Is Permanent Peace Possible in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

With the end of the Cold War, what everyone expected happened and Yugoslavia fell apart. Consisting of six republics and two autonomous regions, which Tito of Croatian origin tried to hold together, this 'mosaic' country began to grapple with economic and ethnic problems after Tito's death in 1980. As a result, the country was fragmented along ethnic lines in the early 1990s, and the policy of the Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic's administration to unite the rest of the country under the flag of 'Serbia' failed.

Croatia and Slovenia declared their independence on 25 June 1991, and then Macedonia in September of the same year. On October 15, 1991, the Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina decided for independence in a session that was not attended by Serbian deputies, and to reinforce this, citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina also voted for independence. By April 1992, the USA and the European Union; Croatia recognized the independence of Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time, Serbia and Montenegro came together and declared themselves the rightful heirs of the former Yugoslavia. The international community did not recognize this fait accompli, but the Serbs did not want to give up their love.

Thus, the dreams of a "Greater Serbia" of the Serbs, who could not obtain the necessary legitimacy, especially from the USA and the EU, were blocked. Despite this, Bosnian Serbs, who make up 30% of the population in the newly independent Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina, started a separatist armed movement to establish their own state in the Bosnia-Herzegovina region. Armed Serbs seized most of the lands of the unarmed and unprotected Bosniaks. Encouraged by this, the Bosnian Croats also claimed half of the remaining lands and declared their own independent administration. Thus, 15-20% of the country's territory was left to the Bosnian Muslims, who make up approximately 40% of the population of Bosnia-Herzegovina. The ethnically based and balanced sharing that took place in the shadow of the guns; as a result, it suddenly caused armed conflicts between ethnic groups.

By the armed and more organized Bosnian Serbs, "ethnic cleansing" was carried out in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and thousands of Bosniak Muslims were killed. In order to end the conflicts, the UN imposed an embargo on Serbia and Montenegro in May 1992, but since the European countries and the USA did not have the will to use force to say "stop" to the Serbs, the Serbs continued to commit massacres. Afterwards, the UN Protection force sent to Bosnia and Herzegovina was not successful enough to stop the conflicts.

Ethnic cleansing in Bosnia and Herzegovina took place before the eyes of the world, in the heart of so-called civilized Europe. The Clinton administration initially adopted an unwarranted approach that these lands were within the responsibility of Europe and did not take a serious stance to stop the conflicts. When the European states could not demonstrate the necessary will for various reasons, the mass killings continued until 1994, and the majority of Bosniaks were imprisoned in concentration camps by the Serbs. In the meantime, since April 12, 1993, aircraft belonging to NATO countries (including Turkey) have carried out mission flights for the purpose of sanctioning Serbian aircraft over Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was declared a "no-fly" zone. However, the expected benefit at that time could not be obtained from these flights, as the offensive Serbian elements on the ground were not authorized to fire. In the same period, the USA, who was content with imposing an economic embargo instead of military sanctions against the Serbs; After the Serbian forces massacred 7,000 Muslims in Srebrenica in front of the UN force, he could not close his eyes to this atrocities any longer. As a result of NATO's decision to intervene against the Serbs in line with the UN resolutions, the bombing of Serbian military positions in Bosnia-Herzegovina started on 30 August 1995. As a result of this bombardment, it was possible to sign a ceasefire agreement between the parties in Dayton on 21 November 1995. Subsequently, with the Peace Treaty of 14 December 1995, present-day Bosnia and Herzegovina; It has taken its place on the world stage as a sovereign state consisting of Bosnian Croats, Serbs and Bosnians. The Presidency Council, which was chaired by the leaders of three different ethnic groups alternately, started to rule the country and the parliament, in which the parties were represented according to their populations, became operational.

The State of Bosnia and Herzegovina was constituted as two separate structures, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska. At the head of the state, a Presidential Council of three persons elected separately by each of the three ethnic groups (Bosniak, Croat and Serb) was decided to serve. In addition to this council, it has been decided that 15 members of the People's Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina (10 Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 5 Republika Srpska) and 42 members of the Chamber of Deputies will serve.

In the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which takes its name from the Bosnian river that irrigates the country's lands, the population of approximately 5 million; 44% belong to Bosnians, 31% to Serbs and 17% to Croats. The Ottomans annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1463 and ruled this country for about 400 years, until it was lost in the 1877-78 Ottoman-Russian war.
During the first 10 years after the establishment of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a central army of the country could not be established. Ultimately, the Ministry of Defense was established with the historical agreement reached by the decision makers in 2005, and a transition to a professional army of approximately 15,000 people, based in Sarajevo, was established under this ministry. The Ministry of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff have been made a rotating task between Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, at the point we have reached, we can say that violence has largely disappeared throughout the country. However, there may be tensions between Bosniaks and Bosnian Serbs from time to time. In the country, still ethnic-based nationalism; may be promoted by political parties and religious groups. Perspectives representing the interests of ethnic groups; plays a role in delaying the emergence of a structure suitable for the requirements of common life. This situation creates a suitable ground for separatist movements to find a living space for themselves. Although 25 years have passed, the problems that arose after the civil war could not be completely resolved. In particular, the expected progress towards the return of IDPs and refugees to their homes has not been achieved. The continuation of the grievances of these people makes it difficult to establish social peace. After 1995, the weapons and ammunition used in the conflicts were taken under control. However, the ineffective border security and widespread arms smuggling emerged as a threat to the peace environment. The activities of international smuggling and criminal organizations also continued to be a factor disrupting the environment and social order in the country.

