Is Iran's State Bureaucracy Strong?

It is probably one of the misunderstood "Galat-i Sahih". “Water sleeps, the enemy does not.” concise expression. So, what everyone knows is wrong. When you think about it, does 'water' ever sleep? Of course he doesn't sleep. The wrong use of a word in idioms that are the balm of such languages ​​detracts even true aphorisms from their true meaning. For example, it is impossible to forget Şener Şen's unforgettable line in the movie Kabadayı (2007) regarding this maxim! “Water sleeps as soon as the enemy sleeps,” Haco said in an extremely erudite tone. In the words of Ali Osman, in which Şener Şen plays a penitent father, "They are not sleeping anyway, they are all in the grave." is one of the most typical examples of this. However, the essence of the motto is "Sü (i.e. the soldier) sleeps, the enemy does not sleep". I will never forget, it was one of the important courses in the sense of 'Military Geography' in the Military Academy, 'Suel Geography'. But for some reason, 'military discipline' in the sense of 'military discipline' did not hold well even in the military.

Why did I need such an introduction, dear readers? Now, because of Iran's foreign policy openings. In particular, its backing of Armenia, its consolidation against the Azerbaijani Armed Forces on the Karabakh border, the escalating debate between Azerbaijan and Iran also show that Iran is planning something behind closed doors against the Turkey-Azerbaijan cooperation and is trying to implement the Byzantinistic intrigues in the planning guide one after the other. Yes, just as Haco said, “Water Sleeps, but 'Iran' Does Not! However, the political, diplomatic and military maneuvers of the Republic of Turkey and its powerful army in the field, being aware of everything, are followed closely but anxiously by Iran. The proactive opposition that the Republic of Turkey has put forward for nearly a century since the national struggle is an indication of this vigilance and vigilance. The most important thing Iran is trying to do in the field is to disrupt the Turkey-Azerbaijan articulation, which strengthens its argument. Iran's pursuit of expansion outside of its own country, especially in the Middle East, has negatively affected the level of welfare inside Iran. The depreciation of the local currency in Iran, US sanctions and high inflation not only increased the possibility of repetition of protests with large participation, but also caused the economic problems to reach alarming levels. (1) This situation not only causes the Tehran administration to worry about the future of the country, but also shows that the Middle East may lose its last chance for effectiveness in this critical time. Despite all these problems, Iran has relied on its permanence and effectiveness abroad on the withdrawal of the US armed forces from both Iraq and Syria. With the Arab Spring, it has been seen that Iran's gains have been directly proportional to the US's leftovers. Especially in the Middle East, the gap that emerged with the gains of the USA in the Shiite world and its withdrawal from these regions is being filled by Shiite Iran. In the Sunni world, the gaps that have arisen are being filled by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It is for this reason that Saudi Arabia has landed six F-15 jets at the Suda Base in Crete to intimidate Turkey, and that the UAE is behind the Khalifa Haftar Forces in Libya. Even though the Saudi-Iranian conflict over Yemen is still alive, the talks that started under the mediation of Baghdad highlight Turkey's "Precious Loneliness". It is also in question that these meetings will evolve to a higher level with İbrahim Reisi. Meanwhile, Iran's conflicts with Saudi Arabia, Israel, the USA and France at different levels are reflected in Lebanese domestic politics through Hezbollah, and these problems are being resolved by the Syrian regime in Damascus. Lebanon's electricity problem from Jordan via Syria; The natural gas problem was also resolved from Egypt. As part of Syria's normalization with Arab countries, Jordan started flights to Amman-Damascus (Syria) as of October 3, 2021, after 10 years.

Ibrahim Reisi, the man in the position of "yedd-i sure" (a sure hand) of the "Ahund Order", which was ruled from the city of Qum in Iran, was taken to the presidential seat by an elevator. The 13th presidential election, which has been held every four years since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in Iran, was held on 18 June 2021. President Ibrahim Reisi, who took the oath on August 7, 2021, made his first trip abroad to Tajikistan on September 17, 2021, where he witnessed his country's acceptance as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Thus, for the first time in the last 40 years, Iran has succeeded in joining an international organization as a full member. The number of members of the SCO, which was established in 1996 under the joint leadership of China and the Russian Federation (RF), reached nine with the participation of Iran. (2nd)

