Is There Any Hope for a Armistice in the Russo-Ukrainian War?

As Armistice Negotiations Collapse:

What can I say, it hasn't been too long. I think you think so too. The Istanbul talks, which we felt the arrival of spring to our bones, were so close to the ceasefire between Ukraine and RF. Even though there was not a complete ceasefire, the sounds of cannons and the screams of the sirens stopped, and it was felt that peace was just one step away. How close was the peace, like a sun that broke through the horizon, tearing up. But let's face it, something like "Halley's Comet", which entered our galaxy for the last time in 1986, was seen and disappeared. I don't know, it was like a flash of light in the eye, as if there was a flash, that's all.

Istanbul Meetings:

How close were we to peace? The Istanbul Talks were a great hope for the blood and tears to be stopped. The situation was different for me, I witnessed it closely, I was able to observe the excitement in the statements and the feeling left by the end of the conflicts on the Ukrainian negotiators. I witnessed that feeling personally and breathed that air. I had personally observed the sprouting of spring, the budding of peace and the removal of a flower's petals, in front of the Presidential Labor Office in Beşiktaş. I felt it one-on-one, I can say that I really experienced that concentration of emotion. But let's face it, I have to say reluctantly, as far as I can see, that the ceasefire negotiations have actually collapsed. This is the situation unfortunately. I wish it had not been so, I wish we had not even thought that we would be in the situation we are in today. It should never have been like this, but I regret to say that this is the point reached.

Yes, dear readers, to say this in advance, it has become clear that the authorities in charge of both Russian and Ukrainian ceasefire negotiations in the near future do not intend to engage in serious negotiations in any format in the coming weeks.

Situation of Ukraine:

First and foremost, the independence process of the Ukrainian people, who believed in liberal democracy, took place in a different way from other countries that followed the Soviet Union, and just like in Western democracies, it was presented to the public. With the referendum held in December 1991, this decision was accepted with more than 90 percent of the votes and Leonid Kravchuk was elected by popular vote as the first President of Ukraine with 61.5% of the votes. On August 24, 1991, the Ukrainian Parliament (Verhovna Rada-Supreme Council) declared the independence of Ukraine.

In order to maintain the current status quo, Ukraine decided to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1994, as well as applying to NATO together with Russia. What a great and exemplary pacifism. In this framework, NPT Depositor countries signed the Budapest Memorandum (N9450764.pdf (un.org)) with the RF, USA and England. With the memorandum, security guarantees were given to Ukraine by the three countries and the nuclear weapons in Ukraine were transferred to the RF [approximately 1900 warheads, 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 44 strategic warplanes (www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Ukraine) -Nuclear-Weapons)] (1).

Ukraine's Abandonment of Nuclear Weapons:

RF, USA and UK, these three countries, among other obligations, they respect Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity, that they will avoid the threat of using force against Ukraine's territorial integrity and independence, and that they will not use their weapons against Ukraine, except for the UN Charter and self-defense situations. have confirmed that they will not use nuclear weapons unless they, their affiliates, their armed forces and their allies are attacked.

Now you have to ask, right? What happened? Could Putin's somehow challenge the balance of terror to Ukraine to the entire world if they had even retained even one percent of the nuclear warheads they delivered? I'm telling you frankly, he couldn't even be passed by, even his rhetoric was not taken into account. But come on, Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons, if necessary, by instructing his nuclear forces to prepare, contrary to his existing obligations in both the NPT and the Budapest Memorandum. Being a state is being able to stand behind the agreements made. The possibility of the RF using nuclear weapons, even at a tactical level, has caused great concern in Europe. The uneasiness caused by the possibility of dropping a nuclear warhead on Ukraine at tactical level, albeit in small kilotons, has reached enormous dimensions. It has almost become “worse than what happened”. The fact that the threat of nuclear weapons is being talked about by the RF, which has become highly probable, dictates a situation that is worse than its realization.