The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina could not develop policies to overcome the current political division in the country. Therefore, there have been constant disruptions in the processes of economic reform and restructuring. Even a common market between the Bosnian Croat Federation and the Bosnian Serb Republic has not yet been established.

The federal state, which is expected to produce solutions to the country's problems; Despite the efforts made, it could not reach a strong enough structure. The failure of the Dayton Agreement to establish the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina in a structure that can operate effectively is seen as the biggest reason for the existence of today's cumbersome structure and dysfunctional institutions. The revision of the current constitution with the principles that will activate the functioning of the state and ensure economic, social, legal and cultural development remains on the agenda. The process of democratization and integration into the global system could not be completed in the country. The hope that the country will be paved and lasting peace can be established in the event that the constitutional amendment is made and the EU membership is achieved, has turned into a saving expectation prevailing in the general public.

Today, the USA has little or no interest in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia and Herzegovina has become predominantly an EU sphere of influence. The fact that Croatia became an EU member in July 2013 has brought vitality to this country and its surroundings. Evaluations are made that the same vitality will spread to the entire region if Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina become EU members. However, the Republika Srpska, where predominantly Bosnian Serbs live, still has not completely given up on their dreams of uniting with Serbia and establishing a great Serbia. In addition, Serbia's start of negotiations with the EU motivated the Bosnian Serbs to leave the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the other hand, the EU's initiation of the membership negotiation process with Bosnia and Herzegovina also contributed positively to the maintenance of peace in the region. It is obvious that if Bosnia and Herzegovina gains EU membership, this situation will restrain the separatist movements to a certain extent.

In any case, the influence of Serbia and Croatia on Bosnian Serbs and Croats is expected to continue, which pushes the Bosnians to 'solitude'. It cannot be foreseen to what extent the EU membership, if achieved, can produce a solution to such problems.

In recent months, a new wave of instability has begun to spread throughout the Balkans. In September 2021, there was tension about the "plate" in Kosovo. A rule has been introduced in Kosovo not to drive a car with a Serbian license plate. Serbs living in northern Kosovo are in favor of not replacing their license plates with the temporary Republic of Kosovo license plate. In order to overcome this rule, they organized various actions and showed their reactions with practices that amounted to violence from time to time.

After the September 2020 elections, the political life in Montenegro was tense. In this environment, the people who wanted to move to an independent Orthodox Church in Montenegro, prevented Serbia from doing this. He accused him of committing murder and interfering in his internal affairs.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, on the other hand, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has recently stressed the country's politics with his words implying that the Serbian community may reorganize outside of the Bosnia-Herzegovina state roof. Dodik; It also brought forward that Bosnian Serbs could withdraw from the Bosnia-Herzegovina army, intelligence, judiciary and tax institutions. This situation may lead to the establishment of a "separatist" Serbian paramilitary army, as well as to developments that may lead to an escalation of violence in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Nationalist sentiments are on the rise again in the Balkans. This situation naturally brought the partition and independence movements back to the agenda of the Balkans. It is mentioned that there are many factors that trigger ethnic nationalist tendencies. Chief among these is the fact that there was a severe economic recession in the Balkans with the pandemic. There was a perception that the EU enlargement process slowed down in this period. In this region, which is still full of inter-communal tensions, politics has become the most decisive institution in the distribution of wealth. Therefore, members of the government who are close to their own ethnic group, and in a country with rotating leadership like Bosnia and Herzegovina, in an environment where unemployment is widespread, wrong practices can cause tensions.

European countries; currently takes a 'remote' stance against the risks and threats emerging in the geography of the Former Yugoslavia. The EU continues to be slow in anticipating problems and taking proactive and preventive approaches in this context.

On the other hand, the biggest impasse of the European Union; The reason is that there is almost no ready-made military power that can be used as a sudden reaction force against new ruptures that may occur in the fault lines in this region. There is no clear will in this direction yet. The absence of an available military force in the context of an emergency response force; It also strengthens the hand of those who intend to destabilize the region. Meanwhile, Russia; Slavic and Orthodox groups display a favourable approach and act with the desire to consolidate their presence in the region. This makes political fault lines even more fragile. The more trouble Moscow causes in the Balkans, the more it will slow down the region's integration into the European Union and NATO. Russia is pursuing a competitive Balkan policy of getting the revenge of Eastern Europe, especially the Ukraine card, against the West.

The West has to act with the awareness of the difficulty of building societies that contain multi-ethnic structures. The EU should not cease to support multi-ethnic and multi-cultural state structures. Such states that the EU does not support will become more fragile. From this, Bosnia and Herzegovina will be adversely affected the most in the Balkans region. Moreover, if the EU chooses to woo ultranationalist regional leaders in pursuit of short-term geopolitical interests, the people of the region will inevitably have to pay a heavy price, similar to what it did in the 1990s.
The general expectation among the Balkan peoples is that the EU will not legitimize some political leaders who have destabilized the region. Geopolitical competition in the region still keeps the interest in the idea of ​​“border adjustments” alive. Giving a bonus to some leaders in the countries of the region who put forward aggressive policies is perceived as the EU indirectly supporting the politicians who 'confuse' the region. It should be noted that the core issues of the Dayton Agreement are still unresolved. The perception that the EU is not able to show sufficient leadership may continue to grow in this fragile environment, with the debates on secession, division and irredentism (salvation) endangering the peace in the region.

In this context, those who give up hope for various reasons from the EU; They started to say that American power was needed to solve the accumulated problems in the Balkans. It is expected that the Biden government will make a similar exit to the Clinton administration of the 1990s. Those cheering for the US "return" to the region say they have hope that the Biden administration will help break the political stalemate in their country. However, the Biden administration has yet to give color as to whether it will prioritize this region.

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