The role of Ankara in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Georgia, a small, democratic, former Soviet Republic in the Caucasus, to block the NATO membership process. Unfortunately, on the morning of August 8, 2008, no one came to the aid of Georgia. Despite all objections, Russia encouraged the two small parts of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to declare "independence" and took these two separatist regions under its protection. In fact, he added these regions to his lands. This invasion method has now been used as a "playbook" for Russia. On the other hand, the Western world did not want to see the invasion of Georgia and did not take steps to deter the Russians.

As a matter of fact, in 2014, its neighbor Ukraine, which is larger than Georgia, made Crimea a part of its territory with a similar method. The West did not want to see the Crimean invasion again and was content with taking weak steps to deter the Russians.

On the morning of February 24, 2022, it declared that it recognized the independence of the separatist Luhansk and Doentsk administrations in the Donbas region of southeast Ukraine. Moreover, he was not satisfied with this, and on the axis of progress towards the regions of Kiev from the north and Odessa from the south, he launched an almost all-out attack in order to bring Ukraine to its knees. Meanwhile, Putin consistently rejects his plans to invade Ukraine, but continues to invade Ukraine!

Vladimir Putin started a major land war in Europe, ignoring global condemnations and gradual new sanctions. Intimidating the United States and NATO, he referred to his country's nuclear arsenal. He openly threatened countries that might try to hinder the Russians' advance on Ukrainian territory, with a rhetoric like "you will suffer consequences you have never seen before".

Despite this challenge, the West again followed an ambivalent policy and was content with only introducing "controlled" sanctions to stop the Russians. He did not want to develop an "eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth" attitude.

Ian Fleming, author of the James Bond novels; “If someone shoots at you, the first can be seen as a coincidence, the second as an accidental event, but the third is necessarily a hostile act,” he says. We're not making a James Bond movie, but shouldn't it be time for the West to see Putin's actions? Today, with a conscious choice, ignoring international law, Russia violated Ukraine's borders and declared war on this country. What else is the Western world waiting for to stop the Russians?

The Biden Administration has not taken any action beyond warning and even giving a date that "the Russians will attack". It only continues to provide intelligence support by flying over Ukraine with Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicles stationed in Sicily. He reiterated even on February 24 that he did not intend to stop the Russians on Ukrainian soil with a de facto talk of power. In that case, why should the Hitler wannabe Putin stop?

Major sanctions against the Russian economy, including expulsion from the SWIFT system, cannot help stop Russian soldiers. Although Nord Stream 2 has been closed, it is not an important sanction for the Russians. Even if military aid is given to the Ukrainians, it cannot be considered sufficient. The Russian soldier will not and will not stop until he sees the American soldier on the field. For the last 10-15 years, why does the USA, which sends its soldiers to the forefront for Korea, avoid performing similar actions for Georgia and Ukraine?

As far as he can see, the Russian troops will continue to advance until the Kiev government falls. As soon as the current government falls, Ukraine will be finished for the West. When the legitimate government of Kiev, elected by Ukrainians who believe in liberal democracy, is overthrown, it will be the Western regimes, not just Zelensky, that will be overthrown. Ukraine will be left to the puppeteer.

NATO Secretary General stated that “The Alliance strongly condemns Russia's unjust and unjustified attack on Ukraine and NATO fully supports Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity”. A meaningless statement.

What can Ankara do?

Turkey is an important regional power. Although the Black Sea region has been in geopolitical rivalry with Russia for a long time in the Caucasus, the Balkans and the Middle East, it has continued to be in an understanding with this powerful northern neighbor, especially in the field of economy and in political relations regarding some regional issues. Although Turkey has partially strained ties with the leading members of the alliance from the outside, it has always been a loyal NATO member and acted with this awareness.

Today, some tensions with NATO members and the sanctions imposed by some have not prevented Turkey from maintaining its commitment to NATO. As an extension of Turkey's regional interests and historical backgrounds that differ from NATO, it may have different interests from other members. Because Turkey has an extremely difficult geostrategic position. In this geography, in line with the requirements of geopolitics, even if it is not compatible with NATO's interests, Turkey does not want to defend its own rights and interests until the end. 

He needs a tight defense.

For example, in the current situation, Turkey's vital interest is that the northern belt does not come under complete Russian domination. The existence of a strong and independent Ukraine to balance Russia's power in the Black Sea region is in Turkey's favour.

Turkey strives to display an open attitude towards its allies in NATO, to reach consensus within the Alliance for its own interests, and to seek solutions that the Alliance itself can accept as a result of negotiations as much as possible.

Turkey also maintains its policy of open attitude towards Russia and Ukraine, and takes care to pursue an active neutrality policy in the war that started between the two sides on February 24. Here, what is meant by the expression "Open Attitude" is that Turkey notifies/declares its own expectations and intentions, such as its neutrality, to the warring parties, allies and the international community, and does not engage in covert activities. “Active neutrality”, on the other hand, means that Turkey does not engage in activities that may harm the warring parties and directly affect/trigger the crisis. Continuing to carry out other non-war bilateral activities, maintaining relations with all warring parties, and following it as a part of Turkey's policy. Since Turkey will display an attitude and stance that cannot fully meet the expectations of both sides, it can continue to maintain its position in line with rational justifications. He may be making an effort for peace. As a result of this attitude, it can come to the fore as a country where the warring parties can trust, gain their respect, and play a key role between the warring parties when necessary as a close neighbor. This role can bring about a global output for regional peacebuilding.

The 1936 Montreux Convention gave Turkey control of the Istanbul and Dardanelles Straits. Contrary to Zelenksy's expectation, it cannot possibly be used as a weapon against the Russians. Since the deterioration of the balances in the access to the Black Sea will increase the possibilities of conflict in this sea and may invite new instability and conflicts that may ultimately be to the detriment of Turkey, it cannot be expected that Turkey will make any concessions from this international agreement, which it sees as vital to its interests.

However, Ankara can continue conventional arms sales to Ukraine. Military supplies that Turkey provides as "commercial" sales may not be considered game changers as they are not seen as asymmetric threats and capabilities for the Russians. Unless there is a clear objection from Moscow, Turkey's current cooperation in arms sales to Ukraine and in the defense industry may continue. If a new government is formed in Kiev, the possibility of re-evaluating relations between the two countries is a separate issue.

In any case, Moscow and Ankara are in regular contact in order to prevent their differences on various issues from getting between them and turning into a conflict. As the President of an active neutral country, Erdogan offered to mediate between Kiev and Moscow in the current crisis. If there is to be a meeting between the warring parties, it can be expected that it will be through Ankara. Both sides welcome this option.