Is the European Union the Loser of the Ukraine War?

Süleyman Demirel was a young technocrat who entered politics at the age of 38 from the bureaucracy. He quickly became President at the age of 40 and Prime Minister a year later. I think there are hardly any of us who do not remember his famous quote. He defined opportunism the best, in my opinion, with the description "Yesterday is yesterday, today is today". I didn't think too deeply about it, but perhaps this is how he explained the word conjuncture in the most detailed way. It is a fact that he was a man of conjunctures. His perception of reality changed accordingly. He was careful not to go beyond the conjuncture. His duty was to take a position according to the conjuncture without challenging the status quo. He was a leader with the qualities that the Cold War era was looking for. He knew very, very well how to act according to the conditions of the world order he was in. (1) He knew very well how to put forward "not the voice of his conscience but the picture of the situation" before setting the agenda. He always knew his limits and took great care and caution not to exceed them. His task was to reinforce, consolidate and consolidate the existing structure. In a sense, this dictated a situation beyond the guardianship of the status quo. 

On the other hand, İsmet İnönü, the commander of the Western Front? Prime Minister İnönü had taken the decision to land in Cyprus on June 7, 1964 after the bloody Christmas. It was an extremely risky decision according to the conditions of that day. But it was a decision that had to be taken. However, the bilateral treaty signed with the US on July 12, 1947 prevented Turkey from using military equipment obtained from the US through grants or purchases in Cyprus. At that time, the Naval Forces Command had almost no capacity to conduct an amphibious operation. We had four small landing ships. A special unit, the Amphibious Regiment, had not yet been established. So how was the landing in Cyprus to be carried out in 1964? A practical solution was to use civilian freighters assembled at Mersin Port. It was not even a matter of debate whether a large-scale military operation could be carried out with freighters. Those who lived through those days in Turkey will recall that everyone was on their feet... On top of that, US President Lyndonn B. Johnson had sent a letter to Prime Minister İnönü containing insolent statements. Turkey realized that going to Cyprus was not that easy. (2) In his reply to US President Johnson, who sent him a letter full of arrogant statements in 1964, Prime Minister İnönü said;

"A new world will be established and Turkey will find its place in this world." (3)  

Yes, if necessary, a new world order would be established and the Republic of Turkey would take its place in that world order. Although the US was not very comfortable, conditions were controlled by fewer variables than today. Turkey read the conjuncture well. Because the United States was struggling with the Vietnam War, which it had intervened in 1963 and which plagued it for 10 years until 1973. The late İsmet İnönü had succinctly stated that Turkey should always have an alternative "Plan B". The deficiency was seen, Turkey had to have sufficient landing craft for the amphibious operation that would have to be carried out in the event of Turkey's military intervention in Cyprus as required by the Treaty of Guarantee.  The building could not rise without mortar. Both Demirel and İnönü took on this task together with the nation. After the 1964 crisis, donations for the navy were already being collected from the public with the "NATION BUILDS" campaign launched the following year. After the campaign, which was launched with the slogan "NATION BUILDS WHAT OTHERS DON'T", the Turkish Naval Association was back in business and aimed to build the naval power that the Republic of Turkey needed. As of 1965, many landing ships were built at the Taşkızak and Gölcük Shipyards with the encouragement of the Turkish Naval Society, and the TCG BERK (D-358) Escort Destroyer, which started to be built in 1967, entered service in 1972 with domestic facilities. (4) 

To cut a long story short, the adoption of a state systematic by both Demirel and İnönü to preserve and consolidate the status quo in an import-substitution economic system and to carry the strengthened Republic of Turkey into the future paved the way for the 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation within the framework of UN peacekeeping operations, and this conceptual framework brought success. A Muslim nation-state was conducting its first amphibious, airborne and airdropping operation after Normandy.

Why have I told you all this, dear readers, is because the geography we are in necessitates an uncompromising stance in the system of determination.  The eyes of the world are now focused and concentrated on ending the Ukrainian war before the end of winter. Can the Ukrainian war really be ended? Or under what conditions can the parties at least sit down at the ceasefire table? In my opinion, as long as the US continues to see Continental Europe as its own backyard and continues to threaten NATO and the RF, this war will not end, and as long as it does not end, it will prolong and spread. And Europe will be the first to pay the bill, and not just like that. First and foremost, the EU must abandon its assumption and stance that the West will win the war. The Ukrainian people, and Volodymyr Zelensky in particular, must be freed from the Washington-London-Warsaw hook and have the right to determine their own future. Looking at the big picture, it is clear that Zelenski cannot decide on his own. 

