On May 14th, could the current government stay in power through elections?
Despite some speculation, the elections on May 14 are expected to take place in a relatively free and fair atmosphere. On the other hand, the government has allegedly been trying to undermine the opposition for quite some time. In recent years, some opposition figures have been targeted by the government. This is seen as an obstacle to the opposition gaining power. The electoral commission is also controlled by the government, as is the Supreme Court. Despite everything, the claim that the opposition is closer to winning remains valid.
General Political Situation in Thailand
Thailand's official form of government has been a Constitutional Kingdom since 1932. King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who ascended the throne in 1946, passed away on October 13, 2016. Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn was proclaimed as the new King of Thailand on December 2, 2016; the King's coronation ceremony was held between May 4-6, 2019.
Thailand has a population of approximately 70 million, with 75% Thai, 14% Chinese, 3% Malay and 8% other ethnic groups. There are approximately 2,000 Turkish citizens living in Thailand. On the other hand, it is known that there are approximately 800 Thai citizens residing in Turkey for various reasons.
Following the military's seizure of power in 2014, elections were held on March 24, 2019, resulting in the formation of a coalition government including many smaller parties. Following the formation of the new Parliament, the Senate and the Thai Parliament consist of a 250-member Senate and a 500-member House of Representatives. Senators are appointed and members of parliament are popularly elected. Prayut Chan-o-cha was elected as the 29th Prime Minister of Thailand on June 5, 2019 by a vote of the House of Representatives.
Assessing that the coalition was not governing the country well, the new King felt the need to dissolve the parliament, just before the end of the four-year term of the House of Representatives. The Thai Election Committee then announced May 14 as the election date, the same date as in Turkey. Voting is considered a compulsory civic duty in Thailand, which is ruled by the kingdom. In the country of 70 million people, approximately 52 million people are eligible to vote.
Thailand is a self-sufficient country, especially in the field of agriculture, with a rising level of industrialization, generating most of its income from tourism, foreign trade and foreign investment, and with a very good capital accumulation and investment capacity. Due to its central geographical location in the South East Asia region, it is seen as a country that many countries attach importance to developing their relations.
Situation Before the May 14 Elections
There is a junta in the country that came to power in 2014 with a military coup. The military coup continued to rule the country without touching the king. The leader of the military junta, General Prayut Chan-o-cha, has ruled the country as 'Prime Minister' for nine years without interruption, despite the election in 2019. On May 14, Prayut is running under the United Thai People's Party.
Prime Minister Prayut's strongest challenger is 36-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leader of the opposition Pheu Thai Party. He belongs to a family that has a say in the country's politics. She is the daughter of former Thai Prime Minister Taksin Shinavatra. Former Thai Prime Minister Taksin Shinavatra was removed from office in 2006 by a military coup, accused of corruption and disrespect for the king.
Yinglak Shinawatra, the brother of former Prime Minister Taksin Shinawatra, followed his brother to power in 2011, but a faction accusing him of being a "puppet of his brother" rose up against him. When Yinglak failed to quell the uprising of those calling for his resignation, the Thai army, commanded by General Prayut, seized power on May 22, 2014. Prayut, then Commander of the Royal Thai Army, became Prime Minister of the military government that ruled the country between 2014 and 2019. Former General Prayut ran as the candidate of the junta-backed Palang Pracharath (People's State Power) Party in the elections held in March 2019, and was reinstated as prime minister after the elections by a joint vote of the House of Representatives, composed of elected MPs, and the Senate, composed of military officers appointed by the junta.
An election race between Paetongtarn and Prayut is now expected to take place. According to the latest polls in the country, Paentongtarn is the closest candidate to win the election. Another rival of the current Prime Minister and junta leader Prayut is Thai Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who was in his government.
The May 14 general elections are expected to be tense due to the country's economic woes in recent years and political instability during the transition period. Since the current government has failed to offer a solution to the economic crisis in the country, it is seen as the most likely scenario that the opposition will overwhelmingly take the lead in these elections and Paetongtarn will have a say in the future of the country as the new prime minister.
Even if Thailand's national elections to be held on May 14 result in a landslide victory for the opposition, the military's stance is said to be the main factor that will determine the outcome. The military, which is expected to side with the king and the current prime minister, is feared to be part of efforts to manipulate the results despite the people's preference. The 2014 coup was already a setback for democratic life, and this would be a catastrophic setback for democratic life.
Prime Minister Prayuth is a semi-autocratic leader. Although he has failed to manage the economy and the pandemic well, he has lost a lot of popularity due to his harsh attitude towards the reactions against him. Everyone says that if the elections are truly free, Prayuth will not be the winner. Meanwhile, like Prayuth, King Maha Vajiralongkorn is also an autocratic figure. He has gained more power and authority than his father, especially over public finance, politics and strategic issues.