Let's come now moment to the future of Afghanistan relations. The policy that Iran will follow against the Taliban, with whom it has had a lot of hostility in the past, the possible civil war and migration wave in Afghanistan are of primary concern to Iran. Sharing a border of about 900 km with Afghanistan, Iran has made it clear that it wants to play a larger role in Afghanistan following the US withdrawal. Tehran, which came to the brink of war with the Taliban in 1998 and cooperated with the USA to overthrow the Taliban in 2001, cooperated with this organization against the presence of the USA in Afghanistan, with the changing conjuncture after the 2000s. Especially since 2019, when the USA intensified negotiations with the Taliban to withdraw from Afghanistan, a significant change has been observed in Tehran's approach towards the Taliban. During this period, Iran hosted the Taliban delegation twice in its own country, once in November 2019 and in February 2020, right after the US reached an agreement with the Taliban. (3) However, the Taliban's sole takeover of power in Afghanistan remains a red line for Iran. The prevailing view in Tehran is that a Taliban-led government in Afghanistan could pose a threat to Iran's national interests in the medium and long term. For this purpose, Iran has even expressed its desire to use the "Afghan Fatimiyyyun Brigades" used in Syria on different occasions, possibly against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Expressing that it will withdraw from Iraq by the end of the year, the USA also reveals that it will not completely leave the region by taking lessons from the withdrawal in Afghanistan. While the United States secured its troops under fire in Iraq in safe zones, it shifted some of its troops in Qatar to Jordan. It seems that the US has determined as the primary step on its roadmap to establish a base close to where it can conduct air operations in Iraq and Syria, similar to what it did in Afghanistan. After the election in Syria, Bashar al-Assad started his fourth term, and the tensions in Iraq between the Iranian-backed militia and the USA moved to Syria. Although no statement was made after the one-day 'Sochi Summit' between President Erdogan and RF President Putin on September 29, 2021, which lasted for 2 hours and 45 minutes after a one and a half years, the current conjuncture shows that in the ongoing talks between RF and the USA, not only progress but also the agreement is reached. The thesis that even it can be achieved is put forward by the findings. Despite the fact that Turkey has parallel memorandums of understanding with both the Russians and the US, the violations are concentrated in the 'Idlib' region. He is still constantly harassed by terrorist elements in the Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Peace Spring operation areas, Manbij, Tel Rifat, Tel Temur and Ayn Isa. No concrete results could be obtained from the so-called 'Geneva Process' meetings held under the auspices of the United Nations.

For this reason, the absence of another platform on which realistic efforts are made for the solution of the Syrian problem has made Sochi important. For this reason, Turkey, Russia and Iran together in the Syrian issue; They took important steps to reach peace in the Astana and Sochi processes, which were the previous legs of the Ankara Summit. Until recently, the dialogue process carried out by 'Sochi' Ankara with Moscow and Tehran on the solution of the Syria problem has also been a symbol of the Astana process. Sochi is important because it facilitates Turkey's operations against terrorist organizations on Syrian territory. It should also be emphasized that the opening of the Syrian airspace, which this country controls with effective air defense systems, as a result of the diplomacy carried out with Russia, is of great importance in the realization of the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch Operations. Likewise, the withdrawal of Russian soldiers in the region before the operation against Afrin also eliminated the risk of conflict with Russia for Turkey and made it possible for Ankara to carry out the operation more safely. On the other hand, RF has achieved its permanence in Karabakh. In addition, in 2014, the RF returned to its last military facility, the 'Gabala' base (3), located on the territory of Azerbaijan, and started to revive this base. This issue makes one think about the argument that Azerbaijan may be trying to balance Turkey's permanence in Azerbaijan through the RF. Lord Palmerston, one of the former Prime Ministers of England who lived in the 1800s, said that "England has no eternal friends and enemies, it has unchangeable interests"; It shows a process that centers pragmatism in diplomacy and international relations. If this principle is in the interest of the state in question, it also means that a colder relationship can be established with the state with which a close relationship is established, and one can get closer to the state that is distant. Because states are not organizations that act with human feelings. (4) A more advanced version of this is the same in Turkey and Russia in their bilateral relations. as well as the application of “Compartment Diplomacy” originating from pragmatism. Accordingly, relations are divided into compartments like a train compartment, and each compartment is managed in different ways. For example, TurkStream, Akkuyu, tourism, trade volume, etc. are positive; Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Karabakh, etc. negative; Cyprus etc. is maintained as neutral. This diplomacy ensures the continuation of constant contact over the good ones instead of breaking all relations completely in the first crisis.

On the other hand, the description of "two states, one nation" between Azerbaijan and Turkey can vary according to force, time and space. The international principle of "there is no absolute friend or foe" is insufficient to determine the quality of relations between states in today's world where there are many actors, variables and the center of power is constantly moving. In today's conditions, the principle of "there is no such thing as absolute alliance, there is no complete independence, but there is interdependence in the continuation of relations" has begun to generalize. This situation can be read as one step ahead of not being able to define the other person as an absolute friend or absolute enemy. In short, in today's environment where the distinctions between friend and foe are blurred, the principle of "there is no absolute ally" has become dominant. This approach is a residue left by Russian Azerbaijan from the past to the present and the long-term Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic process that followed. It should not be forgotten that Northern Azerbaijan has lived under the captivity of Russia for a long time. It should not be forgotten that South Azerbaijan was transferred to Iran as a province from British Azerbaijan. The capital of United Azerbaijan is Tabriz.

