"Sleeping with a bear"
Given Turkey's support for Ukraine in this war, could Russia use these balances as an opportunity to influence the elections in Turkey in its favor, or could Turkey be unwittingly being pulled towards a point by flattering public opinion?
We have heard serious suspicions and accusations that Russia interfered in the US elections and Brexit in the UK by using its cyber capabilities and tools to influence public opinion. In this context, one can only wonder whether Russia might try to influence the upcoming elections in Turkey in some way. Could this grain corridor incident be the trigger for such suspicions? Here's the thing:
The grain corridor agreement signed in July has been hailed as a success of Turkey and Mr. President. The grain corridor agreement signed in July was covered in the domestic and foreign press as a success of Turkey and Mr. President. But a few days ago, Russia suddenly announced that it was unilaterally halting shipments under the grain deal. As Haber Turk reported, the Russian Consulate General in Istanbul issued a vague statement saying, "Despite Russia's steps to stabilize the situation in the world food markets, the "Collective West" continues to indiscriminately accuse Russia of deepening the global food security crisis."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, on the other hand, said of Russia's suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement, "The agreement is not very workable, Ukraine's actions have damaged it." "The grain deal is risky and not guaranteed," Peskov said, and did not answer a question about the conditions under which they could continue the agreement.
Note: This article was previously published on Malatya.time website on November 3, 2022.
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Now, when we look at the course of events after this point, during the 3-4 day crisis that started on October 29 and ended on November 2, Turkey announced that it had solved the problem with a negotiation traffic involving the national defense minister.
Now, as the saying goes, "if we play devil's advocate", what comes to mind is this. Could this sudden crisis be Putin's attempt to influence the upcoming elections in Turkey? In this way, did Putin support Mr. Did Putin support Mr. Erdogan, or is he trying to influence Turkey in a covert way now that about 60% of the ships reaching their destination have unloaded their cargo in Turkish ports? Or both? In other words, is Putin killing "two birds with one stone" or is Putin's skill so advanced that he can kill three or four birds with one stone?
Because given that Turkey is also supporting Ukraine in this war, could Russia use these balances as an opportunity to influence the elections in Turkey in its favor, or could Turkey be unwittingly being pulled towards a point by flattering public opinion?
Moreover, Putin made a statement after the resolution of this latest crisis, demanding that Ukraine guarantee that it will not repeat its aggression in the Black Sea. In this way, Putin is making a strange demand that there will be no aggression against him in the Ukrainian territories he occupies. Is Russia, by demanding such a guarantee, trying to legitimize (at least in Turkey's eyes) its occupation of this territory through a humanitarian deal such as the grain corridor, and tacitly (at least in Turkey's eyes) amidst Turkey's "triumphalism"?
Considering our relations with Russia so far (let's say recently), we need to think carefully about what the consequences of "getting into bed with the bear" are or will be for us, given how Russia has benefited every time. Moreover, the difficulties of the electoral process should not undermine our national interests.
I would like to take this opportunity to caution that we should not make foreign policy an election issue. Because the consequences of foreign policy have an impact beyond the term of office or even the lifetime of political parties.
According to another report on the HaberlerCom website; Putin stated that the grain ships were going to Europe instead of poor countries and that he would discuss the issue with President Erdoğan. According to another claim, Russia cited recent attacks on the Russian fleet in the Black Sea as the reason for abandoning the deal. According to another statement, the security problems faced by its ships and the reasoning that it could not sell its fertilizer to the world were also effective in this decision.
As a result, this crisis, which started on October 29th. It was resolved again upon Mr. Erdogan's initiatives. This news was reported in the Turkish press. Erdogan's great diplomatic success. According to TRT, congratulations poured in from around the world. According to the President himself, Turkey has "made the global food crisis relatively less severe" thanks to this agreement. "It has made efforts to deliver this wheat to countries facing the threat of hunger" and in the latest crisis, "Turkey's diplomatic successes tend to be a beacon for the Turkish century".
Putting all these explanations aside for a moment and looking at how the grain shipment works, here is the picture that emerges. According to Anadolu Agency, 105 ships have left Ukrainian ports since the agreement entered into force. 66 of them have not yet reached their destinations. There is no information on where they have gone. However, 21 of the 39 ships that have reached their destinations have discharged their cargo in Turkish ports. 3 have reached Romania, 4 to Italy, 1 to Spain, 4 to Egypt, 1 to Israel and 1 to Djibouti, the only poor country among all these. Therefore, it is obvious that this agreement has worked in favor of Turkey the most so far.