On the US side, Thailand's elections are important. The US is concerned about Thailand's drift towards autocracy and its closer ties with China, to the detriment of American interests. For this reason, there is increasing American urging for as free and fair elections as possible. If Thailand's May 14 elections can bring about a change towards democracy, it is hoped that this will spread to other countries in the region. The new government is expected to boost US-Thai relations and to address the country's strategic dependence on China.
If the opposition wins a major victory, how will the military react?
Meanwhile, there have been suggestions that the Thai Army could lead a coup approved by King Vajiralongkorn if it sees no other option. Although polls show the opposition with an overwhelming lead, there is talk that the military and the king may not allow the formation of an opposition-controlled government. For a military that has carried out 13 successful coups in total, there is no doubt that May 14 could be the 14th coup. This possibility is always there.
In any case, if the military cooperates with the king and thwarts the will of the people, there are fears that the political decline in the region, including Myanmar, could accelerate. Such a course of action could also deal a heavy blow to US-Thai relations at a time of heightened regional instability. After the 2014 coup, Bangkok's rapprochement with Beijing could further distance itself from Washington.
The United Thai People's Party, which Prayuth leads and which is supported by the military, is estimated to have 14 percent of the vote among Bangkokians. This translates into a handful of seats in parliament. Another senior politician with links to the military, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, is the leader of the Palang Pracharat Party. Prawit is a more adept politician, but his party is far from being the preferred party of the electorate.
The largest opposition party in the country is Pheu Thai, led by populist businessman Taksin Shinawatra, although it no longer has an official role. Notably, another leading opposition party, the Progressive Movement, initiated a dialog with the Crown last year about the monarchy and the laws protecting it. For Thailand, where the current laws protect the monarchy, it is considered an important step to start discussing these laws. The party, which is particularly popular among young Thais, is willing to take part in a coalition government depending on the election results, although it is in a serious battle with Pheu Thai for opposition votes.
Despite some speculation, elections are expected to be held on May 14 in a relatively free and fair atmosphere. Prior to that, however, it is alleged that the military-monarchical structure led by Prayuth has been trying to undermine the opposition for quite some time. It is alleged that the election was deliberately moved to May 14, the same day that university students who have openly shown their support for the opposition will take their exams. In addition, thousands of dissidents have been targeted by the government in recent years. This is seen as an obstacle to the opposition gaining power in the country.
In addition, the election commission, like Thailand's highest court, is controlled by Prayuth's allies. Under Thai law, for a party or coalition to form a government, it must win a majority in the lower house and a majority in the 250-member Senate, the country's upper house, which is controlled by the military.
In any case, the opposition is expected to win a major victory on May 14. The latest estimates suggest that Pheu Thai alone could win an absolute majority in the 500-seat lower house. Some polls show that voters prefer Taksin's charismatic daughter Paetongtarn to other possible leaders by a two-to-one margin. Polls suggest that around 67 percent of Thais would vote in favor of the opposition.
Conclusion
Turkish and Thai voters go to the polls on the same date, May 14. In both countries, the current governments are accused of being autocratic. In both countries, there are evaluations and speculations that if the will of the people favors the opposition, the current governments may resort to various means in order not to hand over the seat of power to the opposition.
In a sense, it is not possible for us to say anything about Thailand, but let me express that I see these interpretations for my beautiful country Turkey as a bit far-fetched speculations. If our people say Kılıçdaroğlu and the People's Alliance at the end of the elections, Erdoğan and the People's Alliance will undoubtedly hand over 21 years of power to its new owner in a democratic maturity, in accordance with the will of the people. I find it 'unseemly' for our country's democracy and 100 years of Republican culture to even talk about the opposite situation and allegation.
In short, I expect a fair election on May 14th and I sincerely believe that it will be so. No one can bear the consequences of the opposite situation.
Reference:
CNN News, "Thailand election date updated to May 14," March 21, 2023, https://www.cnnturk.com/dunya/taylandda-secim-tarihi-14-mayis-olarak-guncellendi
Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, "Thailand's Elections Are a Critical Moment for the Kingdom-and the Region", 17 April 2023, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/thailands-elections-are-critical-moment-kingdom-and-region
Thailand's Political Outlook, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Website, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/tayland-siyasi-gorunumu.tr.mfa
Son Dakika, "Thailand dissolves parliament ahead of May elections", March 20, 2023, https://www.sondakika.com/haber/haber-tayland-da-mayis-secimleri-oncesi-parlamento-15710543/
