Is the US Creating a Kurdish State Despite Turkey?

The efforts to create a Kurdish state in the Middle East, including some of Turkey's eastern provinces, are centered on the Wilsonian Principles declared in 1918. The US must be calculating that it is getting closer to realizing its 100-year-old dream of granting independence to the Kurds, as it has made high-level visits to the region in the last month at the level of the Secretaries of State and Defense, as well as the Chief of Staff. 

Blinken, Milley and Austin Visits and Contacts with the YPG/PKK

US Secretary of State Blinken began his visit from Cairo to Tel Aviv and the West Bank in the shadow of the escalation of violence in the Palestinian territories in the last days of January. Blinken's visit aimed to consult with partners on a range of international and regional priorities. The Iran dossier, Israeli-Palestinian relations and the preservation of the two-state solution were among the most prominent topics. Blinken and Netanyahu "discussed broader regional issues, including the threat posed by Iran" and underscored the "strong US commitment" to Israel's security.

About a month after Blinken, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, General Mark Milley, visited Israel in early March. Although it was not part of his official program, he did not neglect to visit northeastern Syria after Israel. On March 4, he visited the US military base in Hasakah in northern Syria, in the region occupied by the terrorist organization YPG/PKK. According to American sources, he received updates on the anti-ISIS mission and examined force protection measures. In fact, Milley said that the Kurdish militias, working together with American troops, are making progress in achieving the lasting defeat of Daesh. Milley's visit, in which he allegedly met with leaders of the terrorist organizations PKK/PYD/YPG at the US military unit, caused discomfort in Damascus and Ankara. US Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake was summoned to the Foreign Ministry. According to diplomatic sources, the ambassador said that the general met only with American officers. Although the ambassador's statements failed to convince Ankara, the American side was informed of the discomfort through official channels.

Following the visits of Blinken and Milley, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin arrived in the region for a visit to Jordan, Israel and Egypt, but like Milley, Austin squeezed in a visit to Baghdad and especially Erbil on March 6. Austin discussed the security situation in the region and the Iran file with Iraqi officials. He then met with Nechirvan Barzani, President of the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq (KRG). Austin condemned Iranian attacks targeting Iraqi territory and called on Baghdad and Erbil to cooperate. Emphasizing that the only goal of the US troops in Iraq is to destroy the terrorist organization ISIS, Austin said, "We have worked together for more than 10 years. Thanks to the coalition forces, we have managed to retake a large area from ISIS. Peshmerga forces have played a major role in the fight against ISIS."

As an aside, just after Austin's visit, on March 7, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also visited the Iraqi capital Baghdad. After this visit, Baerbock came to Erbil, the capital of the KRG, and met with Barzani. Baerbock also used a language similar to Austin's. He said that the terrorist organization DAESH still poses a threat in the region. Stating that coordination and cooperation between the Iraqi army and KRG Peshmerga forces should be ensured in order to prevent the activities of the terrorist organization DAESH, Baerbock emphasized the need to take the same side against terrorism. In this respect, I think it would not be wrong to say that German foreign policy acts in parallel with the US in terms of pragmatism.

As far as I can see, this is the first time that such an intense high-level diplomatic traffic has been experienced by the American side. Without prejudice to other issues, I believe that the main purpose of these visits is to neutralize the Iranian militias in Syria with the YPG's 85,000 militias, and thus to contain the Iranian threat. Undoubtedly, the US will continue to push Iran to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (nuclear deal). Suppressing Iranian militias in Syria indirectly serves this purpose, while also serving to reinforce Israel's regional security.

The US became fully involved in the "mess" in Syria in 2015. There are currently around 900 American troops in Syria. It is understood that the Biden administration is under increasing pressure from the American public opinion for the return of this symbolic number of troops, and therefore the Pentagon needs to explain to the Congress its "rationale for being in Syria". In this context, on March 8, the House of Representatives, the lower house of the US Congress, voted on a bill introduced by Republican MP Matt Gaetz calling on President Joe Biden to withdraw all US troops from Syria. The bill was rejected with 321 "no" votes against 103 "yes" votes. In Gaetz's speech during the vote, while pointing to the complex equation in Syria, it was noteworthy that he claimed that Iran had deployed Hezbollah militias to support the Assad regime and almost invaded Syria, in short, emphasizing Iran.

