Labour Party, noting that its Middle East policy and approach to the global south would change, had emphasised in its pre-election manifesto that the NATO-centred Euro-Atlantic policy would continue to be the main pillar of its foreign policy. It is understood that Starmer, like his predecessor Sunak, will continue to take a strong stance in favour of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the new government of the UK is expected to sign new trade agreements and give a breathing space to the British economy in foreign trade.

It should be noted that the new UK Defence Minister John Healey promised to increase his country's support to Ukraine during his visit to Odesa less than 48 hours after taking office. This statement was read as proof that London's policy towards Kiev would not change.

On the eve of the election, the Labour Party promised to "set a course" to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP. However, the details of exactly when this might happen are not known. In line with this perspective, the new defence minister is expected to initiate a comprehensive review of global threats and the state of the British Army, as well as a new defence industrial strategy within the next 12 months.

Conclusion

Keir Starmer became the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after 5 July. The leader of the Labour Party won the elections and led his party to win the majority in the parliament. During the Starmer government period, the ongoing free trade agreement between Turkey and the UK is expected to be finalised and the trade volume is expected to increase further.

Although the current anti-immigration policy in the UK is not adopted by the Starmer government, it should be said that new measures to prevent irregular migration in this area will be put into effect by the new resident of 10 Down Street. Expectations are in this direction. However, the shelving of the Rwanda issue is also among the developments that may come into question.

The UK, which pioneered the establishment of NATO in 1949 together with the USA, advocates an increase in defence expenditures per country within the Alliance. It is claimed that if Starmer takes a step in this direction, he will increase his country's defence spending to 2.5%. The Starmer Government, which is expected to bring the British Army to a better position, is expected to support the Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet negotiations between Ankara and London during the Sunak period and to support Turkey in its tour to convince the consortium member countries (especially Germany) for the sale of at least 40 aircraft.