Even if the Russian Federation wins, it will be a Pyrrhic victory. Just like Putin, King Pyrrhus of Epirus, who was constantly expanding his territory in the wars he fought, finally achieved a great victory against Rome at the Battle of Askalum in 279 BC. However, he suffered so many casualties during this victory that he eventually had to give up the throne. In the Ukraine crisis, President Erdoğan, who has been careful to maintain a semblance of harmony in mind and spirit with the warring leaders, seems to have become a sought-after leader between the West and Russia. 

Erdoğan, with the support of the world community, has also made it clear on almost every occasion that he intends to use the diplomatic breakthrough he achieved with the agriculture deal to mediate a stop to the war. Although he repeated his offer to bring Putin together with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in Sochi, he regrettably did not receive a positive response. Putin is taking utmost care to be a liaison between what the Western powers can do for Ukraine and how to stop them.  However, it is important to emphasize one important point in capital letters. The West, and the US in particular, must stop supporting Ukraine, especially militarily. Above all, the EU(D) must be ready for this. In order for President Erdoğan to bring the two warring leaders to the peace table in Istanbul, the West must declare that it is giving up something. 

Putin claims that he is on Turkey's side in the fight against terrorism in Syria and that he maintains a fair approach towards Turkey, citing the updating and expansion of the Adana Agreement as a starting point. However, Turkey is also particularly vulnerable to the attack salvos of the US-backed Syrian PeKaKa satellite state.  Intervention in the region is of vital importance. Unfortunately, the green light for the essential Tel Rifaat and Manbij operation, which was not given at the Astana summit in Tehran on July 19, was not given at the Sochi summit.  It should be noted that although the Kremlin agrees with Turkey's concerns, it did not refrain from warning that a possible operation would not yield good results. 

Another issue is that the Republic of Turkey has been invited to the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization Heads of State Summit" to be held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan on September 15-16, 2022. After the meeting of the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization", which has turned into the "Shanghai Nine" together with Iran, it is considered that the doors may be opened for Turkey to join the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and the Republic of South Africa) organization, an alternative to the G-7, in the near future. It may be recalled that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attended the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in 2018 with a special invitation and took part in the family photo shoot of the summit. (5)

After all this, I would like to say that the new chancellor of post-Merkel Germany is playing the role of the Trojan Horse of the US, and instead of bringing the EU countries together, let alone the leadership of Continental Europe, he offers a good example of backwardness, insincerity and lack of courage.  Olaf Scholz also symbolizes the type of politician that the bipolar globe, which is now splitting into two poles dictated by conformist structures that want those who should speak to remain silent and those who want to be on the side of power. Let us not forget that one of the losers of the Ukraine-Russia war is Germany, the leader of Continental Europe, the EU. Hitler's Germany, which was prepared even for the winter months of the Second World War, has now made unpreparedness its flag.  

Footnotes:

(1) Mahmut Haldun Sönmezer, “Bir Dün Dündür, Bugün Bugündür Masalı, Süleyman Demirel”, Keyfiyet Mahfili, 23 Haziran 2016; http://www.keyfiyetmahfili.com/2016/06/bir-dun-dundur-bugun-bugundur-masali-suleyman-demirel/Erişim Tarihi 28.08. 2022/

(2) Erol Mütercimler, Satılık Ada Kıbrıs: Kıbrıs Barış Harekatının Bilinmeyen Yönleri, Alfa Yayınları, İstanbul, s. 125   

(3) https://twitter.com/ugurdundarsozcu/status/1386040406010482689/ Erişim Tarihi 28.08.2022 

(4) Cem Gürdeniz, Anavatandan Mavi Vatan'a, Kırmızı Kedi Yayınları, İstanbul, 2021 ss. 121-122

(5) https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2022/dunya/brics-baskani-acikladi-turkiyenin-en-kisa-zamanda-uye-olmasini-umuyoruz-7249036/Erişim Tarihi 28.08.22/