of Russia; It is not difficult to predict that if he had not cooperated with Turkey within the framework of the Astana and Sochi processes, he would have approached the operation against Afrin very negatively. It is true. However, lately, it has been seen that the RF has modernized the Mig 29s in Syria's hands, making them capable of seizing air superiority in the Idlib region, increasing their attacks and harassment, and Syria's air violations. The Assad regime, together with the Iranian militia, continues its attacks against the civilian population in the region and does not comply with the ceasefire. Although it is in the Astana Process, its name is not even mentioned in Sochi nowadays due to the Quds Force within the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Army, the 'Hashd al-Shaabi', Iranian Hezbollah in Lebanon and the 100% Iranian suburbs in Syria. In this regard, RF is showing assistance to Iran. Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has appointed a new commander to head the Quds Force within the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Army, just hours after Qassem Soleimani was killed by an American airstrike on January 3, 2020, almost two years ago. At that time, the rapid announcement of the assignment had created the impression that it was intended to give a message of continuity. The Quds Force is just one of eight forces within the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Other forces include the Ground Resistance Force under the command of Muhammed Pakpur, the Air Force under the command of Emir Ali Hajizade, the Naval Force under the command of Alirıza Tangsiri, the volunteer Basic militia under the command of Gülemzade Suleimani, the Intelligence under the command of Hüseyin Taeb, the Counter-Intelligence under the command of Muhammed Kazimi, and the Security Force under the command of Fethullah Jumei.

In conclusion, what I would say is that the succinct expression "Asia belongs to Asians" makes it necessary to raise the reactionary voice of Asia against Western expansionism. It is the policy of establishing an area that will cover all of Asia, on the basis of China and Manchuria, under the leadership of Japan, for the liberation and independence of South East Asia from exploitation, based on the 'Greater East Asia Common Prosperity Idea'. “Turkey belongs to the Turks” on the logo of one of our newspapers is the Turkish reflection of this laconic expression. On the other hand, this project is a fascist-expansionist and colonial policy similar to the Italian 'Mediterranean is Ours' or Our Sea (Mare Nostrum) and German 'Living Space' (Lebensraum) policies. (5) However, this project has been turned into a project that aims to liberate the Far East Asian countries, which are under the occupation of Western imperialism, and to develop this liberated geography politically and economically under Japanese rule. Indeed, with the wind of the West behind it, Japan was able to reach its widest borders in Asia with this project. The acceptance of Iran as the 9th member of the SCO once again reminds us of Japan's 'Greater East Asia Common Welfare Area Idea'. Yes, dear readers, the partnership of the PRC and RF should be perceived as an expansionist-colonial policy that was implemented in a somewhat similar way to the Japan of the past. The SCO's thorny path should also be considered from this perspective.

footnotes

(1) Abdolsalam Salimi Poor, Mustafa Melih Ahıshalı , Economic problems in Iran have reached alarming proportions|, Anadolu Agency 02.07.2020; https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/iranda -economic-problems-concern-reached-size-/1897074/Access Date 03.10.2021/

(2) Hüseyin Over, The Future of Iran-Afghanistan Relations, STRASAM Magazine, September 24, 2021; https://www.strasam.org/siyaset-bilimi-ve-uluslararas%C4%B1-ili%C5%9Fkiler/iran-afganistan-ili%C5%9Fkisini-gelece%C4%9Fi/Access Date 02.10.2021/

(3) Hakkı Uygur, Rahimullah Farzam, What does the US withdrawal from Afghanistan mean for the countries of the region?Anadolu Agency, 10.08.2021; https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/abd-nin-afganistan-dan-cekletme-bolge-ulkeleri-icin-ne-anlama-geliyor/2329768/ Access Date 03.10.2021/

(4) Nesrin Sarıahmetoğlu, Okan Yeşilot, Abdulvahap Kara- Fahri Solak (Ed.s), Turkish Republics in the 25th Anniversary of their Independence (Political, Economic and Cultural Developments), Union of Turkish World Municipalities (TDBB) Publications, No: 23, Istanbul, 2017, p.23

(5) İdris Kardaş, “There is no absolute ally either.” Sabah-Yeni Aktüel, 15 October 2018;https://www.sabah.com.tr/yazarlar/aktuel/idris-kardas/2018/10/15/mutlak-muttefik-de-yoktur/ Accessed 02.10.2021/

(6) Silent History, Japan's Policy on the Common Welfare Space (Detailed); http://www.sessiztarih.net/2020/07/japonyanin-ortak-refah-alani-politikasi.html/ Access Date 03.10.2021/