Putin's Justified War on Denazification and Demilitarization:

While intervening in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Putin deliberately broadened his political goal in Ukraine, revealing it as "Denazification" (De-Nazism) and "Demilitarization" (Demilitarization). As he stated in his speech that day, he not only drew the political vision of the RF, but also shouted that the rapprochement between Ukraine and NATO would never be acceptable. Of course, Dugin's Eurasian view against Atlanticism dictated this. The Kremlin did not refrain from expressing on every occasion that it could undertake to bring peace to Donbass as a missionary task, as a basis and pretext for the Ukrainian intervention. Putin had openly stated that the people in Donetsk and Luhansk, who feel Russian and speak Russian, have been oppressed and persecuted by the Ukrainian administration since 2014, and that he can definitely achieve this even if he stays alone. Yes, that's how the operation started. So said Zarathustra (thus spoke zarathustra) But Friedrich Nietzsche also stated clearly in this book, remember:

“Stay away from being unfair to the lonely, how can the lonely forget! How does he take it out? It's like a bottomless pit. A stone can be thrown into it: But tell me, if this stone reaches the bottom, who can get it out? Beware of hurting alone! If you hurt, don't wait, kill!”

However, during an operation approaching two months, it was seen that the conventional forces of the RF could not reach a force structure that could not even seize Eastern Ukraine, since they could not modernize them sufficiently.

The Kremlin Revised Its War Plans:

After this situation became clear on the field, the Kremlin focused on seizing at least the entire cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, while Kyiv hopes that it can try to squeeze the Russian army into the Donbass region with the counter-attacks it plans to keep in this region. In other words, the Kremlin probably hopes to seize at least the entire cities of Donetsk and Luhansk before continuing negotiations. (2)

Incidentally, the Kremlin is also trying to reframe its limited operation as a Western war against Russia. It is expected that, on May 9, the day the Soviet Union defeated the Nazis in 1945, Russian leader Putin can voice his second challenge, adding new parameters to his challenges, by blaming the West for helping Zelensky to a large extent.

The Kuvayi Milliye Spirit in Ukraine:

On the other hand, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak stated on April 9 that Ukraine was ready to pay a high price for victory and that Ukrainian military victories in the east would provide significant leverage to negotiate “strong” security guarantees with the Kremlin. It makes it clear that he's in.

Podolyak and the President of Ukraine Volodamir Zelensky separately emphasized on April 11, 2022 that Ukraine is not ready to “give up lands for peace”. The anger of the Ukrainian people in the face of the brutality of the Russian Army and foreign fighters in the field against Ukrainian civilians also reveals that Ukraine can reinforce its reluctance to negotiate with the Kremlin, and that the people can now consolidate their determination and decision to fight with the "whatever happens, let's die" approach. It should not be forgotten that perhaps the most dangerous weapon, one of the sine qua non of the total war, is the fact that it is the people who have believed.

Conclusion:

It is regrettable to express that the political-military climate based on peace, security and stability, established in the last periods of the Cold War in Europe, has not been replaced by an environment that can turn into insecurity, an arms race and a cold war again. Our hope is that, while the drums of the new world order are starting to be played again, the strong may be right, where the law of the jungle is valid again. It is not the re-establishment of the Yalta period. The slow but determined progress of humankind along the evolutionary line dictates a new order, dear readers. No one should be worried about this.

Footnotes

(1) Ufuk GÜNEŞ, Rusya Federasyonu (RF)-Ukrayna “Savaşı”, Bölgesel Güvenlik ve

Avrupa Güvenliği ile Güvenlik ve Silahsızlanma Düzenlemeleri Üzerine Olası Etkileri, TASAM, 29 Mar 2022; https://tasam.org/tr-TR/Icerik/69067/rusya_federasyonu_rf- ukrayna_savasi_bolgesel_guvenlik_ve_avrupa_guvenligi_ile_guvenlik_ve_silahsizlanma_duzenlemeleri_uzerine

_olasi_etkileri/Erişim tarihi 17.04.2022/

(2) Frederick W. Kagan, Kateryna Stepanenko ve Karolina Hird, “Rus Taarruz Harekâtı Değerlendirmesi”, 16 Nisan” ISW, 16 Nisan 2022; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment- april-16/Erişim Tarihi 17 Nisan 2022/