Ukraine War Offers Turkey, Saudi Arabia and India an Opportunity to Increase Their International Influence

Ukraine War

On the morning of February 24, 2022, the world woke up to a war that went beyond the devastation in Ukraine, casting a shadow over global relations and upsetting all balances in the world. After occupying Crimea in 2014, the Russian army was now attacking from all four sides to occupy the whole of Ukraine. However, Russia realized that Ukraine, with the active support of the West, was not an easy bite to swallow. This war, which is ongoing despite the fact that it already occupies 27% of Ukraine, has so far been disastrous for Russia. An invasion that was supposed to subjugate Ukraine, weaken the West and strengthen the Kremlin has not brought Putin the success he expected. Ukrainian nationalism has skyrocketed. Kiev moved further away from Moscow and closer to Europe. It reinforced the need for NATO's presence. It lost Finland and Sweden to NATO, and therefore to the United States, which needed to remain neutral in order to penetrate the Arctic. The Kremlin has seen, and will see, that this strategic mistake is now dramatically shifting the balance of power in Northern Europe against Russia.  

Although the war exposed Russia's military weaknesses, the Russian economy, subjected to heavy Western sanctions, has survived. It has largely managed to adapt to the sanctions. It is not possible to predict when the war will end. Last year, Russia announced that it had recruited 300,000 soldiers. Of this fresh force, 50 thousand were deployed to the Ukrainian front. The training of the remaining 250 thousand soldiers continues. Most of those who follow the war predict that a major Russian offensive may begin in the spring and Ukraine, including Kiev and Odessa, will again come under intense fire. If the Russian army succeeds in this major offensive, the war could end with a full occupation of Ukraine.

Ukraine has been under fire from kamikaze drones and cruise missiles purchased by Russia from Iran. Now the American Patriot batteries have come to its rescue. The air defense weapons and systems deployed in Ukraine have brought balance to the war. The Ukrainian army, which captured the western region of Kherson, continues its winter resistance in the Donetsk region, while making preparations to launch a counter-offensive at the beginning of spring. The coordinated maneuver skills of the troops at company and battalion level are being improved with the training provided by American officers. With its firepower increasing, the Ukrainian army is expected to be ready for a strong counter-offensive when the time comes. If successful, the occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, and perhaps Crimea, will be cleared of Russians and Ukraine's territorial integrity will be restored.

Ukraine War and China

In a way, the war in Ukraine has become a proxy war between the Atlantic Basin and the Russian Federation. Ukraine was able to put up a strong resistance. It was able to stop the Russian army. Russia, which was left alone against the West, did not receive any support from China, albeit indirectly, despite receiving arms support even from Iran. However, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been close enough to Russia to publicly embrace Putin. Trade between the two countries was maintained to minimize the impact of the sanctions on Russia. But Beijing did not send weapons. Xi has not sought to provide a solution to Putin's frustrations over the course of the war. Moreover, the Kremlin's threat to use nuclear weapons has caused discomfort not only in the West but also in Beijing. Nevertheless, Beijing continued to pursue a balanced policy. It did not support the occupation and refrained from provoking Western capitals. 

On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine war raised fears that China would attack Taiwan. Although Beijing pursues a 'one-China' policy, it wants to continue its quest to annex Taiwan voluntarily rather than occupy it. It is in no hurry to do so. Beijing knows that an attempted invasion would cost it dearly, that it, like Russia, could be subjected to Western sanctions, and that this would be very damaging for its economy, which is still reeling from the ongoing pandemic. Therefore, a possible invasion of Taiwan seems to have been shelved for now. However, the Russia-Ukraine war has brought the US-China struggle for "hegemony" in the Indo-Pacific region to the fore. Although US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in early August 2022 angered Beijing, it did not prevent Xi from pursuing a smart policy. The meeting between US President Joe Biden and Xi ahead of the G-20 summit reopened the channels of dialog between the two superpowers. 

The war in Ukraine has drawn attention to the search for 'strategic autonomy' by opening up a playing field for medium-sized powers. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and India are among the most prominent countries in this regard.

Turkey

Turkey has experienced a partial break with the Western world, especially after July 15, 2016. Despite being in NATO, it has occasionally cooperated with the Russian Federation, which it sees as a balancing power against the United States. Increased contacts between Erdogan and Putin led to the Astana process in Syria with the involvement of Iran. Cooperation with Russia has given Ankara room to play against the United States, which opposes Turkey, which wants to eliminate the YPG/PKK terrorist threat from Syria to Turkish territory and wants to establish a safe corridor along its border in the south. Turkey, which felt the need to purchase the S-400 air defense weapon systems, was almost punished by being excluded from the F-35 program. However, the Biden administration, which needed Turkey's role in the US military's withdrawal from Afghanistan, recognized Turkey's role in the ensuing war in Ukraine. 

Ankara's close stance to Moscow also played into Washington's hands. Ankara proved to have a strong stance in contrast to the weak influence of Berlin and Paris on Moscow. At the outbreak of the war, Turkey succeeded in bringing the parties together at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum between March 11-13, and became a beacon of hope for peace. Again in July, Turkey, together with the United Nations, brokered an agreement that would allow Ukrainian grain to reach global markets via the Black Sea. In November, Russia extended this agreement for four months. Moreover, the game-changing role of Turkish drones in Libya, Azerbaijan and Syria has been one of the main game-changers in the conflicts there. This success led to increased sales of Turkish-made drones and Turkey's status as an 'arms dealer' in this field. Eventually, Turkey's influence and impact began to grow. 

Saudi Arabia

Like Ankara, the war has opened up new opportunities for Riyadh. The sudden withdrawal of Russian oil from the market has been a boon for OPEC leader Saudi Arabia. Biden, who did not like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman because of his various misdeeds, including the Khashoggi murder, realized that he could not ignore Saudi Arabia and deemed his visit to Riyadh obligatory. Riyadh, together with OPEC + countries, including Russia, led the decisions to restrict oil production and keep oil prices high (supporting Russia in this sense). He signed decisions to increase regional cooperation with China. He did not hesitate to take these steps despite Washington's anger. 

India

India has also chosen to level the playing field in the war according to its own interests. India has taken steps to become a major buyer of Russian weapons such as the S-400 while simultaneously becoming a security partner of the United States. New Delhi has not joined the US-led sanctions. And it has not hesitated to buy Russian oil. However, India was one of the most vocal critics of Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons. 

Conclusion

In the end, the Russian-Ukrainian war partially divided the world into two blocs. On one side were the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and on the other side were Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. 

The mid-sized countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and India saw that they could have the autonomy to chart their own course between the blocs. The vacuum in this area opened up new playing fields for these countries. They have seized the opportunities offered by multipolarity and it seems that they will continue to do so.