The US wants to hit Iran in Syria, YPG is a pawn of the US

After the so-called fight against ISIS, the US administration has come to see the Kurds as natural allies. There are assessments that the cooperation between the parties is about to turn into a strategic partnership. The relationship of mutual interest has reached the highest level. 

The Kurdish ethnic population in the region is scattered across the borders of four countries. In my opinion, the US primarily wants to unite the Kurdish community in Iraq and Syria. In the short term, the Kurdish population in Turkey and Iran is excluded from the 'Kurdish independence' equation. A phased plan is being put into action.

Could a Syria-Iraq Kurdish State be established?

Barzani and PKK/YPG visits should not be read separately, but as a whole. After 1990, with the increasing US support and the elimination of Saddam in 2003, the structure in northern Iraq became self-sufficient under the leadership of Barzani. After 2011, the PYD/YPG organization was raised to its feet in line with the claim of fighting ISIS. Now, in line with the goal of 'eliminating Iran's influence over Iraq and Syria', it is time to unite these two so-called autonomous structures under one roof.

In exchange for the unification of the so-called southern and western Kurdistan regions into a Syrian-Iraqi Kurdish state, the YPG, with a militia of around 85,000, must help American forces clear Iranian militias from Syria. The 900 American troops in Syria are expected to remain, planning and directing point operations against Iranian militias. Israel could support this process by neutralizing Iranian militias with air-to-ground strikes. This would indirectly prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Traditional US interests are famously guided by the realist paradigm. However, American pragmatism has gained importance with the post-1980 boom in globalization. For the US, the traditional form of utilitarianism, the "the most beneficial action is the best action" mentality, is aligned with realist interest policies. When we evaluate the Kurdish issue from this perspective, it is possible that the US will ultimately direct and utilize the Kurdish state, which it aims to establish by taking Israel along with international powers such as Germany, in line with the traditional interests of the Western world.

Washington wants the PKK/YPG to continue to exist with US support. In the past, the support of the YPG militia in the fight against the so-called ISIS threat was used as a strong anchor, a pretext against Ankara and Damascus. Now the Iranian presence in Syria is being used as a similar pretext. In northeastern Syria, in the so-called "Western Kurdistan-Rojava" region, the PKK/YPG is being given space. The ground is being prepared for a Hezbollah-PKK/YPG conflict. Thus, while US troops remain in the region and maintain their positions, the stage is being set for the establishment of a Syrian-Iraqi Kurdish State by uniting the so-called "Western Kurdistan" and the "Southern Kurdistan" regions in northern Iraq.

The Possible Impact of the Evolution of the Astana Process into a Quadrilateral Format on the "Kurdish Independence" Plan

With the Arab Spring, Ankara and Damascus have become increasingly estranged. The 'invasion' of 4 million Syrian irregular migrants on Turkish soil, followed by the operations in Syrian territory since August 2016 as an extension of Turkey's efforts to create a safe corridor to control its southern border, have been an obstacle for many years for the two countries to find solutions together. 

However, in the last two years, Turkish foreign policy has begun to signal a return to a policy of 'zero problems' with neighbors. Moscow-oriented policies started to serve as a reference for Ankara, which had problems in its contacts with the Western world. The Moscow-Tehran-Ankara line, which was established through the Astana process, is now being used as a regular format for diplomatic contacts. Damascus has so far been an indirect participant in this line. 

It is also known that Putin has taken steps to overcome the disconnect between Assad and Erdogan. The goal is to hold a meeting between Assad and Erdogan before the May 14 elections and to break the ice as much as possible. Putin is determined to bring Erdoğan and Assad together and Erdoğan wants this. Assad is a bit reluctant, but it is not out of the question for him to say no to Putin. Finally, a diplomatic traffic has begun, which is expected to accelerate the peace efforts in Syria. As of December 28, Iran, which had been isolated in the face of the US and Israel and had openly supported Russia with arms in Ukraine, was also included in the traffic. Now the quartet format has been adopted.

