What can China and Turkey jointly do in the tension between the West and Russia?

The Western World and Russia Are Separated From Each Other:

In the rising crisis environment before the Russia-Ukraine War, the tension between the Western World and the Russian Federation, which actually belongs to the Western world in a way, could not be resolved and a sharp rupture came with the outbreak of the war.

The economic-political policy, which US President Biden is following the world based on the distinction between Democrats and Autocrats, has kept the Westerners, the cradle of democracy, together against Putin's autarky. For now, Western countries have managed to unite around common interests and values ​​against Russia's attempt to invade Ukraine.

Ultimately, the American-led global free market dynamics were used to position all states, including China, against Russia. The American sanctions, aimed at stopping Russia and showing that it would not get away with what it did, were also enthusiastically supported by the European Union. Particularly, under the leadership of the USA and the UK, Eastern European countries, especially Poland, and especially the Baltic countries wholeheartedly supported the shipment of weapons and systems, mostly self-defense, which reached Ukraine.

Voting of the UN General Assembly on 2 March:

A week after February 24, during the hottest days of the war, in the UN General Assembly vote held on March 2, 2022, 141 countries condemned Russia's "attack" against Ukraine. Only five countries voted against this condemnation: Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea, Syria and Russia. The remarkable point here was that 35 countries, most of them in the Global South, abstained from this vote and were undecided about which side to take. In fact, this was a sign that the vast majority of abstaining countries gave tacit support to Russia. Many countries, from El Salvador to Equatorial Guinea, from Namibia to Mongolia, abstained. The common feature of these countries, which refrained from publicly condemning Russia, was that they represented the regions most affected by food shortages, breaks in the supply chain, and global price increases, especially energy and commodities.

In fact, many countries do not share the common anger against Russia in the Euro-Atlantic basin. It is known that there is a general indifference in the rest of the world towards Russia's war with the Western World over Ukraine.

For the West, the protection of Ukraine, which has a worldview very close to them, was deemed vitally important. The West, which was not so involved in similar conflicts in the rest of the world, dragged itself into political and intellectual isolation. Western powers have realized that if they lose against the authoritarian regimes represented by Putin, their strategic superiority against the whole world will come to an end.

Interwar Opportunities and the Cereal Shipment Agreement:

The fact that the Russians gave up the siege of Kiev and concentrated on southeast Ukraine brought the Western world's respite and turned to a strategy towards ending this war with the least loss.

West began to look for a way out. In fact, Zelensky was encouraged to accept the current territorial losses and sign a peace treaty through Macron, but this plan fell through when the Ukrainian administration refused to do so.

At the same time, Russian accusations that the West and NATO are responsible for the growing food crisis due to the sanctions imposed on Russia around the world have fed a accepted perception in the countries of the global South and Asia.

In this respect, as a result of the negotiations held under the leadership of the UN and hosted by Turkey, the Cereal Shipment Agreement, which will be signed in Istanbul at 16:00 today, will bring a significant relief to the Western world. In this way, it will be possible to avoid facing food shortages around the world, and thus, Western countries will be spared from being subjected to unnecessary accusations.

However, behind this temporary relief in food supply and security is Russia's consent. In a way, if Russia did not allow it, the countries of the global south would not have been able to avoid facing a possible starvation. Therefore, Russia gained points in the eyes of these countries, and despite being the party attacking Ukraine, it gained a room for maneuver that could increase the number of countries that could vote in favor of it in a future vote at the UN General Assembly.

How to Solve the Coming Natural Gas Problem?

Now a similar situation may apply for gas shipments in the coming autumn period. During the summer period, European countries started a feverish search for gas shipments from various African countries, including Azerbaijani gas. The success of these pursuits can only be seen towards the winter months. If the European continent cannot find the necessary gas in severe cold, political turmoil in European countries in the environment of rising inflation and economic crisis and Western peoples may increase the pressure on their governments to sign agreements that will shelve the sanctions against Russia.

As a result, a compromise with Russia in this direction may cause a wide crack in the Western world, the resolution of the US-led sanctions, even the deprivation of active weapons support for Ukraine and the change in the usual course of the war.

Can China Take a Position for a 'Moderate World'?

Throughout all these ruptures and blockages, the biggest power focus, which is close to keeping the Russian side on a 'moderate' line, is China.

Thus, in this rupture over Ukraine, China's position can be decisive in terms of its stance on the neutral line. If China changes its current position on Russia's side to a "side", although not so clearly, it may soon bring the geopolitical rivalry between the West and the Russian-Chinese camp above the Ukrainian dynamics. China did not allow this, but it did not want to take an open front against Russia. He even did not hesitate to appear on the side of Russia from time to time in line with the interests of China.

An important window of opportunity has been opened for China in terms of keeping Russia under control and convincing Russia against the negative effects of conflicts with the Western world to the whole world. The steps that China will take to achieve reconciliation between the parties may ultimately increase the reputation of this country on the international stage as a global actor, move China to the point of the guarantor of world peace between the West and Russia, and enable the countries of the global South to come closer to China.

Can Turkey Act Together with China?

Turkey, which played an open mediator role at the 11-13 March Antalya Diplomacy Forum, 8-9 June Foreign Ministers' Meetings, the Defense Ministers' Summit and eventually the Grain Shipment Agreement, can take sides with China in the diplomatic efforts that can bring Russia to the "moderate" line on a global scale. In the Syrian context, a tripartite mechanism similar to the Astana process (Russia-Iran and Turkey) can be identified between China-Turkey-Russia. Thus, Turkey can also assume an effective mediation role between the Sino-Russian bloc and the NATO bloc, and lead diplomatic efforts to establish world peace.