US-Israel Tensions Over UNSC Ceasefire Resolution in Gaza: Is the US Withdrawing Support from Israel in Gaza?

The Israeli offensive in Gaza has been going on for more than five months. The increasing number of civilian casualties and the extraordinarily poor living conditions that the people of the region are exposed to have led to increasing pressure on Israel to cancel the planned operation to Rafah and to ensure a ceasefire as soon as possible. While it is possible that Israel may agree to a ceasefire that would allow the release of some of the hostages, it seems determined to carry out the Rafah operation that will enable Hamas to eliminate its remaining elements. Once the operation in this area south of Gaza is completed, Israel will have achieved its military objective.

Netanyahu is taking advantage of the national and international outrage caused by the Hamas attack of 7 October to carry out a massacre with reckless abandon, even to the point of genocide allegations. However, it is doubtful that he will be so relaxed in the arrangement that will emerge after the end of the conflict. Under pressure from domestic public opinion, the US is stepping up its efforts for a ceasefire and post-conflict order in the region. Indeed, US Secretary of State Blinken, on his sixth visit to the region since the start of the conflict, met with Egyptian President El-Sisi and the Foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority on 21 March. On 25 March, he abstained on a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution calling on the parties to an immediate ceasefire during Ramadan. The US had previously vetoed similar resolutions. Following the UNSC resolution, Netanyahu cancelled the delegation's trip to the United States to hold talks on the Rafah operation and declared his determination to carry out the operation. 

The objective of Israel's military operation in Gaza is clear: To completely eliminate the military threat to Israel from Gaza by destroying the political and military structure of Hamas. However, it remains unclear what kind of political structure Israel envisages after the military operation is completed. 

It is understood that the US administration is in search of an arrangement that will ensure an inclusive peace in the region with the support of other Arab countries. Prior to 07 October, it is known that the US held talks with Saudi Arabia on a plan that includes a solution to the Palestinian problem. According to this plan, in return for Saudi Arabia's normalisation of relations with Israel, the US would provide Saudi Arabia with certain security guarantees, including arms sales and support for a civilian nuclear programme, while Israel would take concrete steps towards the implementation of a two-state solution in Palestine. This plan can be seen as a continuation of the process initiated by the US with the Abraham Accords. In this process, Israel signed agreements with Bahrain, the UAE, Tunisia and Sudan, while Saudi Arabia was left out of this process. Meanwhile, in March 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia decided to normalise relations under the mediation of China. China's presence in the struggle for influence in the region has led the US to increase its efforts. A long-term alliance between Iran and Saudi Arabia could have completely shaken the US's Israel-centred policy in the region. As a matter of fact, the question of who actually benefited from the 07 October Hamas attacks, which had an impact that shook all the balances in the region, still occupies the minds. It is understood that the US wants the post-Gaza war order to be part of a comprehensive plan that includes other Arab states in the region as it did before 07 October. In this plan, it wants to prepare the necessary infrastructure for a two-state solution in the long term by ensuring the control of post-conflict Gaza by the Palestinian Authority. Indeed, it is claimed that Palestinian President Abbas' appointment of Mohammad Mustafa as the new Prime Minister on 14 March was motivated by the idea that the Palestinian Authority could assume a more effective role after the end of Israel's occupation of Gaza.

Netanyahu has long opposed the idea of the Palestinian Authority also controlling Gaza. In fact, it is claimed that Qatar has helped Hamas to increase its control in the region and to arm itself by ensuring the smooth delivery of in-kind and cash aid to Hamas. According to this view, Netanyahu is pursuing a policy of "divide and rule", allowing the Palestinians limited freedom in a dual structure in which Hamas controls Gaza and the Palestinian Authority controls the West Bank, while continuing the Jewish expansion in the West Bank little by little. If the allegation is true, it became clear on 07 October that this policy was costly. Having learnt the lesson of this policy, Netanyahu will not allow Gaza to come back under the control of a Hamas-like entity. Therefore, after the military objective is achieved, he will surround Gaza with a tight security perimeter, with a structure similar to the one in the West Bank, and while transferring the administrative administration to a Palestinian civilian administration, he will want to create a Palestinian security organisation and retain the freedom to carry out operations against terrorist structures when necessary. With such an organisation, it is not possible to move towards the inclusive solution envisaged by the US, which includes the Palestinian Authority and satisfies the countries of the region. 

Domestic and foreign political factors should also be taken into account in understanding the tension between the US and Israel that has emerged with the UNSC resolution. The Netanyahu government, supported by the far-right parties, was subjected to intense protests before 07 October due to some regulations it wanted to make regarding the Supreme Court. So much so that it was claimed that Hamas attacks could not be prevented due to the internal unrest caused by the protests in which even members of the army participated. In addition, there are ongoing lawsuits against Netanyahu due to corruption allegations. In fact, it was claimed that Netanyahu brought the regulation on the appointment of judges in order to save himself, and this issue was also protested in the demonstrations.  Currently, the country is governed by the Unity Government, which was formed after the Hamas attacks. Following the completion of the Gaza operation, both the investigations against Netanyahu will come to the agenda again and the demands to hold those responsible for 07 October to account will increase. For this reason, Netanyahu wants to come out of Gaza with a complete victory and maintain his political power after the operation. The Biden government is under pressure from both domestic and foreign public opinion. In some of the congresses where the Democratic Party presidential candidate was determined, a significant number of voters expressed their reaction against Biden by casting "uncommitted" votes. On the other hand, the parallelism between the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza calls into question the consistency of the Biden administration's allegations against Russia for violating international law and committing war crimes against civilians.

The US should not be expected to change its policy towards Israel from today to tomorrow. As a matter of fact, its abstention instead of accepting the ceasefire decision shows its cautious attitude on this issue. Despite Netanyahu's latest move, the fact that the Israeli Defence Minister, who is in the US, held meetings with his counterpart and other senior officials points to the continuation of the cooperation between the two countries. Despite this hesitant attitude, it is seen that the support of the Biden administration to the Netanyahu administration at the beginning of the Gaza operation is gradually decreasing. To what extent this attitude will force Israel to accept its own regional plans and to end the Gaza operation, which has caused reactions, will be determined by the struggle between the determination of the US administration and the political ambitions of Netanyahu, who is supported by the far right.