Now, the Turkey-Syria normalization process is entering the second phase with Iran's participation. On March 8, the Iranian Foreign Minister visited Ankara. The latest situation in Syria was discussed. It was decided that the first meeting in the quadrilateral format would be held at the level of deputy foreign ministers. The deputy ministers are expected to meet in Moscow next week. Previously, the defense ministers and intelligence chiefs met. A meeting of foreign ministers is also expected to take place before the Assad-Erdogan meeting. The ground is being prepared for this. According to the allegations, Putin wants Erdogan to win the 2023 elections. That is why Turkey has allegedly even postponed its natural gas payments until 2024. It is assumed that if the Erdoğan-Esat meeting takes place before May 14, Erdoğan's hand will be stronger in the elections. Putin also wants to finish the job. He is expected to meet Assad in Moscow in 3-5 days.

Is the 2004 Pentagon Map Next?

The Americans may be trying to revive the Pentagon map drawn in 2004. During their visits to Erbil and Haseki, the Kurdish and American sides discussed, and continue to discuss, the US recognition of the independence of the so-called Kurdistan, the permanent prevention of a possible Turkish operation in Syria, the removal of Iranian militias in Syria in return, and the alleviation of Israel's security concerns stemming from Iran. I believe that the aim is not to 'wake up' Turkey as much as possible while all this is being done. 

The PKK issue points to a situation like a "boiling cauldron" between the US and Turkey. After 40 years of conflict with the PKK, it is known that Ankara will not hesitate to engage in hot confrontation with Washington's extensions in Syria if necessary. For this reason, it may be thought that Turkey should continue to sleep.

However, Turkey definitely needs to wake up. Moscow, overwhelmed by the sanctions imposed by the Western world, may welcome the inclusion of a Kurdish card in the game against the US, which will be shuffled in line with Ankara's expectations. Tehran and Damascus, which have kept their distance from Ankara, may act on Ankara's axis for their own self-interest. A vigilant Turkey could overturn the so-called American-Kurdish table that established the Syrian-Iraqi Kurdish state. Thus, I believe that this project, which is a candidate to wrest territory from Turkey in the future, may be stillborn. 

Conclusion

In the end, American and Russian policies are trying to be decisive in the region. In the big picture, YPG, PKK, Barzani and Talabani are included in the equation. First of all, the aim is to establish a Kurdish Regional State in Syria-Iraq. Regardless of who is in power in Ankara, Turkey's need for a Russia that can put aside its ambivalent policies and stand by Turkey on the Kurdish issue is growing in the near term.

To some extent, it is normal that the election frenzy of May 14th has overtaken everything else in Turkey. The government may change, but Turkey's higher interests and expectations will not. The elections should also be viewed in this light.

In this context, it seems that Kurdish voters in Turkey will be torn between Erdogan and Davutoglu. There is a situation that I would call Prison Diplomacy and Politics. I believe that negotiations are taking place through Abdullah Öcalan, the permanent resident of İmralı, and Selahattin Demirtaş, the former co-chair of the HDP. I interpret Demirtaş's extension of an olive branch to Kılıçdaroğlu on behalf of the HDP in this context. I believe that the HDP, as the representative of the Kurdish political movement in Turkey, may find itself with more room to play than ever before, and may want to make good use of its 'key' role that will influence the outcome on the road to May 14. After this hour, Erdoğan will not want to use the card of shutting down the HDP. On the other hand, I can already say that in the near future we will witness Erdoğan's front activating dynamics that will influence voters through İmralı.

In the final analysis, after Ukraine, a Russian-American gambling table was set up in the triangle of Syria, Iraq and Turkey. Bets have been placed. I believe that the balance established in the region after the Second World War is evolving into a strategic imbalance. As a nation, we need to be involved in and follow these developments in our region that closely concern us. We are on the eve of developments that we cannot close our eyes to.