Turkey's areas of interest and spheres of influence

There were times when foreign policy came to the fore in the Republican era. The years of the Lausanne negotiations, the end of the 1930s when the Hatay problem was experienced, the period of the Straits issue, the period just before and after the Second World War, the Korean War and the 1950s, when the political, economic and military cooperation with the USA was experienced, the 1960s and 70s In the years when the Cyprus problem was felt intensely…

Turkey managed to get out of all these periods without being damaged by using both its military and diplomatic abilities. Turkish foreign policy, as a country on the axis of the West, has been shaped in an environment where it is "not a party" to the problems of the surrounding countries. In the same period, many developments and radical changes were experienced in our neighbors. There was a coup and EU accession processes in Greece, the regime changed in Iran, there was a war that lasted for 10 years between Iran and Iraq, our great neighbor USSR was dissolved, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia became our new neighbors after this disintegration, Bulgaria left the eastern bloc and EU. Iraq was invaded by the USA. Even during the coup periods, when undemocratic management changes were experienced in this turbulent geography, Turkey did not make a significant change in its foreign policy. Of course, this is called stability and Turkey has been rewarded for this by finding a place for itself in international organizations. NATO membership, European Council membership of which we are a founding member, EU candidate country status, being a member of the UN Security Council twice are the results of the stable foreign policy in these periods.

Turkey has changed its foreign policy understanding since 2010. During the period, with a new perspective, discourses such as zero problems with neighbors, the leading country in its region and even the Neo Ottoman were brought to the agenda, and a new relationship model was introduced with Arab countries, especially with our southern neighbors. What a coincidence that, right after that period, movements for changing the political regimes of Arab countries, which we call the Arab Spring, started one after another. When we reveal this relationship, we are inevitably looking for the fingerprints of the USA and Western countries, which are planning to liquidate the opposition regimes in the Arab countries one by one, in Turkey's foreign policy change that we are talking about. In this new foreign policy initiative, Turkey came into contact with groups close to the political Islamic thought, called the Ikhwan, which are in opposition especially in Arab countries. In this way, the situation of "being a party" has emerged. In fact, the support given to the opposition in the civil war in Syria emerged on a military scale, and then TAF units were deployed in Somalia, Qatar and Libya.

The use of force in foreign policy, namely military solutions, is the last method used. Diplomacy is the art of solving problems without the use of force. We are aware that we live in a geography with many variables that we cannot control and which contains risks. Except for the Pax Romana and Pax Ottoman periods when peace was dominant, our geography has produced constant crises, problems and wars. If we think of military solutions as a spark, wherever we put these solutions into action, we should also consider the possibility that we will be faced with a fire that we cannot put out in an instant in our nearby geography.

Currently; The situation in Syria in general and Idlib in particular includes risks. The regions where the terrorist organization is based in Syria and Iraq pose a danger to our security. Provocative events can develop at any time in the natural gas exploration areas in the Eastern Mediterranean and in the Aegean islands.

You may ask when we should solve our national interests by using military force. If there is an intervention in our domain, the answer to this question should be immediately without hesitation. However, the priority for our area of ​​interest is diplomacy.

I will try to explain the scope of the answer in terms of influence and interest. What is meant by the domain; It is the geography where every event will affect the homeland. It is Cyprus where our compatriots live, the Aegean where we have sovereign rights, Afrin, Al Bab, Rasulayn, Sincar, and Kandil lines that pose a direct threat to the country. Turkey will implement proactive policies in these regions and of course use its military power when necessary. It is also right to use it for safety. Our area of ​​interest is the regions where medium and long-term changes and developments will initially indirectly affect our country over time. Our area of ​​interest is a wider geography that includes the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Black Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.
For our area of ​​interest, preventive diplomacy must be carried out.

Turkey should define the homeland, sphere of influence and area of ​​interest as soon as possible in its foreign policy. The security of the Turkish Cypriot community, our sovereign rights in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean, and a satellite state to be established on our southern borders should be considered as our red lines, but Ukraine, which is outside our sphere of influence, is in our area of ​​interest. Bosnia or Jerusalem should not be defined as red lines for Turkish foreign policy. The more red lines, the more pink it turns out.

We should propose anti-problem policies in our area of ​​interest; We must let all our neighbors, far and near, know that we are involved in creating a solution, not a problem, and that we will be at the table as a conciliator and mediator. Issues such as refugee problems, reducing regional tensions, regional cooperation, security of oil and natural gas pipelines should shape our area of ​​interest. We should strengthen our position by taking an active part in international organizations. We should lead formations such as the Organization of Turkish States or the Organization for Peace and Cooperation in the Middle East. The support given to Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict is valuable. However, we must refrain from taking sides while making political moves in our areas of interest.

The biggest mistake to be made in foreign policy is to attempt things that will create years of hostility between peoples, such as Turkish-Arab and Turkish-Persian enmity. In summary; If we want zero problems in our region, the way to do it is to set our political priorities and be a part of the solutions, not the problems.