International Balances and a Roadmap for Turkey
For Turkey to become a truly global player, it must first implement radical reforms in certain domestic areas and resolve the issues that trigger internal vulnerabilities, thereby gaining the strategic leverage needed to strengthen its foreign policy.
What Are Turkey’s Priorities at a Time of Shifting Global Balances?
The effectiveness of Turkey’s foreign policy depends primarily on the success of its own economic, political, social and institutional transformation. For a strong foreign policy is the natural outcome of a strong domestic policy. In this context, we know that during periods when the international system is increasingly evolving into a multipolar structure and uncertainties are rising, Turkey has moved away from an adventurous foreign policy and adopted a balanced approach. On the other hand, domestic and foreign policy are not entirely independent spheres. In particular, since 2016, Turkey has been a country experiencing fluctuations in both its domestic and foreign policies. Domestic turmoil has become the primary factor affecting the consistency of Turkish foreign policy—or at the very least, shaping how other countries and nations view Turkey. The determinants of domestic politics are reflected externally, whilst successes or failures achieved abroad also influence the dynamics of domestic politics. It can be argued that for Turkey to fully transform into a global actor, it must first implement radical reforms in certain areas domestically and, by resolving the issues that trigger internal fragility, gain access to strategic levers that will strengthen its foreign policy.
The Turkish economy demonstrated growth of 3.6% in 2025, with per capita national income rising from $15,463 in 2024 to approach the $18,000 mark by the end of 2025. However, annual inflation stood at 32.37% in April 2026, continuing to act as a factor of uncertainty in the economic sphere. Similarly, the fact that the trade deficit rose to $37.12 billion between January and April 2026, reducing the ratio of exports to imports to 70.8%, is a cause for concern. Under these conditions, the multi-faceted roadmap Turkey must follow involves deepening a wide range of domestic economic reforms focused on combating inflation and improving the balance of trade, reducing the current account deficit to lower levels by increasing high-value-added production and exports, expanding the geographical diversity of exports to increasingly tap into African and Asian markets (in this context, Turkey’s Africa strategy, which has gained significant momentum in recent years, should be regarded as a strategic step within the framework of external economic relations), and aligning with the EU Green Deal through investments in the green economy; in the cultural sphere, to enhance the capacity to defend the rights and interests of related communities with which Turkey shares cultural and historical ties, and to institutionalise Soft Power Diplomacy that promotes Turkish culture, language and civilisational values to the world (YUNİKO, international programmes, increasing the number of Turkish Cultural Centres from 50 to 100, etc.);
Our universities must be restructured not as traditional academic institutions, but as authorised centres for strategy development, each specialising in a specific issue facing Turkey. A continuous mechanism for the flow of information must be established between think tanks, the defence industry, diplomacy and the technology sector; research outputs must be directly linked to policy design and industrial applications. In this way, knowledge production must be transformed from an abstract activity into a concrete set of elements that nourish state capacity.
By utilising diplomatic channels (economic, cultural, civil…) to serve the objective of elevating our foreign policy from the level of a regional power to that of a global actor, contributing to regional stability in the Middle East through dialogue and pragmatism, to assume a mediating role in the political resolution processes in Syria and Libya, to strengthen the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organisation (BSEC) to ensure security in the Black Sea, and to stand as a candidate for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council, among other priorities in the field of diplomacy.
Given that the most significant benefit of the national defence industry from a foreign policy perspective is its status as a fundamental component of national power, we should increase MKE A.Ş.’s domestic production capacity through the new systems unveiled at the SAHA 2026 exhibition, thereby raising the local content rate in the defence industry from 70% to 80–85%, further boosting export figures in the UAV/UCAV sector by developing these technologies, delivering national frigate and tank projects by 2028, increasing the defence R&D budget from 2% to 3.5% of GDP (the Ministry of National Defence’s 2026 budget has already shown an increase in this direction), to increase the global market share in drone technology, cyber defence and space technology to 5 per cent, and to implement the necessary regulations to enable Turkey’s defence industry to transition to an export-oriented position and thereby contribute to balancing the trade deficit.
By maximising our geopolitical position, we must move beyond merely serving as a physical bridge between Asia and Europe to become the centre of global trade routes and geopolitical balances, and ensure we are part of the critical decision-making mechanisms regarding which routes energy pipelines will take, becoming a central country in the energy corridor stretching from Central Asia to the Mediterranean by utilising Turkey’s geostrategic position, continuing to play a mediating role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict to ensure security in the Black Sea, and bringing the Black Sea International Corridor to fruition should be our primary objectives. The success of this multifaceted grand strategy depends on the effective implementation of our complementary sub-strategies across all these areas: economic stability provides the resources for cultural diplomacy; cultural appeal enhances diplomatic influence; diplomatic success facilitates defence cooperation; defence autonomy reinforces strategic autonomy; and strategic autonomy strengthens economic independence. At a time when global trade balances are shifting and new customs tariffs and regional trade agreements are taking shape, we can see that Turkey’s transformation from a regional power to a global actor is accelerating. Contributing to the transformation process in the Middle East to strengthen our position in the region, and maintaining flexible, multi-faceted diplomacy during this process—where changes in the global balance are yielding multi-dimensional outcomes—enables Turkey to capitalise on strategic opportunities; however, to fully capitalise on all these strategic opportunities, it is essential that we first ensure economic stability and reduce our trade deficit.
We can define Turkey’s role in the new era of the security architecture as a geostrategic bridge, a defence technology partner, a guarantor of energy security, a crisis management partner, and a strategic partner within NATO. According to our Minister of Foreign Affairs, ‘Turkey will continue to play an extremely important role in the European security architecture’; to sustain this role, we must complete internal reforms, increase the local content ratio in the defence industry, establish a central role in energy corridors, and consolidate Turkey’s position as an “equal partner” within NATO.
Conclusion
We face two scenarios: The first is a scenario that accelerates the transformation from a regional power to a global actor by ensuring economic stability, reducing the trade deficit, strengthening cultural diplomacy, increasing diplomatic autonomy, raising the domestic production rate in the defence industry, and bolstering strategic autonomy; The second is a scenario where economic instability persists and the trade deficit deepens, cultural influence diminishes, diplomatic dependence increases, reliance on foreign sources in the defence industry continues, and strategic opportunities are missed. The path we choose will determine our position on the global map over the next decade.
